This article is from the WeChat public account: China Securities Journal (ID: xhszzb) , author: Liu Yang Zhou days, the original title: “The state oil and gas pipeline company, or leveraging the 300 billion yuan market demand, which will bring good? 》, Cover from: Oriental IC

On December 9, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Pipeline Network Group Co., Ltd. was officially established in Beijing, marking a key step in the market-oriented reform of the operating mechanism of the oil and gas pipeline network.

Affected by this news, the “three barrels of oil” in Hong Kong stocks rose, and PetroChina’s shares rose to 2.51%, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation rose 1.84%, and China National Offshore Oil rose 1.24%.

As of the close of the morning, the “three barrels of oil” share price of the A-share market rose slightly, Sinopec rose 0.61%, and PetroChina rose 0.18%.

Why is the National Pipe Network Company established? How will it affect oil and gas prices after the establishment? What impact will it have on the upstream and downstream? Will the gas storage, LNG receiving station, and “three barrels of oil” assets be merged? Will the pipeline company seek a listing?

Management assets are changing to management capital or seeking listing

The goal of the national pipeline network company is to strive to build a world-class oil and gas pipeline network company. The state-owned pipeline company has a huge amount of assets, and the outside world is also worried. Will the scattered business be concentrated in one company before, will it form a monopoly?

Liu Manping, an expert from the China Petroleum Industry Think Tank Alliance, said that the State Pipeline Company is mainly engaged in oil and gas transportation and transportation, and does not participate in competitive transactions in upstream resources and downstream markets. Its income has nothing to do with buying and selling oil and gas, and earning spreads. At the same time, the reform opinions clearly strengthen the supervision of various aspects of information disclosure, planning implementation, fairness and openness, pipeline price, safe operation, assets and services of the national pipeline network company.

Liu Yijun, a professor at China University of Petroleum, also said that the establishment of the countryPipe network companies are conducive to better control of the intermediate pipe network transmission links, to achieve “a nationwide network” and fair opening, and create good conditions for more market participants to participate in competitive business. The separation of pipe network transportation and sales is not only in line with the requirements of reform, but also a common international practice.

For the outside world ’s questions about “whether other companies can build oil and gas pipeline networks after the establishment of the national pipeline network company”, Liu Yijun believes that according to the main duties of the national pipeline network company, it is not responsible for building all oil and gas pipelines. Moreover, China’s oil and gas pipeline network construction needs to be accelerated at present, and there is a lot of room for development, and more capital needs to be invested in the construction of the pipeline network.

Liu Manping suggested: “After the establishment of the pipe network company, the monopoly business that previously belonged to multiple companies was concentrated in one company, and the monopoly is more prominent. At this time, the government needs to position the pipe network company as a public welfare enterprise , You can only earn income by providing transportation services, not earning the difference by buying and selling gas, and strengthen economic, social, and security supervision.

In the “2019 China Energy and Chemical Industry Development Report” issued by Sinopec, it is mentioned that the newly established state-owned pipe network company will follow the current reform ideas of state-owned enterprises in China and change from managing assets to managing capital. After the new pipeline network company transferred the pipeline assets divested by the three major oil companies, it will seek capitalization and securitization, widely introduce social capital through listing, and increase investment in pipeline network construction.

The establishment of a new pipe network company will be carried out in three stages:

First, PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC divested their pipeline assets and employees, transferred them to the new company, and determined the equity ratio of the new company based on the valuation of their respective pipeline assets.

Second, after the new pipe network company has been injected with assets, it plans to introduce about 50% of social capital, including state investment funds and private capital. The new funds will be used to expand the pipe network.

Third, the new management company will seek listing.

The “three barrels of oil” monopoly situation is gradually broken, and oil and gas prices will be more reasonable

China’s natural gas pipeline network is mainly in the hands of three barrels of oil. The integrated operation model of supply and marketing and the geographical monopoly nature of natural gas make other gas suppliers and downstream gas companies’ bargaining power weak.

The current natural gas industry chain is mainly divided into three links: upstream production, midstream pipeline transportation, and downstreamTour terminal. After the establishment of the independent national pipeline network company, the natural gas transmission and sales were completely unbundled. Any upstream and downstream enterprises can apply to the pipeline network company to help transport natural gas. This means that previously companies that did not dare to enter the upstream of exploration, development, and import industries have the conditions to enter the upstream. The competition in the upstream will be fierce, and the situation of “three barrels of oil” monopoly will gradually break, which objectively improves other The ability of market players to compete fairly.

