The growth rate of real estate loans has dropped for 14 consecutive months, and new loans have been invested in infrastructure construction, manufacturing, and service industries.
Editor’s note: This article is from Economic Observer Online, Reporter: Hu Yanming, authorized to reprint
On October 15, the third quarter financial data released by the People’s Bank of China showed that RMB loans increased by 13.63 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2019, an increase of 486.7 billion yuan over the same period last year.
In terms of sub-sectors, loans to the household sector increased by 5.68 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.54 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 4.14 trillion yuan, and non-financial enterprises and government group loans increased by 8.22 trillion yuan. Short-term loans increased by 1.47 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 4.84 trillion yuan, bill financing increased by 1.73 trillion yuan, and non-banking financial institutions’ loans decreased by 284.1 billion yuan.
How much new loans in the first three quarters have flowed into the real estate industry? At the financial data conference held in the third quarter of 2019 held on October 15, the Director of the Bureau of Investigation and Statistics of the Central Bank, Qi Jianhong, detailed the loan structure of the real estate industry.
Zhen Jianhong said that as of the end of the first three quarters, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 43.3 trillion yuan, up 15.6% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 4.4 percentage points from the end of the previous year and fell for 14 consecutive months. Among them, new real estate loans in the first three quarters of this year amounted to 4.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 33.7% of new RMB loans, 6.2 percentage points lower than last year.
From a structural point of view, the balance of personal housing loans in the first three quarters was 29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, and the growth rate of personal housing loans fell by 1 percentage point from the end of last year. Among them, the personal housing loans in the first three quarters increased by 3.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 24.1% of the increase in various loans, which was basically the same as last year.
“This is a reasonable proportion. According to our observations, 25% is more reasonable, more than 30% in the past few years.” Zhou Xuedong, director of the central bank’s office, added.
According to data released by the central bank, at the end of the third quarter, the balance of real estate development loans was 11.2 trillion, up 11.7% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped 11.8 percentage points from the end of the previous year, and it also fell for 14 consecutive months. In the first three quarters, the newly added real estate development loan was 1 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.7% of the new loans in the same period, which was 3.9 percentage points lower than that of the whole year.
In September, RMB loans increased by 169 million yuan, an increase of 480 billion yuan from the previous month, a record high in the same period of the previous year. In the first three quarters, new loans of enterprises and institutions amounted to 8.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.15 trillion yuan.
Specifically in the first three quarters of medium and long-term loan investment, Yan Jianhong said that, first of all, medium and long-term loans in the infrastructure industry grew steadily and rapidly. At the end of September, medium and long-term loans in the infrastructure industry increased by 8.9% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year. It was the highest point since this year. The first three quarters added 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 173.3 billion yuan year-on-year.
Second, medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry have rebounded significantly, especially in the high-tech manufacturing industry. At the end of September, the balance increased by 11.3% year-on-year, 0.8 and 5.2 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year and the same period of the previous year. In the first three quarters, a total of 331.3 billion yuan was added, an increase of 54.9 billion over the same period last year. The balance of medium and long-term loans in high-tech manufacturing increased by 41.2% year-on-year, 8.1 and 21.2 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year and the same period of the previous year, and 29.9 percentage points higher than the average speed of medium and long-term loans in the same period.
Thirdly, the growth rate of medium and long-term loans in the service industry without real estate increased significantly. The balance at the end of September increased by 11.4% year-on-year, 2 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year and the same period of the previous year and 1.2 percentage points. The first three quarters did not include real estate. The cumulative service industry added 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 582.5 billion yuan year-on-year. The cumulative increase accounted for 55.2% of the medium and long-term loan increments of all industries, 15.3 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year.
“In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 13.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1 trillion yuan over last year. Among them, corporate loans increased by 8.2 trillion yuan, or 14 trillion yuan, and 8.2 trillion yuan was a loan to enterprises. Corporate loans increased by 1.15 trillion yuan. In the first three quarters, the total increase was 1.1 trillion yuan, of which 11 million were for corporate loans. This data is a welcome change, and the funds mainly flow to the real economy.” Zhou Xuedong said.
In addition, the policy bank’s net increase in mortgage replenishment loans (PSL) of 24.6 billion yuan in September was the first restart in five months. According to data released by the central bank, in September 2019, the People’s Bank of China increased the net supplementary loan (PSL) of China Development Bank, China Exim Bank and China Agricultural Development Bank by 24.6 billion yuan.
In this regard, Sun Guofeng, director of the central bank’s monetary policy department, explained that since the bond market interest rate has continued to decline this year, the financing costs of issuing financial bonds by development financial institutions and policy financial institutions have been reduced, so the demand for PSL has declined. Has been resolved through debt issuance. After the funds that have been loaned through the PSL expired, new loans can continue to be issued.
Talking about the 24.6 billion launched in September, Sun Guofeng said that this number is normal, and the investment direction of PSL has not changed. The specific support areas are decided by the policy financial institutions themselves.
“Policy financial institutions are actively expanding market-oriented financing channels, improving credit structure, cultivating diversified financing channels, and playing the role of policy-based financial institutions in countercyclical adjustment.”Full name.