In 2020, there is no doubt that there will be two heavens for drama production and production companies.
Editor’s note: This article is from the micro-channel public number “read entertainment” (ID: yiqiduyu) , Author: Zhao Two knives.
2020 will mean a long winter for many industries, but for the drama market, while the cold wind is blowing, there are also opportunities for spring to bloom.
Xiao Zhan finally unveiled his work!
In the past two years, Xiao Zhan has become a focal figure in the entire entertainment idol industry, which has more or less affected the rehearsal of films, variety shows and even advertising endorsements that he participated in shooting…and nearly two years after the inventory started, ” “His Royal Highness Wolf” was officially launched with almost no publicity, and the long-awaited fans also pushed the popularity of the show to the forefront of the rankings.
The sudden release of “His Royal Highness Wolf” at the end of the year is also considered to be the key to Xinli Media’s performance commitment in 2020: According to data, after being acquired, Xinli Media promised to The annual net profit is not less than 500 million yuan, 700 million yuan, and 900 million yuan respectively-in fact, after relying on the tree, the drama projects undertaken by Xinli Media are all S-level, restricting its revenue The main reason for the profit is actually its ability to destock. There are also news in the market. Many top dramas produced by Xinli, such as “Please advise for the rest of your life” and “Douluo Dalu”, may all be launched at the end of the year.
On the one hand, the market requires the drama company to have enough IP and episodes to start filming, on the other hand, to start filming and even the finished dramaJiNeng has too many unpredictable factors whether it can be launched smoothly and on schedule. This has become a curse that the leading drama company, especially the listed film and television company, is always difficult to get rid of.
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In 2020, there is no doubt that there will be a double sky for the drama production and production company.
The fire is because the market demand has broadened. During the severe epidemic in the first half of the year, the housing economyPopularity, TV stations and video websites have increased demand for drama series, and companies have also had a considerable amount of inventory of dramas being digested. Data shows that in the first half of 2020, several major video sites have launched 356 web series, far exceeding the total number of online series in 2019, and there have also been many episodes with overwhelming ratings and influence……
The ice is the number of start-ups, especially in the first half of the year due to the epidemic, the number of filing and start-ups has also dropped to freezing point; the situation has improved in the second half of the year, but the butterfly effect may also be passed on to 2021 and even In 2022.
The drastic changes in the general environment have also intensified the reshuffle of the industry. According to statistics, in the past year, thousands of domestic entertainment companies have gradually closed down. Compared with the grand occasion when thousands of film and television companies were registered in a month, it is not the same-in addition, as the most digested video platform for dramas Increasingly, more energy is being invested in dramas that participate in investment, production, and production. In fact, most of the lists of producers and investors of all dramas on the market will appear in Tencent series, < a class="project-link" data-id="2492" data-name="Iqiyi" data-logo="https://img.36krcdn.com/20201021/v2_ede06e8385c044e594476adcfd942d0c_img_000" data-refer-type=" 2" href="https://36kr.com/projectDetails/2492" target="_blank">Iqiyi, Ali, Mango…
Taking the main producer of “His Royal Highness Wolf” as an example, Xinli Media invested in the arms of Tencent after several failed IPOs; Yoke Media did not become the darling of capital after landing on the NEEQ, and it also chose to invest in Tencent’s major entertainment sequence.
The choice between the two is not only determined by the pursuit of IP and capital, but also by the industry characteristics of film and television companies with a long destocking cycle.
Heavy assets, long destocking cycles, and strong platform voices. In the face of such market transformation in the past few years, film and television companies have found it difficult to stand alone. Even well-known and successfully listed film and television companies have to introduce Stronger capital and platform entry:
Ciwen Media introduced state-owned assets, and currently the largest shareholder is Huazhang Tiandi with a background of state-owned assets;
A lot of questionsTang De Film and Television, committed to Zhejiang Film and Television and became an affiliate of the Department of Radio and Television ;
Once quite impressive Hualu Baina has also changed after the reform He Jianfeng, the beautiful son…
It should be said that these leading companies that once ranked among the best in the industry, whether they choose to introduce state-owned assets or barbarians, or invest in the embrace of Internet capital, are all related to the industry’s asset-heavy model. The high ratio of accounts receivable to inventory, and the financing gap that they want to continue to export content, are difficult for them to solve by themselves. Among them, the most test of business ability is undoubtedly the ability to save money and collect funds after project development.
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Tang De Film and Television is undoubtedly the listed film and television company that has been most affected by inventory dramas in the past few years. As of the day before, Tang De’s stock price is around RMB 8, which is less than one-fifth of the highest value.
“Win the world” repeatedly pushed and repeatedly suffered from Mercury retrograde, which not only caused Tang Germany suffered heavy losses and caught investors and broadcasters by surprise. Although it reached a remake agreement with Tmall and lowered the selling price of the copyright, “Win the World” has not been able to land for a long time, which not only changed the control of Tang De, but also made Tang De’s new drama development and destocking performance. They are also far from satisfactory. It is understood that Tang De’s current inventory of dramas such as “Feng Zicai”, “Man Man Qingluo”, “Long Wind Breaking Waves”, “For Tomorrow”, “Fragrant Mountain Ye Zhenghong”, etc., are not considered blockbuster works.
After the actual controller changed hands, Hualu Baina became more and more silent. According to the financial report data, although there are 5 dramas that participated in the production and distribution of the series, but “Qing Qing Zi Jin”, “The Nine Mystery of the Nine Hidden Fire”, “Urban Demon Hunter”, “Dad Grows Up”, and “Years Are Like Gold” It only brings income262.67 million yuan-as of the previous day, its market value is about 4.7 billion.
