The future is not an era in which we can easily enjoy, but an era in which we need to use our intelligence to gain opportunities.

Specially set up a [Reading] section for reading, screening some books worth reading, and providing some summaries. I hope that you have a book on your hand to let the movement of reading continue.

Reading 丨Familiar with the 8 characteristics of the future, can broaden your landscape

Although some people like to miss the past, more people still like to look to the future, because in the latter’s imagination, the future will be better than now, and can bring hope to them. People in the future are usually curious about how the future will differ from the present so that they can be prepared early. To understand the future, we need to put a lot of major events into consideration in a big historical environment.

Therefore, Director of the Media Lab of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Mr. Ito, took the false judgment of some major inventions (including their own inventions) as a starting point for research, pointing out the three characteristics of the future. , that is, asymmetry, complexity and uncertainty.

The so-called asymmetry refers to the fact that due to the emergence of new technologies, the few people who first mastered new technologies can use new technologies to subvert large organizations or organizations that used to dominate in the corresponding fields. Entrepreneurship is often the story of an ant defeating an elephant. It is this truth.

The so-called complexity means that the current knowledge system is very complex, interdisciplinary, not a single dimension; it is comprehensive, not separate. This is the main reason why media laboratories have to do interdisciplinary and integrated research topics. The current buzzwords – cross-border, in fact, to some extent reflect the characteristics of the complexity of the knowledge system.

The so-called uncertainty means that no one can predict the future. Many people want to know in advance what will happen in the future. They may ask experts for advice and may be addicted to fortune telling. However, McKinsey analysts who have mastered a lot of information, or government officials who have mastered the top secret information, can’t do this.

I have said that good investors are re-responsive and light-predicted, so don’t make such a fussy attempt to predict the future. The important thing is that we have to master the methods of doing things under uncertain conditions. What should we do? I will summarize them into the following eight methods.

Do not over-reliance on past authority

In a period of steady development, the experience of the past authority is useful. But in the new technological revolution, new ideas are more important than the ideas of the past. Under this premise, the only thing humans can do is accept new things instead ofStick to the old experience.

Tom Knight is a senior researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He has important inventions in many areas, such as computer science, and can be called authority. However, when he was very old, he ran to study with biology sophomores because he knew that the density of semiconductor integrated circuits is nearing the limit, and it is difficult to improve it in the future. At the cellular level, chemical reaction-based integrated circuit boards Maybe it can represent the future. Therefore, as a computer scientist, Knight chose to study a master’s degree in biology in order to cope with the challenges of emerging new technologies.

Tie is better than thrust

The so-called thrust is something that is sold to you in various ways, such as the information that is given to you by advertising. The so-called pull is what you need to take the initiative, such as you take the initiative to learn a MOOC on the Internet. In the past, many top-down pushes dominated our behavior.

For example, we turn on the TV, what it provides, and what we accept. Over time, we are affected by the top down. However, in the Internet age, decentralized, active demands from the bottom are constantly emerging, and things that have been pushed down have lost their original value. Why is Google’s search advertising effective and valuable, and the various flat display ads are not effective and low value? The theoretical explanation is because the pulling force is better than the thrust.

Compass is better than map

In the era of predicting the future, we can see the road to find the road, but there is a precondition that the road has not changed much from the past to today. If the roads of a city change every day, the map loses its meaning. But in the future, it is difficult to draw an accurate and time-sensitive map. It is not easy to find a way by relying on the old maps of the past. In this case, learning to use the compass to find the direction is much more meaningful than pressing the map.

In this regard, we have experience in middle school. The teacher gave us a formula, and we were able to solve a large number of math problems according to the formula. If a large number of questions on the test paper do not match the formula, then the person who applies the formula is dumbfounded. Those who master the basic mathematical principles and have the ability to derive new formulas will be invincible. The latter ability is the ability of Ito to use the compass.

Hug risk

Mankind has faced various risks since ancient times and is taking various measures to hedge. Many things that human beings do are to make themselves or their own descendants safe in the future. Both the European castle and the Great Wall of China have the function of avoiding risks. But there may not be a safe haven today, because there is no competition there.

Why does Shenzhen become the source of supply for many high-end hardware components in the world? Because the small businesses there are more willing to take risks. In the growth period of the United States, it is also full of risks like the current Shenzhen. At that time, the pioneers of the United States were not afraid of risks like the Shenzhen people.

Back to everyone, many people feel that they are better off entering an older and more valuable industry. When they are older, work will be easier and safer. This kind of thinking may disappoint those people in the future, because the authority of the past will lose its role. What is truly safe is precisely the risk of embracing.

Rebellious spirit

I have said that rebellion and tolerance for rebellion are the first elements of Silicon Valley’s success. Ito uses the term “defense” to illustrate the importance of unconstrained inventions. He cited the story of DuPont’s invention of nylon in the early 20th century.

The owner of the inventor of nylon, Carothers, Stein is a person who is willing to let his subordinates study freely. Carothers is able to study nylon according to his own interests. But later, his new boss, Bolton, asked everyone to research things that would make money. Fortunately, Carothers “defended” the requirements of the new boss and continued to focus on his own interests, and finally invented nylon using the results of past research.

A major invention is often not something that a mediocre person can understand. If it is too obedient to existing arrangements, there can be no major inventions. Creativity needs to get rid of the bondage to make it work, and it seems like a rebellious act.

Generalists are better than professionals

In the media lab, the vast majority of researchers are interdisciplinary generalists, which is why there are frequent discoveries of major inventions, so generalists are better than professionals. However, for this point of view, most people need to avoid a misunderstanding, that is, their understanding of any field is not profound, but they want to become a cross-border master.

The more meaningful thing for most people is to make yourself a professional. After that, if you can develop into a generalist, if you can’t, you must have the ability to mobilize resources and form complementary advantages. Conversely, if a person does not have the advantage of being able to draw a hand, no one is willing to exchange capacity with him.

For an organization, this principle can be understood as the importance of multiculturalism. In an organization, the diversity of talents is more advantageous than simplification.

Resilience is better than strength

The role of power in doing one thing is self-evident, usually the greater the power, the easier it is to advance. However, if we recognize the uncertainty of the future and the inevitability of local failure, we need a system that can resist catastrophic failure, so as to avoid local errors ruining the overall situation. The role of resilience manifests itself in the face of “storms”. A healthy and dynamic institution needs to be resilient, able to withstand multiple local failures, reborn through change, and ultimately be invincible.

emphasizes integrity

Before the advent of system theory, people usually think that the whole is equal to the sum of parts. But when people start to study complex systems such as the human body or society, they will find that the whole is not necessarily equal to the sum of parts. Optimizing each individual may not achieve the overall optimal state. real