Seniors stocks, middle-aged people speculate, young people fry shoes.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “Growing Black Box Growthbox” (ID :Growthbox2), by Koc&Haokai&Mera.
This article is especially grateful to senior sneaker enthusiasts, American economics Ph.D. Pixiong; American Amazon economist, Cornell University economics doctor Sun Yizheng. Thanks to the two doctors for their help in this study.
Declaration: This research has no interest in any relationship with the third party. It is independently completed for the growth black box and is only used for industry research reference and academic exchange.
Recently, a friend of the investment circle told us: the elderly stocks, middle-aged people speculate, young people are shoes.
When we frequently see someone in the circle of friends who is gaining money on the shoes;
When a casual shoe investment group can flash thousands of unread messages every day;
When we can see the sneaker advertisement on the TV in our office space hall;
We know that the days after starting to look at stocks every morning after 60 may be replaced by the scene of brushing shoes every day after 95. If you don’t know how hot the sneaker market is now, it feels like it’s wrong.After a few hundred million.
In February of this year, we wrote an article about sneakers, “Selling shoes like stocks?” The annual sales of tens of billions of sneakers is on the rise. After half a year, the sneaker resale market has become even more popular – the more expensive the shoes and the influx of capital. A pair of official price of 1399 yuan SOLEFLY x AIR JORDAN 1 joint 2018 edition, the price of the shoe market has soared to 28,599 yuan.
How big is the sneaker market?
According to Grand View Research, the global sports shoe market will reach $95.1 billion in 2025; domestic and international shoe resale platforms have received substantial capital blessings:
The US shoe resale platform StockX completed the C round of $110 million in financing in June 2019, with a valuation of $1 billion and officially entered the Unicorn Club.
The domestic shoe resale market is also growing at a high rate. At present, China’s largest shoe resale platform, Tiger’s drug app, completed the A round of financing from DST in April 2019, with a valuation of 1 billion US dollars.
The second largest sneaker resale platform in the country, nice (formerly a picture social platform), also completed the D round of tens of millions of dollars in June 2019.
In addition, bullfighting, UFO, get and many other sneaker reselling platforms have emerged.
How popular is the sneaker resale platform?
According to the latest report of the US BOF in June 2019, the StockM monthly GMV reached $100 million.
According to the domestic 36kr report at the end of April 2019, the drug app has a GMV of over 10 billion yuan in 2018 and a monthly life of over 800W in 2019;
Tiger Sniffs mentioned in the July 2019 article that after Nicole officially transformed and sold sneakers in 2018, it took only 5 months to achieve a monthly GMV of over 100 million yuan, 2019 months. Live to 316W.
At this point, we have the following doubts about such a hot shoe resale market:
Are the real data of each platform growing as fast as the media disclosed?
Who are buying shoes on the sneaker resale platform? What is the consumption data?
Which premium is the highest for each platform? Which platform sellers make the most money?
Can the sneaker resale platform continue to grow?
So we decided to explore the real situation of domestic and foreign mainstream shoe reselling platforms by the following methods:
By analyzing the visible data of StockX, Poison App, Nice and the three major sneaker reselling platforms at home and abroad, the operation of the three platforms is analyzed horizontally from the dimensions of commodity information, transaction records and user activity.
Collect public information about StockX, Poison App, nice, review the historical development process of the three platforms, and analyze the business model and future development direction of domestic and foreign shoe reselling platforms.
1. Mining StockX, Poison App, nice real-world operational data
StockX: Founded in the United States in 2015, it was formerly the most important trading center in the used sports shoes market, Campless. The idea is to let users trade sneakers like stocks.
Poison App: China’s largest sports website, Tiger’s products, officially launched “Poison APP” in 2015, and started the shoe trading function in August 2017.
nice: In October 2013, nice was officially launched, positioning the social platform for pictures, but it has been tepid. In 2018, it officially transformed into a “influx of people + sneaker trading platform”, and opened the shoes from then on. The road to reselling.
In order to restore the real situation of the shoe resale market, we analyzed all visible public data on the App side of StockX, Poison App, and Nice, totaling about 110,000 item data and 22.42 million transaction records. .
Data dimensions include but are not limited to: product name, type, price, transaction history, transaction price, transaction time, etc.
The dataset coverage time span is as follows:
The data is de-cleaned and the statistics are as follows:
1.1 Trading Volume (GMV) and Trading Volume of the Three Platforms
By comparing the trading volume and GMV of the three platforms from July 2018 to July 2019, we can find that the trading volume and GMV of the poison app are three times that of StockX; although the StockX platform The number of commodities is richer than the other two platforms, but from the number of transactions and the scale of transactions, the drug App has become the world’s largest platform for the resale of shoes, which can be called “a poisonous”.
