The mystery behind the agitation
Editor’s note: This article is from the micro-channel public number “Magic City fiscal outlook” (ID: moducaiguan), Author: Wu Hao.
In the spring season, the current property market in Shenzhen is very strange.
Since Shenzhen introduced its “self-injury” property market regulation policy in February, the property market in Shenzhen has frozen in an instant, and the transaction volume of second-hand housing has fallen precipitously.
Press the gourd and raise the scoop!
Under the strict regulation and control policy of the property market, Shenzhen’s unique small property housing market is mysteriously on fire.
The hot money in the market with nowhere to go seems to have discovered the New World, and the housing prices of small property houses in several areas where the market has been relatively stable have experienced unexplainable increases.
Especially the small property houses that are expected to be rebuilt and demolished are extremely popular. The transaction price tends to be close to the average housing price of commercial housing in the sector.
What is the mystery behind the turmoil of the small property housing market?
1
The cold second-hand housing market in Shenzhen, the restless small property housing market.
The property market in Shenzhen in April seems to be a bit of a duality.
An agent told me that in an ordinary urban village in Shenzhen, there have been many more people who came to see small property houses recently.
According to the trading practice of small property houses, transactions are all based on “sets” transactions. One bedroom and one living room here sell for about 600,000 to 650,000, and two bedrooms and one living room cost about 1 million.
(Small property houses will be sold after “hardcover”)
If the unit price of the building area is calculated at this price, the house price is close to 20,000 yuan.
In the same period last year, it was still in this location, and the price of a small property house was only more than 10,000 yuan.
The restless market is still heating up.
2
Why is Shenzhen’s small property market so restless? There are three main reasons.
The first reason is that Shenzhen’s property market regulation is too harsh this time. The down payment ratio for second-hand housing has been greatly increased, and the leverage ratio has dropped significantly. Those who just need leeks have been discouraged from the second-hand housing market.
Second-hand houses cannot be bought, new houses with limited prices cannot be bought, and both ends are empty.
The demand for the housing market has not changed and is still growing. Under the stimulus of multiple factors, the small property right housing market has become the last choice, and the rapid rise of market enthusiasm has become inevitable.
The second reason is that Shenzhen’s land is too scarce, and there are too many investors. Shenzhen’s property market is strictly regulated, with purchase restrictions and sales restrictions. If you can’t buy commercial houses, you can buy small property houses. This can increase in value, and more importantly, bet Demolition.
It is understood that in April, the prices of some small property houses that will be demolished have risen significantly, and the average price has even exceeded 50,000 yuan.
In the official reference price of second-hand housing transactions, the average price of several communities in Shajing is basically between 40,000 and 52,000 per square meter, which is not much different from the unit price of small property rights.
In Luohu District, the listing price of some small property houses that are expected to be reformed has soared to about 60,000 yuan per square meter.
In the past two years, the demolition and relocation process in Shenzhen has obviously begun to speed up. As the famous urban villages of Gangxia, Caiwuwei, Dachong, Baishizhou, Shangsha, and Xiasha have been taken down one after another.
Every farmer’s building was razed to the ground, and with it came various legends about the aboriginals getting rich through demolition.
For many investors with limited funds, the best way to share the dividends of Shenzhen’s urban development is to buy “small property houses” in urban villages at a lower price and hold them for a long time. Can fight for decades less.
The third reason is the shed reform policy introduced by Shenzhen, which clearly pointed out that Shenzhen’s future shed reform plan has been shortened from the original 30 years to 20 years.
In the past, the progress of demolition and relocation in Shenzhen has been very difficult. As 100% of the residents’ consent must be obtained, the demolition and relocation of many old communities has stalled at the level of early consultation.
Many households are asking for prices and paying back on the ground, making it impossible for the demolition work to proceed. Therefore, the risk of realizing the purchase of “small property houses” is quite high.
In the past two years, the situation has changed.
The change in the old reform policy clearly tells the market: The demolition and reconstruction of urban villages will be greatly accelerated, and the opportunity for “small property houses” to achieve a huge premium through demolition and whitewashing is here.
3
However, behind the turbulent small property housing market, the hidden risks have to be guarded against.
There are three major risks of small property housing in Shenzhen. We must remind everyone here that no one’s money is blown by the wind.
The first risk is the “building violation” risk.
From last year to this year, the regulatory authorities have repeatedly specified the “small property house”Where do so many affordable housing come from? Most of them will come from over 5 million small property houses.
If you are really shy and really want to stay in Shenzhen, you can buy a small property house.
As long as you avoid relevant risks in advance and purchase “small property houses” from formal channels such as the village committee, the safety factor is still relatively high.
Of course, many friends may ask, if I don’t have a Shenzhen office ticket, I can’t buy a house in Shenzhen, and I don’t want to buy a risky small property house.
So, what else can I buy? The answer is: Business Apartment.
In fact, Shenzhen has quietly opened a policy for outsiders, that is, business apartments.
Recently, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-rural Development issued a document: Pipeline gas can be used in commercial apartments!
It is important to mention: New residential buildings and other construction projects that require fuel (commercial apartments, dormitory projects) should be equipped with gas pipelines and facilities.
If it is a business apartment in another city, even if it can be connected to gas, if you ask me, can I buy it?
The only answer: Refuse the purchase.
But the business apartments in Shenzhen are a bit special, it should be said that they are very special.
Since Shenzhen introduced the ultimate measure of property market regulation in February, the policy scissors between commercial apartments and residential buildings in Shenzhen has become smaller and smaller.
For example, the down payment ratio, all banks will refer to the official guide price of second-hand housing to assess lending, a house is easily 60%, 80% down payment, apartment down payment only 4.5-6%, more advantages than housing.
In terms of value-added tax, the housing exemption has changed from 2 years to 5 years, and the standard for ordinary housing is also very strict. If you do not pay attention, you will become a luxury home, and you must pay a luxury home tax.
It can be said that the tax gap between residences and apartments has narrowed.
Policy observation, since gas can be ventilated, some commercial apartments can also refer to residential buildings in the next step and enjoy other favorable policies.
This trend is becoming more and more obvious.
The most important thing is that in some core areas and hotspots in Shenzhen, such as Futian Xiangmihu, Nanshan Shenzhen Bay, Qianhai, etc., Currently, there are only apartments available for new houses, not residential houses.
The most special thing is that the commercial apartments in Shenzhen do not limit the minimum division unit, the sales target, and the transfer target.
If you buy a business apartment in Nanshan District, Futian District, Shenzhen, you can also enjoy the treatment of a degree room.
You can see, this is a business apartment in Shenzhen.
and what we understand in the traditional senseBusiness apartments are completely different, can even be regarded as a kind of “quasi-residential”.
Shenzhen’s property market under the cold winter of policies, at least this year and next two years, don’t even think about rising prices.
Can’t afford to buy second-hand houses, you can’t buy first-hand houses when you sell new houses, and you don’t want to buy small property right houses, special commercial apartments in Shenzhen, with good liquidity, have become high-quality assets at this time.
This is the magical Shenzhen property market.
This is the weird Shenzhen property market.