Where does the small program battle go?

In June of this year, “Mother of the Internet” Mary Mickel rose to lead the small program of domestic Internet business model and product innovation in the “Internet Trend Report 2019” The height of the technology trend:

“BAT is gradually forming a unique ecosystem of small programs. Tencent’s small program ecology, apart from continuing to maintain its edge in the gaming arena, has opened the door to new retail and e-commerce areas that have been unable to break through;

Alipay focuses on small programs in the business and life services; Baidu smart applets directly open Baidu’s global traffic to developers, realizing a new closed loop of “search-as-a-service”, which may give Microsoft and 360 Some references for such companies.

In her view, the three small programs of BAT have already explored their own gameplay based on the existing business and achieved some results. At a time when incremental depletion and capital winters are chilling, this is undoubtedly attractive for all players looking for new growth points.

But even then, the small program that gradually went to the second half showed the scene of two days of ice and fire.

One side is successfully positioned to achieve the “growth engine” positioning data.

On August 14th, Baidu App announced the latest data, its daily life has broken 200 million, and it has increased by nearly 40 million in the past six months. Compared with Questmobile, this year’s Q2 mobile Internet active users dropped nearly 2 million data for the first time, which is considered to be a counterattack.

Among them, the curve is steep and has a key node: V11.0 fully supports smart applets. In less than 14 months after the launch of the smart applet, Baidu App’s daily life increased from 150 million to over 200 million;

The echelon is now, where is the second half of the small program?

In other words, after adding a smart small program to enrich the “content + service” ecosystem, Baidu App achieved a significant speed increase.

But on the other hand, the applet seems to be proven not to be a panacea.

For example, on the other side of the day, the daily headline of the same magnitude, the path of the small program went quite badly. Last November, after the launch of the small program, after giving 8 entrances in high profile, it was rushed offline after only 2 months. In March of this year, the addition of the “small program desktop” entry on the App homepage and the major revision of the main entrance in May this year did not even attract industry attention, let alone an explosion like “jumping”.

NoIt is difficult to see that the small program market pattern has emerged as an echelon of polarization. Based on the tradition of “Matthew effect”, platform-based applications are likely to appear in the small program battlefield, which means that the competition logic will change accordingly.

So, we need to discuss how small programs can become growth points and how they will go in the future.

Why is the small program a place to fight?

If you pull the time of each small program, you will get a very interesting answer.

From the 2016 WeChat applet beta, to the August 2017 Alipay applet beta, to the July 2018 Baidu smart applet beta. In the past two years, BAT, which symbolizes the trend of the Internet, has been collected. The small program is obviously not a “window”.

The echelon is now, where is the second half of the small program?

After the second half of 2018, the rhythm of the small and small players layout applet suddenly increased.

In October last year, Taobao “light shop” began to measure; in November, QQ light application and headline small program went online; in December, WeChat applet accessed QQ browser. In February of this year, Netease cloud music “music applet” quietly went online; after the fire of the small program was burned to the PC in July 360, WeChat also reported that it was testing the ability of “PC side to support opening small programs”.

We compared the data of QuestMobile’s China Mobile Internet 2019 Semi-annual Report. Q2 China Mobile Internet has a net decrease of 2 million monthly users, which means that it may be 1.138 billion or the ceiling of the domestic mobile Internet market.

The echelon is now, where is the second half of the small program?

It’s not hard to see that the rhythm of the layout applet is accelerating, just in response to the depletion of the demographic dividend.

Is this just a simple coincidence? Obviously not, in our opinion, the small program is the response given by each family when the growth peaks, because the small program has at least three unique advantages:

One, connect information islands;

The era of mobile Internet is essentially the competition of traffic. Vertical between each super appA high wall has been built, and information and links are firmly in the hands. When users get information and services, they need to jump back and forth between different apps.

Whether it is WeChat, Alipay or Baidu, it is not the end of service but a bridge. The applet greatly improves the connection efficiency by implementing “information and service”, and tries to provide users with “one-stop service” in the super app.

Second, open online and offline;

Compared to traditional apps, small program development costs are low and merchants have a small burden. It is especially suitable for low-frequency scenes such as stations, airports, scenic spots, experience stores, etc. Even with targeted membership management, the related third-party CRM services are also very rich.

The third, very low usage threshold;

On the one hand, getting rid of the high threshold of download registration, no longer will be the main force of the sinking market – “silver hair” is rejected; not occupying memory, low performance requirements for mobile phones; on the other hand, socializing, searching Traditional scenes such as offline scanning code, the use of short path is low cost.

Obviously, whether it is to ensure user stickiness in the high-line market, to dig deep into the user value of the stock, or to be a small entry point for the sinking market is a very good choice.

Size players have different strengths and different effects

The above-mentioned old tune of the small program advantage is more about the next topic: since the traffic is still there, the small program has the potential to stimulate growth, why is it the same as the super app? But it is very different.

I think there are two key factors:

First, whether the use of paths and habits is realistic;

It is also the “big flooding” of traffic, but the results may be completely different, which is largely related to user habits and usage paths.

For example, Baidu is rooted in intelligent search, and the search direct service logic is very natural; Alipay is based on the advantage of being close to the transaction, and mainly promotes the life service applet; WeChat traffic comes from social, belonging to Liang Ning’s “little leisure”, games and games. The e-commerce has advantages.

In other words, small programs can be successfully evoked, based on real-life scenarios or the motivation to “find a solution”.

The user must have some kind of “itch point” in use that is not met. For example, in the scenes of parents’ WeChat asking for a movie, Baidu search for new car information, etc., the small program has played a role in shortening the use of the path.

This is the missing link in the headline of pure content consumption. It is not difficult to understand why the headline announced its focus on the whole network search, and behind it is to create a “search-service” closed loop to form a real scene. Layout.