In 2018, only from the picture social platform to transform the sneaker resale trading platform nice, after the first-come, but also in the total transaction volume over StockX, GMV is close to twice the StockX, if you look at GMV, nice also Has become the world’s second largest sneaker resale platform.
Through the comparison of time dimensions, we can see that all three platforms at home and abroad are growing. Among them, StockX’s growth rate is the slowest but steady; Nice started to surpass StockX in early 2019, and then nice under the capital’s blessing, growing at a rate of more than 200% in July, has faintly caught the momentum of over-toxic apps on GMV; App’s rally was strong, ranking first among the three. Although the gains in April-May have declined, it has returned to its previous high-speed growth in the past two months.
In the process of analysis, we found that in addition to accepting the resale of shoes, the three platforms also open resale transactions of other categories, such as fashion apparel, jewelry, watches, bags and other categories. By comparing the transaction volume of the three platforms according to the category of goods, we can see that on StockX, more than 30% of the revenue comes from commodity transactions other than shoes; compared with domestic drug apps and nice, more than 90% of platform revenue Mainly from the footwear trade.
In summary, the overall GMV of the three platforms at home and abroad are growing. StockX’s overall compound growth rate has increased steadily at 11% in the most recent year; Poison App and Nice have 74% each in the last year. And 38% of the overall compound growth rate of high-speed growth, especially in the last month, nice more than 200% growth, has gradually catched up with the trend of drug apps. If you look at GMV data alone, Poison App has become the world’s largest shoe resale platform, with nice for second and StockX for third.
1.2. Profit model and revenue estimation for the three platforms
The operating modes of the three platforms are almost identical: in the C2B2C model, as an intermediate appraisal and platform, the buyers and sellers will be accurately docked to provide identification, packaging, warehousing and trading functions. The profit model is similar: the seller is charged a certain percentage of the service fee, and the buyer is charged an appraisal fee.
So, Let’s first calculate the amount of money that the platform has earned from the shoe sellers in the past year (July 2018 to July 2019):
Because the data on the identification of sneakers is more complicated, we will simply estimate: According to the official data of the Poison App, about 10 million sneakers can be identified in one year, and half of the income is distributed to the appraisers. At the same time, the user’s first identification is free. In this case, the revenue of the shoe identification will not exceed 50 million – this ratio is still very low compared to the transaction service fee. For nice, the authentication service is provided entirely by the service provider, and the full platform (plus its own channel) has an identification of only 2 million. So this part of the income is almost negligible.
Therefore, we estimate the revenue of the three platforms for one year:
StockX: About 560 million yuan
Poison App: about 1.24 billion yuan
nice: about 780 million yuan
2. Who is buying shoes? Someone bought 5,703 pairs of shoes in half a year
I believe the above data has fully demonstrated the popularity of the shoe market – only three vertical platforms have generated nearly 30 billion transactions! Who is supported by such a large market?
In order to study the users of the shoe trade, we calculated the top ten users who bought the most sneakers in the first half of the poison application (January 24 to July 23, 2019) and calculated the number of their purchases. And the amount of the transaction. The result was an interesting phenomenon: there was once a buyer who bought 5,703 pairs of shoes on the poison app for half a year. The users of these Top10 transactions have generated 23,635 transactions in just half a year, totaling about 34 million yuan in transactions!
see here Everyone must be very curious, what kind of buyer users are the sneaker resale market?
So, next, we will continue to analyze the transaction data of the poison app to see who is supporting the market of tens of billions of yuan (cycle is January 24-July 2019) 23rd).
According to the statistics of Euromonitor, China’s per capita sneakers are 0.4 pairs, Americans are 4.3 pairs, Europeans are 3.7 pairs, and Japan’s 4.4 pairs are average. Compared with developed countries, China’s per capita sports shoes have The amount is low.
How many pairs of shoes do you have on your app? According to the records of 4.71 million buyers, it can be calculated that the number of shoes purchased by buyers on the App in the past six months is 1.68 pairs, and the average unit price is 2,164 yuan, which is much higher than the number of 0.4 pairs of sports shoes per capita in China.
