This article comes fromWeChat public account: Guotai Junan Securities Research (ID: gtjaresearch), author: Guotai Junan car team title figure from: vision China
On the evening of July 30, amidst the sorrow of Nasdaq, the “ideal” car was publicly released for $11.5.
So far, apart from Weilai, American investors have begun to see the “ideal” of China’s auto industry.
In fact, since Tesla subverted the car passenger experience, Chinese new carmakers have been placed high hopes. In the previous fundraising, the “ideal” of China’s new car-making power has been favored by international investors, and it has received full subscription and ended early.
What consumers see is a more and more concise center console; what investors see is a higher and higher monthly output… and behind this, what you can’t see is another segment of cars The research and development of electronic architecture is dying.
1. Unbearable weight
In 1994, Audi officially released its first large luxury sedan at the Geneva Motor Show-the first-generation Audi A8. At that time, Audi, which had not yet been regarded as a “light factory”, built a luxury car with square lights, square intake grilles, and a more square all-aluminum body.
In the following eight years, Audi sold a total of 100,000 A8 cars. This is just the “Fangtou Big Ben” well-known to the Chinese people. (Benz S-class W220) one year’s sales.
When consumers were attracted by the all-aluminum body and the V8 engine and moved to the central control, they recalled their fear of being dominated by Santana.
Audi knows that the first-generation A8 did not really impress the wealthy class who demanded increasing travel quality. In 2002, the second-generation Audi A8 came.
The second-generation Audi A8 interior
Source: Pacific Auto.com, Guotai Junan Securities Research
Satellite navigation, zone automatic air-conditioning and a complete set of active safety systems have helped A8 successfully rank among the world’s flagship luxury models. It is also called BBA with Mercedes-Benz and BMW, becoming the representative of German luxury passenger cars.
But the electrical engineering team of Audi is a duck paddling at the moment.
The entertainment system of the second-generation Audi A8 is the multimedia interactive system MMI that has been used for more than ten years: the audio, audio and video playback, navigation and other entertainment systems on this flagship car can all be controlled through the knob and Handwriting board to operate. Even now, car companies have begun to move larger and larger screens into the car, MMI is still the most convenient entertainment interactive experience in the hearts of many car owners.
Obviously, this is not achievable with 5 ECUs in the first-generation A8 car. With the continuous innovation and upgrade of automotive functions, the number of ECUs has increased dramatically. More and more electronic devices and wiring harnesses have brought great difficulties to automobile assembly.
In fact, there are more than hundreds of ECUs in an A8 car at this time. Centralized electrical and electronic architecture has become one of the few solutions.
The concept of DCU domain controller(Domain Control Unit) came into being.
DCU connects to ECU and divides functions according to domains
Source: In-depth analysis report on the realization of autonomous driving in 2018, Guotai Junan Securities Research
In the DCU mode, car functions are divided into different areas, such as: powertrain, vehicle safety, body electronic smart cockpit and smart driving, etc., and then use more powerful processing chips to control the corresponding ECUs in the domain. The entire architecture replaces the original distributed architecture and is more centralized.
Some car companies divide ECU domains
Source: Bosch, Guotai Junan Securities Research
People’s needs are much more than that. In addition to making driving fun, people certainly want the steering wheel in their hands to understand themselves better-this is why autonomous driving has become a standard feature in science fiction movies since the 1990s.
In real life, autonomous driving technology means that the vehicle automatically completes driving tasks according to human instructions. This technology requires cameras, various radar equipment, and navigation systemsLink with various sensors to perceive the surrounding environment. On this basis, in order to make the vehicle move on a predetermined trajectory, a combination of precise positioning, car networking communication, and complex calculations of sensors is also required, and DCU is no longer sufficient to support all of this.
MDC Multi Domain Controller(Multi Domain Controller) was created to process large amounts of data and perform complex logic operations. The logic of MDC is to access data from different sensors through an ECU, analyze it, and finally issue control commands. The difference from DCU is that DCU is a single-module domain controller, and its docking sensors are divided according to functions, while an ECU in the MDC will contact sensors with different functions.
MDC connects sensors with different functions in the traditional sense
Source: In-depth analysis report on the realization of autonomous driving in 2018, Guotai Junan Securities Research
At present, most car companies in the market have commonly used MDC. In 2018, the fourth-generation Audi A8 became the first car equipped with L3 automatic driving system. It can control the steering, acceleration and braking of the vehicle on its own in a traffic jam scene (vehicle speed below 60km/h). L3 automatic driving refers to safe driving away from the control of hands and feet. The driver only needs to take over when the system cannot control it. It is the highest level of autonomous driving that can be achieved by current car companies.
