How long will the “transformation and upgrading of cattle” last?
In the first half of the year, with the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the main line of A-shares revolved around the pharmaceutical, food and beverage, and technology industries with phased increases, refreshing the high level during the year. 7Since the month, the market structure has gradually changed, with semiconductor, vaccine, liquor, and soy sauce stocks rising.Bit correction, and the previous stagflation cycle, finance and real estate have all performed recently. Haitong Securities released a strategy report on “Alternative Upsurge” around this change.
In this strategy report, Haitong Securities first reviewed the previous bull market process and market strategy, and focused on the progress of the mainline sector; The stage of the bull market’s round rises was studied, and this bull market was summarized as a “transformation and upgrading bull”; finally, facing the gradual restoration of fundamentals, the medium and long-term main line and cyclical plates were analyzed.
First of all, it is a review of the 2005-07 bull market. The real estate sector is the main line, and small market capitalization companies have phased rises, and finally the main line has reached the top. Within 2 years,The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index rose from 998 points to 6124 points. The increase was as high as 514%. 12-15 years of this roundThere are some differences in the rhythm of the bull market gem and the main board. Originated from the mobile phone represented by the popularization of smartphonesThe Internet wave sweeps the world and drives the market, butIn the most the post market peaked, the market still returned to the main line market.
Haitong Securities stated that the current round of increases is a normal phenomenon of the bull market, and is generallyEnclosed as “transformation and upgrading cattle”,The main manifestation of economic transformation and upgrading lies in: First, China’s technology cycle depends on 5GLeading, focusing on hardware in the early stage, and driving software innovation needs in the middle and late stages; second is consumption upgrades to present the brandThe characteristics of transformation and servicing drive the acceleration of independent brands.
Talking about the response strategy of this bull market, Haitong Securities believes that with the mature application of 5G technology and the promotion of new energy vehicles, the technology industry chain will follow the equipment hardware-content -Software-application scenarios are expanded sequentially.
Looking forward to the coming year and a half to two years, which is the end of this bull market, technology is still the main line of the industry, and the fundamentals will be stronger, such as computers and new energy. Industry chain, etc. Looking at the end of the year, it believes that it is necessary to take into account the logic of economic recovery. The GEM bull market has completed most of the three waves, while the main board bull market is still in progress. After the epidemic has passed, the main board fundamentals are gradually improving, and the market is expected to start early The cycle spread to the backward cycle sector.
Among them, Haitong’s strategy is the first to promote brokerages, and said that it not only has the logic of short-term round ups to compensate for the increase, but also has a gold reform beltThe logic of long-term profitability improvement. In addition,sectors represented by bank real estate have low gains, low valuations, Historically, these industries may be chased by funds in the fourth quarter.
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