2.1. Ordinary users vs professional buyers, who bought the most?
Let’s take into account the particularity of the sneaker culture, let’s redefine the portrait of the buyer user:
By analyzing the proportion of buyer users, we can see that 88% of ordinary buyers have purchased 1-2 pairs of shoes; 12% of professional buyers have purchased more than 3 pairs. Ordinary users are still the main group on the poison app, and the consumption purpose of this part of the user may be used for collecting or wearing. And those who buy more than 3 pairs of professional buyers, the purpose of buying shoes may be for collection or investment.
From the transaction amount we can see an amazing discovery:
88% of regular buyers contributed 54% of the transaction amount
12% of professional buyers contributed 46% of the transaction amount
Do the target users of Poison App really be ordinary users and sneaker lovers? Or are you sneakers who are profitable through the sale of sneakers? Whether the same problem exists in other platforms.
In a recent interview with Tence Technology’s first CEO of Nice CEO, the focus of the nice service was on users who bought shoes for collection or investment purposes, rather than “just want to buy shoes. user”.
This may hint at the current growth strategy of the sneaker market, and professional buyers aiming at profitability are the key factors supporting GMV.
So, can we find clues from the data? We will start with the analysis of the data for nearly half a year.
First look at this picture: The following is the counted number of first-time orders placed between January 24 and July 23, 2019. We can see that the overall number of active orders is growing.
Similarly, we follow the user classification of the general buyer and the expert buyer above to re-count the number of first-time users who are added for the first time in six months. It can be seen that the number of professional buyers who placed orders for the first time in six months, although there is a slight fluctuation between months, the overall trend is gradually increasing, and more and more professional buyers are adding poison apps.
This shows that not only is the number of active buyers on the platform growing steadily, but the proportion of professional buyers is increasing. It can be seen that the poison app has intensified its dependence on professional buyers in the process of growth, resulting in the concentration of resources. Due to the large and stable trading volume of professional buyers, the increase in the proportion of this group of people is beneficial to the growth of GMV. On the other hand, this will also bring negative effects such as price monopoly, causing user loss – don’t forget that 88% of users are ordinary buyers.
3. Where do you sell the most money? Analysis of the premium rate of the three platform shoes
If you want to judge whether a pair of shoes is worthwhile, we have to compare the issue price of the shoe with the selling price at a certain point in time. The difference is the premium; the premium is divided by the official issue price. Premium Rate.
Through the formula of the premium rate, we can see that the higher the premium rate, the more money the seller can earn. Next, we analyze and compare their premium rates based on the transaction data of the three platforms.
It can be seen that StockX’s premium rate for the past year has been relatively stable, mostly between 0% and 20%, and has increased between January, June and July 2019. The premium rate of Poison App is relatively stable, but it is the lowest among the three platforms in general; the premium rate has risen to over 20% before and after the “618” event, and has been at a 5%-negative 10% premium rate since late March. Fluctuating between. Nice’s premium rate fluctuated widely, and the overall premium rate was the highest among the three platforms. Especially since entering May, the premium rate has soared by more than 70%.
We are very curious, isn’t nice really a “printer” for sneaker players?
3.1. Why is the premium rate of nice so high?
After mining the data, we found that the high premium rate transactions on the nice platform were mainly from pre-sale shoes (the payment was started before the sale). Nice promises that the seller must be 45 after placing the orderShipped within days, if the seller does not ship within 45 days or the physical object does not match the order, the buyer can get 6.4% of the order amount as compensation.
In the survey, we found that there are a lot of pre-sale shoes in the poison app only product information but there is no transaction, although the drug app also has pre-sale function, but it is difficult to find the pre-sale style on the poison app. .
Why are these shoes only available on the nice platform? Does this mean that Nice has exclusive sources of supply or other strategies? This issue is not the focus of this article, so I won’t delve into it here.
In order to more clearly compare the premium rate between the pre-sale premium rate and the spot transaction, we use the poison app as a benchmark to observe the change in the premium rate within half a year. It can be seen that the spot premium rate of nice is close to the spot premium rate of poison, but the pre-sale premium rate of nice is very volatile, and the highest is over 350% premium.
In summary, we can explain why the overall premium rate of nice is much higher than that of StockX and Poison App: By calculating GMV, we found that the pre-sale transaction GEV of Nice is 1.3 billion yuan, accounting for half a year. 20% of the total GMV. In other words, the ultra-high pre-sale premium rate is the key to nice “making money”. The pre-sale mechanism is also an important driving force behind the growth of nice GMV.
