Policies and demand may stimulate sales in the second half of the year.
Editor’s note: This article is from “Future Car Daily” (WeChat public ID: auto-time), author: Xiao Cheng Yi.
Author | Cheng Hao
Edit | Liang Chen
On August 5, Guojin Securities released the observation of the new energy automobile industry chain in August, saying that the subsidy transition period ended in June, and the July rate is about the bottom of electric vehicle sales. The vehicle market is expected to face adjustment in the short term, but still Be optimistic about the gradual recovery.
Guojin Securities said that it will not adjust the sales forecast of 1.6 million new energy vehicles in 2019. In the short-term, the price of new energy vehicles + subsidies have not reached the cost of cash, and car companies still have momentum. In the medium and long term, the double-points policy is expected to support the sales of new energy vehicles and meet the 20% penetration plan in 2025, so July is about the bottom of the industry sales.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers recently issued a notice of sales forecast for new energy vehicles, indicating that the expected sales volume of auto sales for the whole year has been reduced from 28 million at the beginning of the year to 26.68 million, of which the estimated sales of new energy vehicles are 1.6 million. Adjusted to about 1.5 million units. According to the adjusted sales forecast of the China Automobile Association, the growth rate of new energy vehicles in 1919 is only 19.4% (27.4% before adjustment), far lower than the previous growth rate.
In the past five years, new energy vehicles have been growing at multiple levels, with a growth rate of over 60% in 2018. In the first half of this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 617,000, which was 49.6% year-on-year, but it was the lowest in recent years, only 38.56% of the original target. However, compared with previous years, the sales completion rate in the first half of this year has been good. In the first half of 2018, the sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 32.8% of the annual sales volume, and the sales volume in the first half of 2017 only accounted for 25% of the annual sales volume.
For the new energy vehicle market in the second half of 2019, the remaining brokers also released reports.
Guangfa Securities said in its report on the new energy auto industry released on July 31 that it expects to increase in the third quarter. The adjustment period is in June, and the base effect is obvious. After entering July, due to the overdraft factor of the buffer period, the growth rate of the chain will be re-climbed after a short adjustment.
Shanghai Securities expects new energy vehicle installed data to bottom out in July-August and will return to growth in September. Although the subsidy has a large decline this year, factors such as double-point policy and consumption will continue to support the growth of new energy vehicles throughout the year. The acceleration of overseas electrification will also bring new opportunities for enterprises.
Oriental Securities Report on New Energy Automobile Industry Chain Industry in AugustIn the judgment, after the strategic adjustment of the car enterprises in July-August, the consumption of new energy vehicles returned to normal levels. But since May, the car company has mainly focused on digesting backward models. At present, the stock of the dammed lake is exhausted, and the industrial chain has entered the stage of replenishing stocks. From July to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will fluctuate greatly, and spot trading will become active.
Overall, policies such as consumer demand and double points, and curbing the property market and the car market will continue to stimulate new energy sales in the second half of the year.
(I am the future car daily reporter Cheng Wei, pay attention to intelligent network connection, automatic driving and sharing travel dynamics, welcome to exchange at any time. Please add WeChat tuanzi_C, add please note name, company, position.)