2. From decentralization to integration
McKinsey’s report released in 2018 divided the electrical architecture of electronic vehicles into five stages. Most of the automakers are in the third-generation architecture based on DCU to the fourth-generation architecture based on MDC.
At present, most manufacturers are in the transitional stage of the third generation to the fourth generation in the McKinsey E/E architecture
Data source: McKinsey “Automotive Software and Electronics 2030”, Guotai Junan Securities Research
The first three stages of change correspond to the three stages led by ECU, DCU and MDC. At present, most car companies are in the third-generation E/E distributed system and are moving towards the fourth-generation centralized system.
Although through the iteration of Audi A8 we can see the future development direction of car companies and their efforts, but the outstanding Tesla is already in the fourth generation of E/E architecture reform, and is moving towards the fifth generation. : Continuous exploration of large-scale intelligent terminals.
Model 3 realizes the transition to multi-domain controller stage
Data source: Tesla Chinese website (cold winter melon), Guotai Junan Securities Research
As early as 2014, Tesla configured Autopilot automatic driving function (L2.5 automatic driving) for all Model S and subsequent vehicles from the factory. The launch of Model S and subsequent models gave people freedom to imagine the future of intelligent cars.
There is no traditional instrument panel, no complicated buttons, and a 17-inch luxurious large screen, which is longer than a common single pillow. You can view driving information and use various functions with a single tap. US “Consumer Report” stated that “driving this car is as convenient as using an iPad.”
This also puts forward a new test for the electrical architecture in the car: From the obvious domain division concept of Model S to the real realization of multi-domain control in Model 3, Tesla’s electronic and electrical architecture has achieved an unprecedented high level of integration. In addition, Model 3 also adopted many innovative technologies:
Model 3 four major controllers: AICM(Assisted Driving and Entertainment Control Module), BCM RH(right body controller), BCM LH(Left Body Controller) and BCM FH(Front Body Controller)Control almost all functions of the whole car.
The component placement density on the printed circuit board of the left, right and front body controllers is very high. A printed circuit board is designed with multiple controllers; and the sub-controls except the core controller are functionally The function of the controller is more standardized, and the hardware and software are separated. The proportion of Tesla self-developed controllers exceeds 50%; the shape of the Model 3 body controller is not a traditional regular square, but according to the height required by the controller. And area to determine the shape.
Irregular shape of Model 3 body controller
Data source: Tesla Chinese website (Automobile), Guotai Junan Securities Research
De-fuse and de-relay
In addition to the battery internal controller, the relays and fusible fuses have all been replaced with electronic fuse boxes integrated in the body control. The use of electronic fuse boxes can more reliably control the power supply of each controller, detect the power consumption of ECUs, and perform power supply or power-off processing for specific ECUs when necessary.
Using X86 architecture and self-built Linux operating system
Assisted driving and entertainment control module(AICM) is equipped with Intel’s Atom A3950 The processor, which integrates the QorIQ chip of NXP, has a great advantage in performance.
The X86 architecture used by Atom A3950 can better handle complex and huge instructions. Its software matching, development tools matching and compatibility work have been very mature.
The QorIQ chip is responsible for the communication interconnection and configuration management of the in-vehicle subsystems, enabling seamless and secure data flow between edge devices and the cloud.
The Atom A3950 platform runs on-board Linux system built by Tesla itself, and more than 80% of the software used is developed by Tesla itself, which guarantees Tesla’s absolute control status in software.
The total length of the vehicle wiring harness is reduced to 1.5 kilometers
The total length of the internal wiring harness of a car can exceed several kilometers. The length of the wiring harness is actually an indicator to measure the level of electronics in this car. The higher the degree of vehicle electronics, generally means that there are more electronic components and more wiring harnesses in the vehicle, and the corresponding vehicle weight will increase.
Tesla succeeded in achieving as many component connections as possible using fewer wiring harnesses within the limited space and weight of the vehicle. Compared with the previous model, the total length of the on-board wiring harness of Model 3 has been reduced from 3 kilometers to 1.5 kilometers, which greatly reduces the weight of the vehicle.
The ridicule, disdain, and wait-and-see attitude of traditional car companies towards Tesla at the beginning turned into a rush in front of Model 3.
The passenger car industry is facing consumers’ infinite demands for driving experience, control pleasure, and road safety. Only by accelerating the speed of research and development, seizing market share with high entry barriers and gaining first-mover advantage can they Maintain the existing competitive landscape.
3. Cloud
It is estimated that the compound growth rate of the software and electronic and electrical architecture market will be 7% from 2020 to 2030, and the compound growth rate of the power system market size will be 15% from 2020 to 2030.
