Just tomorrow, Huawei’s annual developer conference will be held. Seeing September 15th, the last day of the relaxation period of the ban imposed by the United States is approaching, the importance of this critical time point is self-evident.
At this juncture, things have changed again, and bad news one after another.
A comprehensive cut of Korean manufacturers?
According to Korean media “North Korea According to a report from the Daily , Samsung and Hynix, the two largest DRAM (in short, memory) chip manufacturers, may be affected and have to stop supplying Huawei. Earlier, because of this ban, TSMC had cut off its cooperation with Huawei HiSilicon. Yu Chengdong admitted earlier that Kirin 9000 may be the “swan song” of this series.
At the same time, earlier this month, the US chip maker Micron Technology confirmed that it will follow the US’s relevant supply to Huawei. That is to say, after September 14, 2020, Micron will also stop supplying Huawei. Chip supply.
In the first quarter of 2020, the top three in the DRAM market were Samsung, Hynix and Micron, with their shares of 44.1%, 29.3%, and 20.1%, totaling nearly 95%. At the same time, Samsung and Micron have been suppliers of Huawei’s memory chips.
No matter whether it’s a mobile phone, tablet, PC or server, there is no device that does not require storage and flash memory. If mobile SoC can be used with products with relatively low locations and relatively backward manufacturing processes, then for memory chips-this For a field that is completely monopolized by the United States and South Korea, there is nothing to doMethod.
The corresponding news is, Yonofollow”>Yonhap News Agency According to news on September 9th, affected by the US sanctions on Huawei, Samsung Display and LG Display will stop supplying high-end smartphone panels to Huawei from September 15. Since the panel driver IC chip is a sanctioned object, the display panel is also included in the sanctioned category catalog. Samsung Display and LG Display have been supplying some OLED panels for smartphones to Huawei. LGD has also recently begun supplying TV OLED displays to Huawei, but due to the impact of the US sanctions, the supply is expected to be suspended.
You can see that in the supply chain combing table above, many components have been replaced by domestic supply, only screens and memory chips, as well as American and Korean manufacturers. Seeing that the deadline is approaching, it is difficult to say whether Trump’s think tanks are also using such a form to figure out how to completely block Huawei.
A smart phone is a coordinated combination of multiple components. Any problem in any link will affect the shipment volume. Korean media “The Elec” reported that sources revealed that Huawei plans to only produce about 50 million smartphones in 2021, which will plunge 74% of its estimated shipments in 2020. The impact of the ban on Huawei is so cruel and violent.
The lips are dead and the teeth are cold, and Korean suppliers will also be hit hard. The Chosun Ilbo reported that Zhonghua accounted for 6% and 15% of Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor division and Hynix’s sales, respectively. The price of DRAM has fallen a lot from the highest point in 2018. The reason is that oversupply and semiconductor The industry predicts that memory prices may fall steadily in the second half of this year. Nowadays, without such a large customer as Huawei (Huawei is the world’s third-largest company in semiconductor procurement in 2019, second only to Samsung and Apple), business is even worse. Looking at it more macroscopically, this is not limited to memory chips. The entire semiconductor market will face turbulence. This industry that has finally gone through cyclical troughs will face a systemic downturn. In terms of display, Huawei will quickly get rid of Korean supplies. Business, fully turned to domestic production.
Are there alternatives?
As mentioned above, the top three in the DRAM market have accounted for 95