Fu Shaohua, director and deputy general manager of Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center, said in an interview with the China Securities Journal reporter that on the one hand this can “force” the existing major oil and gas companies to focus more on exploration and production and increase production. At the same time, other entities are also expected to take advantage of the opportunity of the opening of the pipeline network to enter the field of exploration and production, thereby enhancing China’s overall natural gas production and supply capacity.

For downstream enterprises, Fu Shaohua believes that before the independent pipe network company was established, there was little room for upstream selection. However, after the separation of transportation and sales, natural gas downstream enterprises can choose at least three barrels of oil, even if some After the LNG station is opened independently, downstream companies can also purchase natural gas from overseas resource parties, and the choice of resources has increased significantly.

In addition to intensified competition, the production and operation model of the industry’s integration of production, transportation and sales will also change in the future.

Fu Shaohua suggested that in the future, we must first step up the exploration and development of resources, accelerate the pace of increasing oil and gas reserves and production, and stay in the competition for resource supply capabilities.

Second, thoroughly reform the original integrated management ideas as soon as possible, and increase market share through cooperation with downstream to obtain additional profits. The experience of mature market countries shows that by seeking to cooperate with downstream, the way of expanding upstream’s own resources market share can be better and faster development.

Third, give full play to the advantages of its own resources and overseas procurement channels, and work hard on the acquisition of resources to gradually change from resource producers to resource producers and traders, improve comprehensive service capabilities, and increase the proportion of trade profits.

Relevant sources of the National Pipe Network Company said that after the establishment of the National Pipe Network Company, it can promote the formation of an oil and gas market system with multi-subject and multi-channel supply of upstream oil and gas resources, efficient centralized collection and transmission of the intermediate pipeline network, and full competition in the downstream sales market, which will help In order to form a market-based oil and gas price mechanism, so that oil and gas prices are more reasonable.

Or it will leverage 300 billion yuan of market demand and focus on gas-themed investment

The establishment of the national pipeline network company will promote the formation of a new system of oil and gas markets with “X + 1 + X”. The industry generally believes that the national pipe network company is listedWith the background of traditional winter guarantees, the gas-themed investment opportunities in the fourth quarter of this year deserve special attention.

Analysis of Everbright Securities pointed out that the components of the national pipeline network company will be beneficial to the natural gas industry, and there will be three major related areas in the industrial chain to benefit. The first is a pipeline and exploration and mining equipment engineering company; the second is an unconventional natural gas company; the third is a high-quality city fuel company.

According to the policy planning mileage calculation market space, from 2019 to 2020, China ’s natural gas pipeline market space is 1207-1660 billion yuan, natural gas pipeline compressor market space is 604-1905 billion yuan, natural gas pipeline mechanical seal market space is 8.96 100 million yuan.

Calculated market space based on specific projects of natural gas pipeline networks under construction. From 2019 to 2020, the market space for natural gas pipelines is 1683-231.4 billion yuan, the market space for natural gas pipeline compressors is 842-1262 billion yuan, and the natural gas pipeline mechanical seal market The space is 806 million yuan.

China’s natural gas supply and demand has increased year by year


Data source: National Energy Administration


2015-2020 mileage of China’s natural gas pipeline construction

Data source: 13th Five-Year Plan

Zhongtai Securities has given an “overweight” rating to the natural gas equipment industry. The agency analyzed that the construction of the natural gas pipeline network is expected to drive the market demand for related equipment to exceed 300 billion yuan. The establishment of the national pipeline network company will help straighten out the natural gas industry chain and accelerate the construction of infrastructure such as pipelines, which will definitely drive the demand for related equipment.

Shenwan Hongyuan report believes that after the establishment of the National Oil and Gas Pipeline Network Company, unconventional gas mining companies and city gas companies with gas source advantages are expected to take the lead.

The latest report of Huatai Securities states that the establishment of the national pipeline network company will benefit urban gas companies in the medium and long term. On the one hand, large-scale city fuels currently do not have a scale advantage in upstream procurement. The release of gas sources and independent pipeline networks are conducive to the use of gas sales scale advantages to control the cost of gas sources; on the other hand, under the circumstances of gas volume liberalization and cost control In addition, the city can develop gas sales and comprehensive energy businesses other than gas distribution, diversifying sources of profit.

This article is from the WeChat public account: China Securities Journal (ID: xhszzb) , author: Liu Yang Zhou days