In relative terms, Ciwen’s life is much better. Heavyweight projects such as “Restarting Extreme Sea Tinglei”, “Trident”, “Chengfeng Boy” and “Success” were successfully broadcast, which also brought 338 million yuan in revenue in the first three quarters; at the same time, higher boot volume and inventory The volume has also made it a large number of dramas: According to data, Ciwen Media has a total of 19 TV dramas in reserve, including 7 dramas that have been launched, “Slaying the Wolf”, “The End of the World”, “A Piece of Ice in the Jade Pot”, and “Marriage”. Two Kinds of Conjectures, “The City of Streaming Light”, “Storm Dance”, “A River of Water”, and the 12 projects to be launched: “Fish in the Bottom of the Cauldron”, “Summer I Walk”, “North of the Sky”, “Big Airport”, “Bullet Marks”, and “Take Off” “Bone Fragrant”, “Zhixiang as Crisp”, “Summer in the Forking of Time”, “Re-purple”, “Zichuan”, “The Destiny of Life”, “The Country Is So Beautiful”.
However, the capital market does not seem to have a high degree of recognition of Ciwen. As of the date, its market value is only over 3.3 billion.
The days of the once star stock Huanrui are also hard to describe. From the perspective of the number of start-ups and inventory repertoires, Huanrui is still the most active company in the market: According to statistics, Huanrui Century reserves 43 TV drama projects, including 11 repertoires “World Changan” and “Mountain River Moon” that have been started and filmed. “Ming Dynasty”, “Deep Dive”, “Dream of Chang’an”, “Legend of Yaoxiang”, “South Wind Knows My Will”, “Apocalypse of Conferred God”, “Ghost Blowing Lantern”, “Power and Profit”, “Tianmu Crisis”, “Tomb Raiders Genting Tiangong (Part 2)”, and 32 projects to be launched “Ten Years One Product Wen Ruyan” and “Agarwood Such as crumbs, “Spring Banquet”, “Poyun 2: Swallowing the Sea” and so on.
However, many repertoires also mean a large backlog. How to digest and pay back has become the key to Huanrui’s performance. At the end of 2019, Huanrui Century’s accounts receivable reached 1.263 billion yuan, and a provision for bad debts of accounts receivable was 293 million yuan. Among them, the balance of accounts receivable in “Tianxia Changan” was 441 million yuan, and the ending balance of bad debt provision was 182 million yuan. “Fengshen Zhiqi” resulted in 98.28 million bad debts. And because of “Apocalypse of Conferred God” Failed to reach the guaranteed minimum issue price target within the agreed period. The new culture has Sued Huanrui to court, requesting the termination of the relevant clauses of the contract and the return of the allocated issuance of 140 million yuan.
Actually, Huanrui’s situation is quite representative. Uncertainty in the launch of the series has increased (“World Changan”). After the broadcast, the effect is not good or due to various reasons it is difficult to pay back (“Feng Shen Zhi Qi” ), has become a more or less normal situation encountered by drama companies in recent years. As of the day before, Huanrui’s market value is 3 billion.
Ciwen Media, Hualu Baina, Tangde Film and Television, and Huanrui Century have all been leaders in the industry. The successful listing also shows that the market and capital have recognized them, but they are sought after by IP and capital. In the past few years, there has been more or less expansion. At present, the road to diversification outside of the main business is basically gone, and the market environment after focusing on the main business has become more complicated. It is difficult for its stock price and market value to return to its peak.
There is also a backlog of inventory, and there are also listed companies with relatively better performance.
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Huace Television, known as the first stock of TV dramas, should be said to have the strongest ability to destock. According to statistics, Huace currently has nearly 50 projects in operation and preparations, most of which have been successfully sold, and the schedule after the sale is relatively smooth.
According to the financial report, in the first three quarters, it achieved a total of 1.894 billion yuan in revenue and a net profit of 203 million yuan, which is among the best in the industry. The company achieved 780 million yuan in revenue in the third quarter alone. Among them, the two contemporary dramas “In the Name of Family” and “Ordinary Glory” should be said to be annual boutique dramas, and their market performance is quite impressive.
The use of games to cut into the perfect world of film and television has gradually become the backbone of the industry. According to data, there are nearly 30 projects that have been launched and are waiting to be launched. In addition, its destocking capability is also quite good in 2020. “Peerless Twins”, “Hot-blooded Companion”, “Rock Sugar Stewed Sydney”, “Heavy Fire”, “Trident” and “Unknown Dining Table” will all be broadcast this year. Bringing a stable return to Perfect World, but relatively speaking, the proportion of film and television business in its overall proportion is still relatively small, and it is difficult to simply regard Perfect as a film and television company.
Summary
2020 will mean a long winter for many industries, but for the drama market, while the cold wind is blowing, there are also opportunities for spring to bloom. The listed companies mentioned above actually take the lead in financing and are more susceptible to capital attention. The vast majority of small and medium-sized production companies in the industry can only rely on their own funds to stick to the last minute— —In fact, relatively high-quality small and medium-sized companies in the industry have already invested capital, otherwise it will be difficult to stick to it.
However, it is a hooligan to talk about destocking regardless of the number of episodes developed. Therefore, the number of episodes developed (started and waiting to be turned on), the efficiency of destocking, and effective payment should be the three factors to judge whether a listed film and television company is excellent. Gold Line. If you want to reach the golden thread, you will not only have the project inventory, but also realize the sale and return of money on both sides of the traditional TV channel and Internet channels.
So, how to evaluate the film and television of these listed companies that are always considered by various research reports to be bottoming out? In fact, you can look at the repertoire schedules of various David TV and video websites…Of course, netizens outside the industry May be more concerned, after the launch of “His Royal Highness Wolf”, is Xiao Zhan free from the crisis of public opinion?