I don’t know how tough.

Before I was 40 years old, I had never seen any “mountain”. I didn’t expect life to be the hardest to climb. It was life.

——”Generation Master”

In 2019, Liu Xiao went to climb a four-girl mountain peak, 5039 meters of snow-capped mountains, and did not let Liu Xiao feel “conquer”, the whole process is actually filled with the cycle of despair and cheering for themselves. After coming down from the snowy mountains, he changed his perception of “difficulty and easyness.”

He also went to the African refugee camp to get along with the local volunteer refugee entrepreneurs for a week. At the end of the trip, a local young man from the refugee camp suddenly burst into tears. Everyone is silent, everyone is going to different worlds and return to the original track. In the past seven days, I became friends and eat the same meal. After that, my life was different. “What changes have I brought to them?” Liu Xiao felt that the world suddenly became different, strange and strange. fresh.

This is Liu Xiao’s two deepest feelings in 2019. He said: “When I was 35, I used to imagine what my 40-year-old would look like and how it would be.” When the real 40-year-old came However, I found that I am more willing to review reflections, and therefore feel more relaxed and younger. I can say that there is no regrets.”

01

City Clock

In the eyes of the outside world, Vanke’s style is stable, and there are rules and regulations. But for the helm of the company and the region, every decision is made to point out a route to climb the snowy mountains, determine the direction of the next few years and the feelings of hundreds of people.

People want to be better in the future. Most people can only see the moment, live in the moment, and don’t want to go to the top of the mountain to have a look.

Liu Xiao said that enterprises are “businesses of the times”. Just like there was no Shenzhen Special Economic Zone 35 years ago, there would be no such thing as Vanke today. Every city also has its own “clock”, and real estate development must go to see how many points it has reached. As a manager, you must also design a climbing route for the future.

According to Vanke, changes in demographic structure, urban differentiation, and new economic trends are the three major backgrounds for the future of the real estate industry. “The post-90s population is 31 million less than the post-80s population, and after 00, it is 41 million less than the post-90. This will largely offset the new demand brought about by the continued increase in urbanization rate.” Vanke wrote in the 2018 annual report. Dao, China’s “small child” and “aging” trend is undoubted, “and the change in the total population, the impact is not only the demand for real estate. In 2018, the total retail sales of consumer goods hit a new low, multiply Cars and some home appliances have seen a sharp decline in sales, all of which support the impact of demographic trends on the economy to a certain extent. Under such a background, the structured distribution of population may be more important than the total data.

Need to be in the silver ageTo be more delicate, higher in technology, the competition is more intense, the environment is more varied, and the difficulty is even more difficult.

Some analysts have judged that “limit prices” will be implemented in a large number of first- and second-tier cities. The policy of eliminating monetary subsidies in third- and fourth-tier cities continues. The market for traditional residential development is “snacked” and profits are also sold from land prices. Both ends of the price are “locked to death”. When the land dividends of the previous years have been digested, the net profit of a large number of enterprises will appear “waist” and fall within 8%. Every step determines whether you can live.

But most people are looking at the future from past experience, not standing in the future. Within the real estate company, the bottom-level employees are more willing to use the repetitive labor to keep the salary in the past; at the project level, they only want to sell the house and get new projects. If the market is not good, they will use a lot of channels to support the sales of products. Brand value is difficult to parry the reality of quick success. For them, the traditional business and the new business are horizontally contrasted, not the relationship between the present and the future.

Liu Xiao once recommended a book in his circle of friends: “Variables.” He summed up a number of inspiring views: “Look at the big trend in the early stage of development, look at the small trend after development”; “More attention should be paid to the turning point of urbanization than the turning point of housing prices”; “In the future, the niche is the mainstream.” …..

Liu Xiao said: If there is no pressure facing the moment, I will not think about where the future is. Where is the new growth point?

In the past year, he still had “9 regrets.” Behind the “9 regrets”, some were deformations under too much pressure, some were judgment errors, or they were wrong when they were thinking. Liu Xiao believes that the world seems calm, snow mountains have been there, and the lives of African refugees will not immediately change dramatically, but we are on the threshold of change.

Three major trends will affect the work, life, and industry of most people. First, science and technology have penetrated into every industry. Mobile internet has affected people’s communication and industry resources gathering. Artificial intelligence will bring new products, new social division of labor and production methods.

Second, resources and cities are accelerating, and in the process of economic transformation and industrial upgrading, the way of resource organization changes. The industry is more focused on the urban circle, urban belt, and population focus. The demographic dividend has declined and the demographic structure has accelerated in different cities.

