This article comes fromWeChat public account: caoz’s dreams (ID: caozsay), author: caoz, title figure from the movie “Whiplash” stills

A few weeks ago, someone in the Moments posted a comment, and I felt it very much. Generally speaking, many chicken soups emphasize the meaning of persistence, but in fact, it is more important to judge what is worth persisting.

Recently, I just saw a paragraph saying that some people insisted on holding shares in Tencent, thus achieving financial freedom; some people insisted on holding shares in XX, and their assets were greatly reduced; some people insisted on holding shares in LeTV, and people have disappeared. .

Duanzi is certainly a joke, but it is also persistence, and the results are indeed very different. Why do I feel so deeply about this? Because at a certain moment in history, I sold a certain stock in Hong Kong stocks. I bought all a certain stock. As a result, the stock I sold has risen dozens of times, while the stock I bought has fallen by almost 90%. If I had not made this choice at the time, I should have been financially free. Look, I’m a joke myself, right?

When I was in high school, in the early 1990s, I wrote an essay called, “If there is a will, it will be done. I still remember, I said that if there is a will, it will be done, it depends. What kind of ambition is it, if it violates the objective laws of natural science, such as creating a perpetual motion machine, it will definitely fail. If it violates the objective laws of social development, such as anti-communist and anti-China conspiracies, it will definitely fail.

Such a vocal article, of course, has become a model essay for a Chinese teacher, and it can be regarded as one of the few high-profile moments in high school. I am very ashamed. Now my political consciousness is obviously not as good as before. I can only talk about workplace, career, and other vulgar things , For high-end topics such as the US election, let other high-conscious and high-quality VIPs play.

Back to the topic, how to judge a career or an investment is worth persisting. I am ashamed that I did not do it myself, but I think everyone should think about this issue seriously. Many stages in lifeThe key decision actually comes from this. It’s very interesting that my own key decisions are often wrong, but the decision-making suggestions I give to others are very accurate. For example, in the early years of my classmates at Tencent, I asked him to hold Tencent stocks if I had nothing to do. , As soon as he talked about trading stocks among his classmates, I would frustrate him, and let him hold Tencent. For example, in the early years, a friend of Ali asked me if I could sell the options in advance before the second listing in the United States. I also urged to keep them. The result was very grateful to me. It really feels like the fans involved and the onlookers are clear.

Then I will also briefly summarize some of my current decision-making perceptions, and hope that young people will not make the mistakes I have made.

First, try to seek the underlying logic

Whether an industry has long-term value. What is the underlying logic? What kind of changes the industry has made to people’s lifestyles, social styles, work styles, and entertainment styles? Will this change be positive or reverse in the long run?

This is the value point of the industry, then we know that some investors like to invest in the track, they are looking for the underlying logic of the industry and choosing the most valuable track.

Instant messaging has changed the way humans socialize.

E-commerce has changed the way people shop.

Search engines have changed the way humans acquire knowledge and information.

Of course, video games have changed the way of entertainment for human beings.

Online car-hailing has changed the way people travel.

So now, many investors see that education methods may need to be changed. This is a huge track; and now more than 80% of shopping behaviors have not changed; this is another huge track.

The underlying logic of the industry requires a certain macro perspective and a certain degree of predictability.

For example, the most correct choice in my life was to firmly regard the Internet as my career choice in the year of graduation. What era was that? At the end of the last century, when there were only a few million Chinese Internet users, the Internet as we know it When most of the giants were not established, the current giants only existed in NetEase, which was just an obscure grassroots website. At that time, how many fresh graduates would regard the Internet as a career choice?

Whether an enterprise has long-term value. What is the underlying logic? The industry has chosen the right one. It’s just WanliThe first step of the Long March is how to choose a company, what is the core competitiveness of this company, and what are the core values ​​of this company.

I’ve said before, why I’ve never been optimistic about LeEco, because LeEco is a typical company that violates my values. White gloves. If you say too much, it’s a shield word. A company that relies on resource relations and financing capabilities. I don’t I think it has sufficient market competitiveness, but during the two years when LeTV was in full swing, frankly, I very much doubted myself whether there was a problem with the values ​​and whether the judgment was no longer credible. Why did I gloat when LeTV collapsed? I’m sorry, I think I guarded my values.

In the Internet age, many professionals and critics made mistakes in their judgments. Many of them overestimated the power of resources and relationships, and underestimated the value of products and services. But frankly speaking, in recent years, more and more cases have proved that in the new market environment, resource relations are gradually surpassing product power.

Enterprise product value, product competitiveness, talent competitiveness, and corporate values ​​are also very important basis for judgment.

But is this enough? Not enough? There is one more thing, the entrepreneurial pattern and vision, and the spirit of contract.

In this field, I sometimes judged correctly and sometimes wrongly, but looking back, when you choose to stick to a career for a long time, you must have a good understanding of the boss’s layout, vision, and contract spirit. Deep insight.

Here are a few important points

If an entrepreneur has a record of disobeying others, don’t think it won’t fall on you.

If entrepreneurs are not willing to share the benefits, the development space of the company will be limited.

Let’s talk about it here, the spirit of contract> entrepreneurial pattern and vision.

Some entrepreneurs have good abilities, but their structure is not high and their vision is limited. However, the early promises of return will be adhered to, and some core employees who joined in the early days have been rewarded very well.

As above, grasp three points:

1. The value of the industry meets the basic demands of human social life and how to change human social life.

2. The core competitiveness of an enterprise, including product value, talent competitiveness, and the basic values ​​of the enterprise.