Second, is there enough user demand;

Simply two points: First, whether it has the “first driving force”; second, whether the user demand is rich enough.

The year after the birth of the WeChat applet was questioned and failed. Until December 2017, WeChat said “playing a small game is a serious matter” to let the WeChat applet rush. Baidu has established awareness through the need for services such as government affairs and illegal inquiries.

In other words, you need to “explode” or just need to be the first driver to build awareness and develop habits.

Small programs have significant “shopping features”, and the more merchants there are, the more consumers there are. The “investment policy” in the early stage, that is, the ecological layout, will largely affect the subsequent willingness to settle.

Social tentacles are wide enough, meaning that “hike-type consumption” such as games, e-commerce, OTA and other services may be activated; the search comes with the “solving problem” awareness, just need the service class to be activated.

And the headline applet is not warm, we may be able to put forward a point of view: products that use algorithmic recommendation as the main path will cause the demand to be too single because of too much emphasis on kill time, which is difficult to arouse other needs.

Where does the small program battle go?

Standing at the current node, it can be said that the head players have completed the basic layout to a certain extent, and the ideas presented to the outside world have become very clear, so it is necessary to represent the development of the next stage of the game. Positioning to do a combing.

The echelon is now, where is the second half of the small program?

Australia applet: From Alipay to Ali

This is accompanied by the transformation of the underlying logic. In the early years, Alipay indulged in socializing and tried to seize the advantage of “high frequency + just need” to win the “ticket ticket”. Eventually, the “circle event” became the last straw in late 2016, and Alipay’s social-related functions were basically cut off.

Therefore, Alipay’s thinking changed significantly. Jing Xiandong once said in an internal sharing:

“For Alipay, as long as the user is at the critical moment of solving the problem, it is enough to think of us, even the shorter the stay time, the better, because it means the efficiency of solving the problem is high enough.”

In March of this year, Ali released the “Alibaba Small Program Stars Program” to connect the small program to the Ali Ecology; in April this year, Ali CTO Zhang Jianfeng in the interview defined the Alipay scope as “long tail application”:

“Small programs are an important role for Ali. Regardless of the digital government or the application of various industries, most long-tail applications in the future may rely on large traffic portals such as Alipay and WeChat.”

In other words, Alipay’s from “High-frequency + just needed” is transformed into “just need + low frequency.” Through a large number of low-frequency application overlays, it is actually a high-frequency transformation around the life scene.

Baidu smart applet: “Super service” under “New connection”

Baidu can be said to be the pioneer of small programs. As early as 2013, Baidu entered the small program with “light application”, but because of the immaturity, it was finally abandoned by the strategy. It was not until last May that I returned to the battlefield.

After several months of exploration, Baidu App has a clear “closed loop” effect. With smart applets, the starting and ending points of user needs can be done in Baidu App.

The root cause lies in the strengthening of Baidu App’s entry status and the differentiation from Alipay and WeChat. For example, Air China can do small programs in Baidu or small programs on WeChat. But if you are not a frequent flyer of Air China, you will search for and get a wine travel product, which will naturally get the service on Baidu smart applet.

So, Baidu smart applet will inevitably move toward “super service”. They not only sell goods, but also meet the various needs of users. This is also the deep logic of Baidu’s investment, praise, knowledge, and new connections.

WeChat applet, the world of e-commerce?

Jingdong and Pinduo are also supported by WeChat portal. The obvious difference in leverage effect proves the accepted logic: WeChat traffic has a strong “no purpose”.

The same is true for the small program level. The “search-as-a-service” of Baidu smart applet and Alipay’s long-tail application are different. The “tool attribute” of WeChat applet is not obvious. According to data released by Aladdin, the top three frequencies of interview scenes are group chat, recently used applets, and app sharing message cards, while search behavior is only in fifth place.

For WeChat, the future of small programs is to mine more consumable content.

This can be seen in the WeChat applet enabling industry application of QUESTMOBILE statistics. Compared with the type of more biased tool attributes, WeChat applet empowers entertainment and e-commerce to a greater proportion, and is more inclined to empower Tencent internal players.

The echelon is now, where is the second half of the small program?

For example, we can see that Tencent has deepened its binding with Weimeng and praised it to further enhance the service capabilities of WeChat e-commerce. Looking forward, WeChat updates frequently appear to be related to e-commerce. Such as live broadcast and other functions.

In other words, the nature of “recreational” trafficIt was decided that WeChat must take more central means in small programs to further tap user value.

Combating the BAT in the small program battlefield, we can clearly see the future trend of the small program dispute

One, a super app that meets a wealth of needs;

In summary, it can be seen that there is a commonality in the well-developed small-program platform: the user demand is rich enough, which is reflected in the fact that BAT’s main business can reflect the characteristics of “connection”.

So whether it is Alipay’s “long tail” or Baidu’s “hydropower coal” that becomes a small program in the whole network, it is actually strengthening this feature.

Review of headlines, Netease cloud players, whether it is information reading, listening to music needs are too single and too purposeful, it is difficult to achieve cross-track conversion.

Second, a prosperous third-party service ecosystem;

The logic for building a third-party ecosystem is different for different players. However, it seems that it is very important to provide a rich solution and underlying capabilities for third parties.

The former is to attract third parties to settle in and improve the efficiency of development and distribution. Ali has a program star program, Baidu has a smart small program open source alliance, WeChat is constantly opening such functions as the public number, “good things” and so on.

The latter is a rich application. After Baidu invested in Kai Shu’s storytelling and knowing it, he also invested with Tencent. All of them are for the sake of one point. They constantly strengthen the awareness that the super app can provide “one-stop service”.