Automotive Software and E/E Architecture Market
Data source: McKinsey “Automotive Software and Electronics 2030”, Guotai Junan Securities Research
The evolution of E/E architecture is closely related to the development of automotive Ethernet. Ethernet provides guarantee for the high speed and high bandwidth of car signal transmission.
Ethernet sounds similar to the Internet, but it is actually a computer local area network technology. Usually devices are connected by cables to form a closed internal network. The Internet is the general term for computer networks, a worldwide wide area network.
Ethernet is a switch type (Switched Network) communication method. There are terminal nodes and switch nodes in the network, and all terminal nodes need to pass through the switch The forwarding of the node can be used for communication. The terminal node has one and only one Ethernet port, while a switch node has multiple Ethernet ports. Ethernet can provide higher bandwidth and switching network, with very powerful communication capabilities. Ethernet communicates in one-to-one or one-to-many modes. In the one-to-one mode, the sending node’s message covers the address of itself and a receiving node; in the one-to-many mode, the sending node’s message covers the address The address of itself and multiple receiving nodes. Neither affects the communication of other nodes.
Ethernet for exchangeInformation sending and receiving through machine-type communication
Data source: In-vehicle network miscellaneous talk, Guotai Junan Securities Research
It is foreseeable that as more complex in-vehicle functions come online, on the one hand, the demand for the number of Ethernet ports will increase; on the other hand, in order to achieve the in-car experience of VR, watching movies and other equipment requirements Higher audiovisual entertainment activities will also have an urgent need for large bandwidth.
The number of Ethernet ports is increasing rapidly with the increase of vehicle functions
Data source: WeChat public account Somersault Cloud and Autonomous Driving, Guotai Junan Securities Research
Software development and hot update is another important factor in the E/E architecture transformation.
Service Oriented Software Architecture SOA(Service Oriented Architecture) will become the technical foundation of the “software-defined car” in the automotive field in the future. Software-defined cars represent the trend that software drives automotive technological innovation and promotes the differentiation of automotive products, and is the foundation of automotive intelligence and informationization.
Under the SOA architecture, the components and functions of the application are not bound forcibly, and the different components and functions of the application are not closely related to the structure. The advantage is that when the internal structure and implementation of application services are gradually changed, the software architecture will not be excessively affected.
SOA realizes the separation of software and hardware to a certain extent
Data source: United Electronics, Guotai Junan Securities Research
Hot update technology guarantees immediate update and application after software development. Hot update is the instant update of the vehicle software system. Manufacturers upgrade and update the vehicle software remotely, which is as convenient and fast as a mobile phone upgrade system.
4. Component market opportunities behind the E/E revolution
On a traditional fuel vehicle that will be manufactured in 2019, the cost of automotive electronics is approximately US$3,145. By 2025, this number is expected to rise to 7,030 dollars. The proportion of automotive electronics in the cost of all materials and parts will also increase from 16% to 35%.
Among the added part, 925 USD belongs to automatic driving, the main components are sensors; 725 USD belongs to digitalization, the main components are automotive electronic architecture; the other 2,235 USD belongs to electrification, and the main components are electric drives, on-board chargers, and converters And power system inverter.
BOM cost of automotive electronicsThe proportion increased from 16% to 35%
Data source: Roland Berger, Guotai Junan Securities Research
The pace of 5G commercialization is approaching. Vehicle manufacturers, Internet giants, telecommunications hardware manufacturers, and traditional auto parts manufacturers are doing their best to create an application ecosystem with independent research and development of chips and systems.
The changes in electrical and electronic architecture will simultaneously affect the component market. The DCU, ECU, sensors and other electronic device markets will further develop into a more mature and independent market.
The automotive software and E/E architecture component market is undergoing rapid expansion. In 2020, the software and E/E architecture component market will reach 238 billion U.S. dollars, of which the ECU/DCU market will reach 92 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for nearly 40%.
The software and electrical and electronic architecture market is on the rise
Data source: McKinsey “Automotive Software and Electronics 2030”, Guotai Junan Securities Research
5. Conclusion
We are in “About the next decade of China’s passenger car industry “The Four Key Judgments of “”, “Chinese new energy car companies will evolve from first-mover advantage to technological advantage” as a key judgment.
Have a mature industry chain and good Internet usage habitsConsumers, innovative automakers… When cars are transformed from vehicles into smart terminals, in the eyes of investors who don’t want to miss the next Tesla, Chinese car companies are clearly the next perfect candidates.
In the next ten years, whether Chinese car companies and the huge industrial chain behind them can resonate with new surprises is worth looking forward to.
This article is fromWeChat public account: Guotai Junan Securities Research (ID: gtjaresearch), author: Guotai Junan car team