4. Summary: Is the sneaker resale market sustainable?
After comparing the median monthly premium rate of StockX for six years from 2012 and the new frequency of sneakers on the market, we can find that the premium of sneakers is highly negatively correlated with the frequency of issuance:
Since 2016, the frequency of the launch of the new sneakers has been on.Gradually increasing, the premium rate on the StockX platform began to decrease in mid-2016 (considering the market’s certain reaction delay). At the end of 2019, the premium rate was close to zero, which shows that when the new shoes are on sale. As the frequency increases, the resale market premium rate decreases.
In addition to sports brands such as Adidas and Nike, all kinds of luxury goods and new fashion brands have joined the big market of sneakers. It is foreseeable that the frequency of new sneakers will be higher and higher in the future. Then the overall premium rate of the future resale market will continue to decline, and the overall resale market transaction scale will continue to shrink.
So if the overall sneaker resale market is not sustainable, how will the sneaker resale platform develop in the future? By backtracking the history of StockX, we found that StockX has actually made a response strategy.
In January 2017, starting from Canada to expand international markets outside the United States;
From May to October 2017, expanding categories: watches, bags, fashion brands;
In October 2018, increase the currency types available for payment;
In January 2019, the IPO gameplay was added, and the joint designer brand made new products on its platform;
In June 2019, entered Italy;
In October 2019, it is expected to enter the Chinese market.
We can see that the main response strategy of StockX is:
Expand other categories, such as used watches, second-hand bags, street fashion, etc.;
Actively expand overseas markets;
Try to start a new product.
Since 2017, StockX has expanded its second-hand watches, second-hand bags, and fashion brands. As you can see from the picture below, the trading volume of products other than shoes is on the basis ofYearly increase. At this point, StockX is not just a shoe resale trading platform, but rather a “stock for everything” that they defined for themselves, becoming a platform for securitization of various commodities.
In an interview with the New York Times, StockX’s new CEO, Scott Cutler, mentioned that the $110 million financing plan will be used to open up international markets and launch new products. StockX has been actively expanding into the international market since 2017, attracting more sneaker consumers from different countries.
In addition to increasing the category and overseas market expansion, StockX boldly tested the water as a new channel for new products. In January 2019, StockX tested a new launch method similar to the “I.P.O.” model. They launched a limited edition sandal designed by a well-known jewellery designer, Ben Baller, to get consumers to bid through a “Dutch auction”. The final average transaction price is $210, which is three times the retail price of the market, but lower than most auction prices. It is said that this new product launch test was very successful, after which a lot of designers and brands rushed to seek cooperation with StockX to start a new product.
StockX’s joint designer/brand new product launch strategy reminds us of Farfatch, an online luxury fashion retailer that went on sale at the end of 2018. The main strategies adopted by Farfatch to become an important sales channel for major luxury brands include new product launches, exclusive launches, and innovative partnerships with major brands. Comparing the development strategy of StockX, we can see that its platform has been developed from the early resale of sneakers and the second-hand trading platform to the securitization e-commerce trading platform. Through the new product launch strategy and other concepts, the concept of the first- and second-tier market is blurred. They aim to break the traditional fixed retail price model and establish an online trading platform for commodities that is determined by the market supply and demand relationship, such as the securities market, to become a subversive trading model. New e-commerce traffic entrance.
By analyzing the trend of sales of other products of Poison App, we can see that the Pomodity App platform has also begun to adopt a strategy of expanding multi-category, from a single shoe resale platform to a trend e-commerce development. Different from StockXOther products in GMV accounted for 31%, and currently 93% of GMV’s GMV still comes from sneakers, while the support of 46% GMV is 12% of professional sneaker buyers. More and more professional buyers are pouring into drug apps, which shows that their future growth still depends on professional buyers. However, too many professional buyers are likely to cause price monopoly, which is easy to harm ordinary users and cause user loss. After all, 88% of users on the poison app are ordinary buyers.
In contrast, nice has been doing the opposite since the end of 2018, and the volume of other commodities other than sneakers has fallen sharply, from 30% to 10%. This can also be seen from its GMV, only 4% of GMV comes from other commodity transactions. It can be seen that the main strategic direction of nice in the future is to increase the GMV of the shoes. This is also in line with the mention of the CEO of Nice, which was mentioned in the interview. The focus of the nice service is for users who buy shoes for collection or investment purposes, instead of “only I want to buy a small white user of the shoes.” However, focusing on service professional buyers and using “pre-sale” mechanisms as growth strategies is likely to fall into the growth bottleneck and limit the development of the platform.
The rise of trend culture has brought new opportunities. I hope that China’s sneaker resale platform should not be confused by short-term interests and vanity indicators such as shoes, GMV, and seriously explore new trading models and emerging markets. Insist on doing valuable growth. At the same time, we will continue to pay attention.