The greater the social controversy, the faster the evolution of the business model?

Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “two said” (ID: chongershuo ), the author said.

E-cigarettes and artificial meat, why the

This year, the venture capital circle has gone down. The primary market is very cool. In the first half of the year, there were 2,787 financings, which is only equivalent to the level of 2014. Many founders have seen 3-digit VCs. In order to get the angel wheel.

In the era when capital is looking for temples, the innovation is concentrated on the to c level. Most of them are channel, mode and medium optimization. The information is poorly graded. It is not important that the subsidy is always needed. The second half of the vents turned to the b service, it is necessary to deeply embedded in the real economy, regardless of 5G, AI or new medical care, new finance, new energy, new retail, new travel, all the giants special.

Where is the counterattack opportunity of the consumer Internet? The answer lies in the history of human addiction for 500 years.

The world’s three recognized consumer addictions – tobacco, alcohol and coffee – have suffered from all kinds of hardships. Tobacco does not have to say that the United States has implemented a 13-year ban on alcohol. Coffee was taught in the UK and Sweden. Heavy taxes, in the 17th century Ottoman Turkey, anyone who is keen on these three major addictions will be cut off by Sultan Murad IV.

It seems that all addictive consumption is a bad habit, but the characteristic of “addiction” is habitual dependence. The greater the social pressure, the faster the evolution and innovation of business models. Just keep up with the trend is always a slogan.

For example, the world is controlling tobacco. The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, which came into effect on February 27, 2005, uses raw materials for tobacco to define whether it is a tobacco product. As a result, it has indirectly promoted the development of electronic cigarettes. There is only one e-cigarette company in China in the world. By 2015, there are more than 500 companies and more than 8,000 products. Therefore, the restrictions on nicotine heating and aerosol delivery products had to be added by the 2014 revision of the Convention.

The restriction of alcohol is not less than that of tobacco. In 2006, the Regulations on the Administration of Alcohol Circulation of the Ministry of Commerce prohibited the sale of alcohol to minors. The Law on the Protection of Minors in China also has similar regulations, but the data of COFCO shows that 80 After, after 90, and after 00, more and more preference for spirits, thisIt is in line with the stagnation of global wine consumption, the violent fluctuation of beer, and the rapid rise of hard liquor. Of course, it has become the direction of Jiang Xiaobai’s efforts.

The most powerful thing is coffee, almost the evolution of the whole scene consumption, Starbucks from the dine to the takeaway, Ruixing from the takeaway to the dine, independent coffee, brand chain, Shangchao retail and home grinding beans have a living space.

“Addiction” consumption represents the oldest and most primitive needs of human beings, such as our fascination with red meat and desserts. Many people do not understand the old vents such as e-cigarettes and artificial meats. The birth of tobacco has been around for half a century. As for artificial meat, it was seen in 1960 when China launched the food movement.

Many human consumption habits have been shown to cause serious health damage by modern science, but we prefer alternatives and are not willing to give up. This is an opportunity.

How big is the business opportunity behind? Last year, the total tax revenue of China National Tobacco Corporation was 1,155.6 billion yuan, equivalent to 4 industrial and commercial banks, 10 China Mobile or 20 Huawei, which is six times the total profit of BAT.

So “addictive” consumption has become a slogan, not social ethics but business logic. The deterioration of the external atmosphere has not eliminated demand, but has accelerated the rise of alternatives.

The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control entered into force in China in 2006. In the next 10 years, the tax rate per cigarette in China increased from 21.9 yuan to 82.5 yuan, and the retail price increased from 50.8 yuan to 125.7 yuan, an average annual increase. 10.6%, much higher than the growth of the consumer price index for the same period.

The tax, social and legal pressures created by 71 of the 181 countries that have joined the Convention have only forced smokers to passively change consumption habits and smoldering scenarios. According to Euromonitor, global new tobacco last year The market size reached US$27.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60.6%, which basically filled the decline in traditional cigarettes.

Artificial meat is also a product of this pressure, and is a collection of ideas and emotions.

First of all, after a lot of science, the harm of red meat, especially processed meat products, is well known;

A documentary like “Food Company” and “The Dilemma of the Meat Eater” almost demonizes the modern food industry;

The image of a broiler full of test tubes is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Even the most determined meat lovers believe that animals can’t live without quality, and humans can’t eat healthy;

The livestock industry produces 15% of the world’s greenhouse gases, and the total population will exceed 9.5 billion in the next 30 years. The current environment and resources do not allow us to raise and slaughter more livestock to satisfy ourselves.

So finding an artificial product that tastes close to meat and can overcome psychological, dynamic, environmental and continuous mass production is the best solution. This demand is more than e-cigarette.