Thirdly, with the change of demographic structure, new things appear, people’s pursuit of quality of life is also changing. They will redistribute from the pursuit of social resources, and gradually pay more attention to new creations such as new scenes and new supply.

Under the big background and the general trend, Liu Xiaocai proposed the “five new engines” in the northern region of Vanke – TOD, Science and Technology Park, Wenchuang Park, industrial town, and old reform. Each direction corresponds to a new stage of economy, city and people.

People who don’t understand the big times can only drift with the tide of the trend. Still others are destined to be eliminated.

October 27, LiuThe land at the foot of Xiao is an old factory in Shenyang, a famous red plum MSG factory in the northeast of the industrial period. This old factory, which was born from the Japanese occupation era, was eliminated by the market in 2014 and quietly closed.

Liu Xiao believes that each city has a different stage of development. In the industrial period, cities need factories, and urbanization needs more houses during the acceleration period. The city pendulum points to today, the new economic wave and new consumerism are under the influence. People have changed, cities have changed, culture is no longer a supporting resource, and cultural industries can also serve as a fulcrum to incite more resources to gather, change the way of life in the city, and then generate more business opportunities.

“I proposed the idea of ​​Wenchuang Garden more than two years ago. It is based on this initial intention that we must grasp the basic changes of Chinese cities entering the era of cultural creation. So I believe that through the product line of Wenchuangyuan, We can better grasp the development of the city.”

Liu Xiao said that if there is no such regret, today will be too good to imagine.

Can be “If you have no regrets in life, then it would be boring…”.

As of the end of September, Vanke had made a provision for inventory depreciation of 1.14 billion yuan, with a balance of 3.06 billion yuan, 750 million more than the amount of last year.

As of October 27, 408 housing companies have declared bankruptcy this year.

If you don’t look at what’s going on every day, catching the clues, many people will only be forced to change when the results come.

02

Needs and needs

It is the platform of Vanke•Hongmei Wenchuang Park in Shenyang. It was the first time that Liu Xiao went to the city outside Beijing to participate in the project launch conference after taking the first place. Prior to this, he only appeared twice in public in Beijing this year.

One time in April this year, he appeared in the “Seashell New Residence Conference”. He said that he appreciates Zuo Hui. The latter is a recognized strategist in the industry. In 2018, Zuo Hui broke the chain model and overthrew the past. Liu Xiao believes that Zuo Hui’s judgment is extremely accurate and the strategy is very clear.

One time in August this year, Liu Xiao appeared at the press conference of Beijing Suiyuan Pension Center. He said, “China has entered the age of old age. Today, the elderly over the age of 60 account for 250 million people. In addition, modern pension services have many pain points, the needs of the entire industry have not been met, and the entire service standards for the elderly are far from enough. So we saw a huge market prospect and saw the opportunity outside.”

Liu Xiao did not appear even if he invested in the 10 million-scale Vanke Qinglong Lake project and the high-profile Taihu Dongwang project. Like Zuo Hui, he appeared in “difficult and correct things.”

If you withdraw from the sales of a project and a region, then go to the real estate industry, business layout, project or not, Liu XiaoThinking about three questions: What is the value to the city? What industrial value does it bring? What kind of social value do we want to create?

He told himself not to be stunned, only reasonable to last. A reasonable premise is to answer these questions.

“How do you keep up with the times? That is to develop in parallel with the city and develop with customers.” Liu Xiao believes that in the past people needed houses, and now the Northeast needs investment and industrial vitality. The logic is unchanged. It is only valuable to do what is needed.

From Vanke’s residential, commercial, logistics, and ski industries, to Beijing Vanke’s TOD, Science and Technology Park, Wenchuang Park, industrial town, and old reforms, to understand Vanke’s new urban and rural construction and life service providers You can see a three-dimensional, integrated city, not a tiled plane.

The back of Wenchuang Park is the economy, the combination of urban resources and emerging industries. The new generation of information technology, new energy and industrial technology cross-integration, which may drive the development of the Northeast.” Liu Xiao with Hongmei For example, Wenchuangyuan said that the successful landing of the Wenchuangyuan project is the result of the combined development of urban resources and information industry. Shenyang has a rich cultural IP, the Forbidden City, Lumei, Shenyin, etc., has a rich history, there are new industries in the field, new IP is willing to come in, Vanke is doing to provide space and scenes, design an ecology that can exert the multiplier effect .

Follow the city’s pendulum and do what the city needs, not what you want to learn from the city. This conversion of thinking is difficult, but there are many things that don’t do without confusion.

文 | Fang Tao, Hu Tu