How will the competition develop in the future?
In June 2018, Shunfeng Express, which is known as “the first domestic express delivery”, launched the “E-city rush” business, adding another fire to the hot instant distribution market.
At that time, under the cold winter of capital, the news of successful financing in the industry is also endless. The root cause of the market is the market. According to the relevant statistics of the State Post Bureau, in recent years, the same-city express delivery that provides instant delivery has become the fastest growing sub-sector in the logistics industry, and will maintain a growth rate of 30% in the next five years. By 2020, the market size will exceed 200 billion yuan. The huge potential attracts the attention and layout of the capital. The startup company, the Internet giant, and the traditional express industry leader, the three players gather at the track to prepare for the high and low.
So, how does “instant delivery” develop so rapidly? What kind of competition has emerged in the market war of smoke? As an emerging trend, what will happen to the future development of real-time distribution?
01 Technology blessing, seniors open, consumer assistance
First of all, the rapid expansion of the real-time distribution market is inseparable from the technological advancement of the mobile Internet era, especially the development and widespread application of big data, AI artificial intelligence, LBS, intelligent scheduling and other technologies.
Big data based on the development of the Internet and cloud computing can achieve typical applications in the logistics industry that produce massive amounts of data every day, dynamically adapt to the ever-changing market environment, and meet the increasingly personalized customer needs. AI artificial intelligence has to face the complex real physical world, deep perception, correct understanding and accurate prediction, and complete complex decisions in an instant.
LBS can obtain the location information of mobile terminal users, and provide corresponding services for users under the support of GIS platform. The location function, road condition information, weather forecast, and nearby businesses in the circle of friends are all applied to LBS. The intelligent dispatching system is the technical core of each platform. It intelligently matches orders with real-time scenarios such as task volume, delivery distance, single-spot situation, rating, etc., to achieve automatic scheduling and global optimal allocation of resources, and maximize user experience. .
Secondly, the rapid outbreak of instant delivery is inseparable from the three big take-out platforms and taxi fights, and the completed market education.
From 2011 to 2018, the take-out platform promoted the promotion of merchants and users, which drove the surge in orders. As of last year, the total transaction volume of the take-away market reached 441.5 billion yuan, and the number of users reached 406 million. Nearly one-third of the population has developed the habit of paying for mobile phone orders. Didi and the quick set off a taxi fight, also provided soil for the same city express delivery market. Through the platform to place orders, harvest goods or services, become the familiar thinking of users, and lay the market and user base for various commercial APPs.
That again, under the general trend of consumption upgrades, the fast-paced life and the development of the lazy economy have become the driving force for the development of the real-time distribution industry.
In recent years, the middle-income group has grown rapidly, driving the third upgrade of the consumption structure. People pay more attention to the quality of goods and personalized services, and service consumption shows a strong growth momentum.
With the accelerated pace of life, people are paying more attention to the value of time, diversified and segmented generation of delivery services, so that everyone is willing to “spend money to buy time”, instant delivery will come into being, its professional Sex and convenience, in turn, have spawned more demand and employment.
In the pursuit of faster and faster, people are becoming more and more lazy. The mobile phone orders to buy vegetables and fruits. On weekends, they find a housekeeper to clean the house. Even the dog can find someone to do it for convenience. The lazy economy has spawned a new blue ocean, which provides room for immediate distribution.
02 Giants besieged the city, it is difficult to shake the C end wall
At present, there are many influxes in the real-time distribution field, mainly in three categories: one is established in 2014, the old-fashioned express delivery companies such as Flash, Dada, UU errands, etc., and the second is the instant delivery originating from the take-away mode, such as hungry The distribution of hummingbirds, the US group’s beauty group delivery team, Jingdong’s home to the new Dada, etc.; the third is SF, Yuantong, Yunda and other traditional logistics enterprises, SF’s immediate delivery business, Yuantong’s timing, Yunda’s cloud delivery Match. The players on the track gathered to make a splash in this emerging market.
In the battle for cakes, the advantages of each family are very obvious in terms of data. In the second quarter of 2018, the market share of China’s instant distribution platform orders was ranked first in the distribution of hummingbirds, accounting for 29.7%; the second new Dada accounted for 25.1%, and the third US group’s take-away distribution accounted for 23.5%. The flash is ranked fifth, accounting for 5.7%, and other platforms accounted for 9.1%.