3. Entrepreneur pattern and credit, among which credit> pattern.

I mentioned it several times before. If you have a general background and a low starting point, you may need to find a springboard company. At this time, give priority to 1 and 2, and the third is going to be reversed. What does this mean? Three All are good, of course the best, but the entry threshold is high, and when you are looking for a springboard, the third way to find the springboard may be the springboard choice with a low entry threshold. Anyway, you have to jump sooner or later, and refresh your resume after learning the skills. Just people, don’t care about temporary gains and losses.

Many people think that the springboard is the second-tier Internet company, and they say that the threshold is also very high. In fact, it is not. It is a bit lower than the second-tier Internet company. It is limited by the entrepreneurial structure and credit, but the Internet companies with good product strength There are a lot. Many are good springboard options. I really don’t dare to name anyone, because it is too offensive to say it.

Second, try to recognize your own value as much as possible

What are you willing to invest in, what are you good at.

Ask yourself a question, if you are a demolished household with tens of millions of suites in your hands, you have no worries about food and clothing, but you feel bored and uncomfortable at home, what do you want to do? Many people think it’s good to stay at home. I dare not say to others, I can’t stay at home.

Many people are confused and ask me about career planning. Many times I don’t want to decide for you. I don’t know what your personality is, what your hobbies are, and what your beliefs are. Some people are outgoing and can’t sit still. Just like to chat with people, you will be tortured crazy if you let him learn technology and become a programmer. Some people are introverted, have low social expression skills, and have symptoms of social fear. If you ask them to engage in market business, they will go crazy.

Some people are good at digging into the camp, they are willing to watch their words and opinions, and think that civil servants are the best choice, why should I stop them; but some people are withdrawn, love technology, and are unreasonable. Then go to a big factory. The route of technical experts is the best choice.

Think clearly about what kind of person you are and what you are suitable for.

If you don’t think about it, you can try. Finding a comfortable and fulfilling development environment is worth sticking to. No matter how good the field is, if you feel uncomfortable, and you fight against others every day, torturing yourself, then there is no need.

TK has taught the master to middle-aged age. Why is he still persisting in the field of information security? For others, this is a game of clearing customs and killing monsters. What kind of persistence is needed to play games?

Thirdly, be sensitive to environmental changes

It is impossible for people to see the future clearly. The industry structure is changing, and the corporate structure is also changing.

A company may be very good for a period of time, surpassing competitors in other industries, but as the market environment changes, it may be conservative, outdated, or even eliminated.

Need to be sensitive to environmental changes.

I mentioned earlier that in the early days of the Internet, product power surpassed everything. I can tell the story of the failure of the resource trap at least in double digits. But now, I dare not say that. Although LeTV has collapsed, it must be out of date to talk about the uselessness of resource relations in an environment of strong government control.

Changes in the policy environment are one aspect, followed by changes in user demands.

What are the demands of those born in the 80s to go online, those born in the 90s are not the same, and those born in the 00s, I found many keywords that I have never heard of.

There were companies that were once very successful, but gradually fell out of date. In fact, nothing was done wrong, but the users of its products are old, and new young people have new choices.

Furthermore, there are changes in the turnover of high-level personnel in the company. If you find that some of the company’s talents with strength and outstanding contributions have left, and the new airborne corps are all sorts of fancy, then the future of this company can be imagined.

When an enterprise develops to a certain stage, there must be the loss and turnover of talents. This is not a big problem. It mainly depends on the value relationship between the replaced talents and the lost talents. Don’t think that losing some great companies is not enough. It is possible for people to retired, or want to start a business, or want to try a new track. But if only the bulls go and no bulls enter, this may explain a lot of problems.

You can make new judgments and choices when you find that the environment has changed and that the market conditions have changed.

Fourth, don’t ALL IN!

Be wary of those who make you ALL IN. When this article was published, it was when many investors called ALL IN blockchain. So the question is, are they ALL IN blockchain? They deleted Weibo and pretended that they had not said it.

There are indeed some successful ALL IN, and the survivors are biased.After all, if you go to a casino, if all in wins, you will definitely win more than not all in. If you only look at the profit list, then all in people have a higher return rate, right? But you can’t see the loser, and Buffett never all in.

I frankly said that I used to make a lot of mistakes in decision-making and lost a lot of opportunities for financial freedom, but the question is, am I poor? I dare not say how rich I am, better than most people in this country. I have always had a bargaining chip. I have never lost all of my money. I always have the opportunity to invest and return. I like to share my lost cases with readers so that readers don’t learn from me. In fact, I also have successful investment cases. If I were Cut the leeks, select the successful cases and package them, or pretend to be an investment master, right, but I know I am not.

Always keep your chips and ammunition in your hand. Don’t envy those who are all in wealth, learn some hedging ideas.

This is true whether it is investment or career.

If you have two sets, you are willing to sell one set to start a business. If you have this determination, it is okay for your family to support you. If you only have one set, I suggest you not be so impulsive.

Remember, life is more than one choice, don’t think that if you miss an opportunity, you lose everything.

You can stick to your own judgment, but you have to keep yourself at all times and have one more choice.

The same is true in the workplace. You like a company and you love a career. Of course you can continue to stick to it. I won’t say this is bad, but keep an eye on other career opportunities, maintain your relationship with headhunters, and maintain your own workplace. Competitiveness means one more choice and one more insurance. If one day, you feel good about yourself when you are thrown away like a rag by your boss, don’t just remember what I said.

The same is true for entrepreneurship. Leave some assets, leave some leeway, and leave some retreat. We say that working hard to start a life will not leave any regrets, but don’t choose the kind of bankruptcy.

This article comes from Public micro-channel number: caoz fudge (ID: caozsay) , Author: caoz