The VC industry is really a physical activity, and it is a relatively frequent occurrence of random events.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “Chapter 42” (ID: myfortytwo) , author Qu Kai.
1,
Recently watched some variety shows and found that those who had been eliminated in the previous issues have come back again. There are still many good places, but both the audience and the judges seem to have one thing in mind. It is this kind of player who has returned from the elimination and will not go too far.
I thought about why this is for a long time. The strength before the Ming Dynasty is very strong. Why did the public lose interest and expectation when they came back for the second time?
It’s like the organization looks at the project investment. If the first time you finish talking, you don’t need to vote. It doesn’t need to talk again after the default. No matter how the project develops, a lot of organizations lose contact interest. .
The result is that when we do the FA push project, we will be very cautious about a large number of institutions. Only a very small number of organizations are very reassuring to the founders. It doesn’t matter, you can contact them first. Even if this round does not vote, the latter can be contacted again, and even if the project is developed according to the plan, the possibility of subsequent investment is even greater.
Later, I heard about one thing and wanted to understand some of the truth behind it.
I heard that a head organization is almost not using the next round and voting. The idea is that no matter how the previous investment project is judged, as long as the new round is still optimistic about a project. , then try to do the lead.
In this way, they force themselves to make a judgment. This judgment is not ambiguous. I use the discount and investment method to spread the risk. I must think about whether the project is good enough. Just try to lead, if not good, even if the discount is not followed.
The reason why we were eliminated is that we don’t expect. The reason why we watched the next round is that we don’t want to watch it. In fact, the essential reason may be that the show and investment are very emotional. Decision process, not rational and quantitative.
For example, the college entrance examination is absolutely quantitative. No matter how many times you repeat, as long as the score is high, you can get the final matching result. If the organization can figure out a few criteria when judging the project, and can have ways to keep track and measure, then it can actuallyIn the process of long-term follow-up, there are ways to continue to make judgments.
Otherwise, it is a perceptual feeling. Anyway, I have seen it before, and it seems that it is not very good. It is meaningless to see it later.
So, forcing yourself to think clearly and make decisions is a very difficult and very necessary job.
Second,
In the past few weeks, I went to Suzhou to participate in a sharing event organized by Tongcheng Capital. They gathered hundreds of entrepreneurs in Suzhou. It’s not easy. I joked and they said, we are all the same, actually doing It is an activity operating company.
But then I thought again and thought that I might have inadvertently got some truth. Perhaps the early investment institutions are really essentially advertising marketing companies or event/community operating companies. If you want to invest in good early institutions, there are a few who are not very hard at doing market and community.
The mobile Internet has a lot of institutions, such as real grid, Jingwei, and innovation workshops. Who can say that they are not good advertising companies or event operating companies? Who can say that the bosses of these companies are not? Born marketing and personal PR.
This is in line with my recent thinking about the VC industry.
I now feel that a good mid-early investor needs to have three major abilities, in order:
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Large access to quality projects
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Basic Business Logic Judgment
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The ability to judge entrepreneurs
The first of these is the foundation, which is the ability to maximize the information gap. This determines that any good institution must be a good market/activity operating agency.
I always like to give an example. If a non-partner-level investor feels that the style of the organization or partner hinders the development of the individual, then you can ask yourself two questions:
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What star projects have been successful in the past year?
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I have never seen these projects, have you pushed them?
I believe that most people can’t answer these two questions perfectly. Seeing no seeing, pushing or pushing is actually a personal problem. If you don’t vote or can you vote in it, it’s a problem that can be given to the organization.
Look at the second point, business judgment, I think:
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90% of investors do not have significant discrepancies in industry and company judgment
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The remaining 10% of investors will feel logical and cognitive
But there is a problem. Most of the really good projects, everyone’s judgment is the same, and most of the controversial projects, everyone’s judgment is very poor, so in the non-quantitative In the early stages, the role of business judgment is rather small.
Finally, from the point of view of people, the researcher is a continuous process, very interesting.
For example, what kind of person is “foreign enterprise executives”, why is it that such a person’s entrepreneurship is difficult to succeed? How can these people better get rid of these labels? For example, what kind of person is enough “Sharp”, how to judge and practice your own Sharp ability?
The most effective way to enhance entrepreneurial judgment is to see more people, better people, and more investment experience. This is similar to the first point. Still have to pursue information gaps.
This is like an article I saw before. The best asset of a good organization is access, which is the ability to continuously reach more and better entrepreneurs. These accesses come from Investment projects and fund brands.
3,
Looking back, what kind of mentality and what kind of mentality can be an investor?
I think the best way is to really think of yourself as an investor, not a migrant. In other words, everyone should think, will I really want to vote for this company and give it to this person?
Or if I really invest with my own money, will I change my current way of finding projects and judging projects?
In fact, especially the above assumption,I don’t think it should be a hypothesis. I believe that most VCs that have been long enough will recognize my two conclusions:
1) VC is not necessarily a good industry
People have a habit, that is, the first half of life is an open mind, to reach more people, more things, and at some point will begin to precipitate, more about their own established cognition and Friends who are screened around do things.
But the VC industry is always full of newcomers and new things, so no matter how successful and experienced investors are, if there is a time when they are not in the first line, they may be very crippled, or they may easily miss or make mistakes.
So the VC industry is really a physical activity, and it is a relatively frequent occurrence of random events.
2) It’s really hard to make big money when working in VC
So really need to put your own money into it, it is the true meaning of mixing in the VC industry, or you should really do FA.
There is another problem that comes with it. Even if you only have 100,000 investable assets, why can’t you divide 5 20,000 pieces and go to invest in 5 projects?
If you don’t have the confidence or ability to find 5 good enough projects and invest in them, how can you convince others that you are a good investor?
So if I am a fund myself, I must ask everyone who comes in from top to bottom to put money in, so that everyone can be a “mature”, “responsible” investor. .
This may also be why a large number of funds in the United States have only “partners.”
4,
I went to listen to the sharing of the high-value investment class last month. Qiu Guolu and others talked about a lot of value investing. I found an interesting thing, that is, in the end, they will mention one point, that is, through value investment. The idea is to study and eventually “overcome anxiety, can fall asleep.”, or “make peace” as Zhang Lei said.
I thought about talking to people in the secondary market and going to the primary market. Why do I change the line? The answer basically says that the secondary market is too anxious, the liquidity is strong, the decision frequency is high, and the investment result It will appear overnight…
So I used to think that value investing is a methodology for studying business. Today, I suddenly feel that value investing may also be like a religion in the secondary market, and it is the sustenance and way of pursuing self peace..
In the end, everyone is going to find a way to harmonize and unite with their own hearts. When they stand in different positions, they will have different experiences.
The way I think the people in the primary market and themselves make peace is to find and give the money to the absolute nb.
In this way, on the basis of constantly pursuing information gaps, try to improve your business cognition and ability to recognize people. You really want to invest your money enough for nb people. If you let me come again, this Probably will be the way I invest.
5,
Finally, let’s share with you a recent interesting change.
Recently, I suddenly felt that I had experienced a phased change, that is, I have been trying to improve my cognition for a few years, and recently I felt that I have broken through the stage of raising my cognition, but instead Returning to the stage of returning to the truth is to pursue the stage of knowing and doing.
It’s really difficult to put things that you’ve figured out into execution.
Common with everyone.