Instant Distribution This segment of logistics, most of the orders come from B-end customers. Behind Hummingbird, Xindada and Meituan, they correspond to Ali, JD.com and Meituan. The three merchant resources and huge traffic portals play a key role in the growth of orders and shares.
In the case of hummingbirds, the new retail business orders for hummingbirds in the second half of 2018 increased year-on-year.185%, the annual hummingbird pharmaceutical orders increased by more than 500%, the development effect of non-meal scenes is obvious, it is inseparable from Ali’s help. As the core asset of “Hungry?”, Ali at the beginning of the acquisition, the hummingbird was included in its “three-kilometer ideal life circle”, providing 30-minute door-to-door service for Taobao, Tmall, Suning and Boxma Fresh. Behind the “half-hour” and 24-hour family emergency service, “Tmall supermarket one hour”, and many first-line brands “online delivery of two-hour delivery”, there are hummingbirds.
Relying on the giants, the massive orders from the B-end customers have become the engine for the rapid development of Hummingbird Distribution, New Dada and Meituan Take-out, and have brought tremendous competitive pressure to these established companies.
However, absolute mass does not represent an absolute advantage. Compared to the C-end market, which is accidental, low-frequency, and unplanned, the B-end market has lower entry barriers. The daily order volume, billing time and delivery range can be roughly determined. As long as you have strong capital, increase subsidies and recruit people, it is relatively easy to start. The C-end market has high trade barriers, and it is not easy to break.
First of all, the C-end market is a one-on-one rush to the business. The chance is too strong, there is no predictability, and the order frequency is very low. The main business of the take-out platform is high-frequency and concentrated, and it cannot fully match the demand of instant delivery, and the high probability will end in failure.
Secondly, low-frequency individual user needs cannot be stimulated by traditional subsidies. The user’s dependence and stickiness on the platform comes more from the recognition and trust of the brand. The C-end market is connected to the demand and capacity supply at both ends. In any case, it will affect the user experience and the mood of the distributor. In the end, it is more important to manage the C-end and intensive farming than the financial atmosphere.
Finally, flash-oriented, UU errands and other C-oriented companies have accumulated word of mouth in years of operation, coupled with recent publicity and brand upgrades, once customers have such needs, the first time they think of It is them, which undoubtedly set obstacles for the latecomers.
This is the key to the C-side instant distribution enterprise, such as flash, UU errands, and the unbeaten position.
However, it is difficult to get in and it is relatively easy to get out. From the current layout of the parties and the future development, the two sides of the BC integrate development, improve technical efficiency, and become the development direction of the real-time distribution market.
03 Integration, efficiency first
As the speed of financing continues to accelerate, real-time distribution companies that have achieved good results in the C-end field will not rule out the possibility of joint development at both ends of B and C in the future. In order to enhance the overall operational strength, the parties may also cooperate to attract more markets. The concept of the distribution category will also be upgraded from a single “takeaway delivery” to a complete catering chain and various categories of home-to-home services to achieve full coverage.
Efficiency is the life of instant delivery. Ai Media Consulting and RecruitmentAccording to the statistics of the securities statistics, the user’s expected delivery time is 18.2% within 10 minutes, 70.5% within 30 minutes, and 11.3% within 1 hour. Related to timeliness, whether the business capacity can be directly proportional to the user’s demand, how to reduce the distribution cost and other issues, through the beginning and end of real-time logistics.
In crowdsourcing mode, the rider’s acquisition is not difficult, the key is how to allocate capacity and demand. “Fast” is just a manifestation of competitiveness. The core competitiveness of the same city distribution enterprise lies in the systematic logistics data service capability. Ironing also needs its own hard, instant delivery will usher in the three-kilometer life cycle of the minute-level distribution revolution, artificial intelligence and big data applications, will enable the real-time distribution of resource allocation to be continuously optimized, thereby reducing costs and improving distribution efficiency.
In addition, the application of drones and unmanned trucks is also being developed. The in-vehicle system and software and hardware platforms using artificial intelligence algorithms can realize the knowledge of drones or cars from perception, interaction, understanding to decision-making. Solving the problem of “several tens of kilometers in the middle”, the linear delivery process that was responsible for the entire distribution process was changed to a block-based distribution process, thereby reducing time and labor costs and winning in the battle for efficiency.