n>. Although we have been warning that Chinese society is facing a severe demographic crisis, almost all previous predictions are still too optimistic.
Although China now accounts for 18% of the world’s population, the annual birth population accounts for only 10% of the world’s population. In the next ten years, women in China’s peak childbearing age will shrink by more than 30%, while the natural fertility rate is less than half of the world. The combination of these two factors will reduce the Chinese birth population to 5% of the world population within one or two generations. Under the strong low fertility inertia, it may take another two or three generations for China to raise the fertility rate to the world average. When it finally stabilizes, China’s annual proportion of newborns in the world, and even the proportion of China’s population in the world may fall below 3%.
At present, this demographic trend will continue, and China’s economic and social development will be squandered. In the past few decades, we are accustomed to the rapid changes and the trend will be reversed. China’s renaissance may only be a short-lived one and become a yellow flower tomorrow. Moreover, raising the fertility rate to a replacement level is something that must be done to avoid the demise of the nation.
It can be said that ultra-low fertility is China’s biggest crisis in the coming decades and even hundreds of years. Moreover, no matter the experience in various parts of East Asia or various analyses, low fertility rate itself is a vicious circle, the later it will be more difficult to solve. In our opinion, the real value of national think tanks is to provide prospective research for the society. The basic macroscopic trend of population needs to be judged at least, and should not be confused by the relatively short-term trend of the epidemic, let alone It should stay in the cognition repeatedly rejected by facts decades ago.