Changes brought about by factors such as population growth, rising household income, and aging.
This article is The 191th article of the venture capital observation series
Sharers: Zhong Kang Information General Manager of Industrial Capital Center Guo Xiaoyun
Affected by factors such as population growth, household income increase, and aging, domestic medical health needs are growing, and the medical and health market has undergone earth-shaking changes. Business model innovation and industrial integration are also accelerating.
1, Structural changes in the healthcare market
1.1 The overall market size will continue to grow steadily
In recent years, the health care market has been hot. It is estimated that the scale of China’s large health industry market will reach 10 trillion yuan in 2020, which has become a new enthusiasm. Zhongkang Information judges that the medical and health market will maintain a steady growth trend in the next decade.
From the perspective of supply and demand, on the one hand, with the further aging of society, the per capita disposable income has steadily increased, and the demand for health has been fully released. On the other hand, medical technology, biotechnology, and intelligence The development of such technologies has promoted the substantial increase in the supply-side products and services of the health industry, so that more health needs can be met.
Chart 1. Health care costs are growing steadily
1.2 Cost bubble compression, market growth rate decline
With the advancement of the fee control policy, the medical health market bubble will be compressed, and high-speed growth will be difficult to continue, and the growth rate will gradually decline.
At present, there are three main influencing factors: 1) medical insurance control policy, including volume procurement, DRGs, etc., payment reform, gradual advancement of medical separation, and significant cost reduction; 2) public hospital reform policy, new performance The assessment promoted the implementation of medical reform, and used a large number of generic drugs to replace the original research drugs, zero-addition and drug occupation ratio assessment and other measures to reduce the loss of medical insurance; 3)The implementation of the health management strategy, along with the concept of “prevention of disease is better than cure”, will save a lot of medical costs for the future.
Chart 2. Health Care Cost Growth Forecast
1.3 Industry upgrades are imminent, creating new opportunities
Along with the rapid improvement of people’s living standards, a new round of consumption upgrades will be launched. After pursuing a material upgrade, the consumption of the new middle class began to return to rationality, focusing on personal experience and paying for high-end quality and quality service. At the same time, the trillion-scale cake of the big health industry has also attracted a lot of private capital to compete. Under the two-wheel drive of new middle-class consumption upgrades and the influx of private capital, the upgrading and transformation of China’s medical and health industry has become a fixed trend. In the future, it will be driven by price-driven and marketing-driven to quality-driven, cost-driven and therapeutic.
The upgrade of the healthcare industry will bring new opportunities to commercial insurance. In the past three years, the growth rate of medical insurance expenditure has exceeded the income. As the largest payer, the medical insurance fund is under great pressure. In the future, it will be difficult to support the consumption upgrade demand of the middle class. Commercial insurance is a good supplement to medical insurance and usher in new opportunities for development. .
In recent years, China’s health insurance premiums have grown rapidly: in 2010, China’s health insurance premiums were only 67.747 billion yuan, and by 2018 it had grown to 544.813 billion yuan, accounting for 14.33% of the national insurance industry’s total premium income. 24.12% is the fastest-growing insurance, which is 6.15 times the growth rate of industry premium income.
2, pharmaceutical market analysis and investment opportunities
2.1 The pharmaceutical market is growing at a low rate or becoming a new normal
Affected by the price reduction policy of medical reform, the growth rate of China’s pharmaceutical terminal market has declined year by year in the past three years. The growth rate in 2019 is expected to drop to 4%. Among them, urban-grade hospitals and county-level hospitals are affected by the medical reform policy, which is expected to grow. The rate is only 1.8% and 1.3%. The estimated growth rate of over-the-counter drugs is 4.4%. Compared with 2018, only the two major end markets in rural grassroots and urban grassroots industries are on the rise; the estimated growth rate of prescription drugs is 2.7%. Compared with 2018, each terminal has its own The growth rate has declined. However, due to the impact of aging, consumption upgrades, and supply-side reforms, the market size will continue to grow.