This article is from WeChat official account:Entertainment Capital Theory, author: Yali, FIG head source:” rivers 2 “

Some time ago, the main creator of the “Tourist Inspection Team” questioned the ratings of “Dajiang Dahe 2” on Weibo, and the ratings of Sofore City were seriously polluted, which caused quite a bit of controversy.

According to screenwriter Yu Fei, the ratings of Kuyun for “Tour Inspection Team” are 4 times that of “Dajiang Dahe 2”, and the ratings of CSM National Network are twice that of “Dajiang Dahe 2”, but CSM63 City’s ratings are 0.12 lower than “Dajiang Dahe 2”, “logic cannot be self-consistent”.

Li Xuezheng, the chief producer of the “Itinerant Inspection Team,” also expressed his hope that Sofrey’s metropolitan area network will reform the viewing rules of model households and completely cut off the big cancer of the cultural industry that is falsified ratings.

The flooding of ratings is nothing new, but this year the audience’s physical sense is especially obvious. Not long ago, Entertainment Capital calculated the CSM city network ratings of five Davids TV’s prime-time TV series in the past five years, and was surprised to find that the number of episodes with a ratings of over 1% this year has increased by 73% compared with last year, and the ratings have broken. 2% of the episodes have soared from scratch to 23!

Not only is the ratings booming, the Douban scores of domestic dramas are also rising. Since 2019, many viewers have found that the Douban scores of domestic dramas are getting higher and higher. This is not an illusion. According to the statistics of Entertainment Capital, This year’s domestic dramas have scored more than 7 points in half a year, an increase of 44% compared with last year, and dramas with a score of more than 8 directly doubled, an increase of 120%.

In addition to the ratings and Douban scores, the two major indicators for measuring the influence of drama series, the popularity of domestic dramas has also undergone subtle changes. As we all know, both iQiyi and Youku have cancelled the display of the front-end playback volume, and replaced it with a heat value calculated by integrating multiple indicators. After combing, the Entertainment Capital Theory found that the popularity of dramas in 2020 also has a certain degree of inflation.

Who has the final say if a drama is not popular? In today’s severe inflation of ratings and Douban ratings, what is the standard to measure the quality of a drama? Although many judgment systems can no longer reflect the real situation, we can still see the changes in domestic dramas over the years by comparing different data dimensions.

Viewing rate: In 2020, the ratings will break 1% and increase by 73%, and break 2% and increase to 23 movies

“No matter how smoggy this industry continues, there will be no future at all.”

In September 2018, director Guo Jingyu broke the news in a speech at Hubei University. Nowadays, the phenomenon of ratings fraud is rampant in the film and television industry. The price of “Mother’s Way” is 1.3 million per episode, which can be bought at a price of 900,000 yuan per episode. Satellite TV can arrange the broadcast. After the full text of the speech was made public, it quickly attracted industry attention. The State Administration of Radio, Film and Television also stated that it will investigate the fraudulent ratings.

201On December 26, 2008, the State Administration of Radio and Television held a press conference in Beijing, announcing that the Big Data System for Comprehensive Evaluation of Radio and Television Program Ratings of the State Administration of Radio and Television was basically completed and put into trial operation. This is the Chinese audiovisual big data (CVB) announced today.

Can this latest official standard change ratings and create confusion? A TV staff member told Entertainment Capital that at present, China’s audio-visual big data has not become the industry’s accepted rating evaluation standard for two main reasons:

One reason is that the system hasn’t been launched for a long time, and its distribution channels are limited, and its dissemination is not wide; the other is that it often adds up the ratings of the same drama on two satellite TVs, which is difficult for advertisers to use Determine which TV to vote for, “I guess they may value content dissemination more and don’t care about channel differences.”

The traditional ratings system, that is, the ratings of CSM City Network, which are the favorites of satellite TV and advertisers, “the pollution is very serious this year.” A TV operator said that it is best to compare the ratings of CSM63 City with other rating systems. “CSM63 City has a high rating for big cities and is easy to be polluted. The national network is divided into rural areas and metropolitan areas. It can be compared with the data of CSM city network.”

Indeed, the ratings of CSM City Network have been inflated in the past five years. In 2018, the ratings of CSM City Network were generally low. In 2016, the dramas with a ratings exceeding 2% were “Dear Translator”, and the dramas with a ratings exceeding 2% in 2017 were “In the Name of the People” and “The Flower of the Year That Year” “Zhengyuan”, in 2018, there was no drama with a rating exceeding 2%.

But in 2019, although there were no dramas with ratings exceeding 2% throughout the year, dramas with ratings exceeding 1% increased from 15 to 45, a growth rate of 200%. By 2020, the number of dramas with ratings exceeding 1% will soar to 78. Are 2020 dramas really so popular than the previous two years?

The following are the specific ratings of the top 10 dramas in 2018, 2019 and 2020. The highest-rated “Mr. Love” in 2018 and the highest-rated “Da Ming Fenghua” in 2019 will not be ranked in the TOP10 in 2020. Among the top ten TV series in 2020, many TV series are almost “check” No such play”.

In the Douban Group “Rating Rate Research Center”, Dou friends rank provincial satellite TV CSM ratings every year, but this year they no longer use CSM ratings as the standard and start to use China’s audiovisual big data(CVB). As early as 2019, there have been countless netizens who care about data shaking their heads and sighing on Douban, Tieba, and various forums, “It’s flooding.”

Looking back at 2018, Guo Jingyu raised his arms. Many people in the industry are still very excited, thinking that the era of fraudulent ratings is over. Unexpectedly, two years later, the ratings inflation has become more seriousUp. The entire industry has fallen into a strange circle: the new drama is online, and the film party sends a report with 2% of the ratings data → fans are passionate → the industry is dismissive, but when their own drama is going to star, they are forced to join the ranks of buying ratings. .

In just a few years, CSM ratings have become a tool for self-interest in the industry. The worse the inflation, the more ridiculous the industry. What is even more frightening is that this inflation phenomenon will continue for a long time, far from the day when it blows through.

Douban score: In 2020, the number of 7-point dramas will increase by 44%, and the number of 8-point dramas will double

After sorting out thousands of episodes with more than 10,000 Douban ratings in the past five years, Entertainment Capital found that, like the ratings, the changes in Douban ratings for domestic dramas in the past five years have also shown the same trend: in 2018 It fell to the bottom in the year and then rose almost straight up.

Is it because of the increase in the production of TV dramas, which caused the increase in the number of high score dramas? it’s not true. According to the “China TV/Web Drama Industry Report (2020)”, in 2018, there were 452 domestically produced dramas in Shanghai, and in 2019, there were 377 domestically produced dramas in Shanghai, and the total number of dramas in Shanghai was down 16.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 75. .

It seems that domestic dramas are developing in the direction of “reducing volume and improving quality”. But after counting the dramas with TOP10 ratings on Douban and the dramas with TOP10 ratings in the past three years, Entertainment Capital found that things are far less simple.single.

The following are the TOP10 plays rated by Douban in the past three years. From 2018 to 2020, the average score of TOP10 domestic dramas increased from 8 to 8.8. But looking at specific dramas, the improvement in the quality of the audience’s somatosensory dramas is not as obvious as the changes in Douban’s ratings.

Compared with the “inflation” of Douban scores caused by the increase in the quality of dramas, it is more likely that the influx of water forces has raised the overall water level of ratings for domestic dramas. According to the statistics of Entertainment Capital, in the TOP100 list of domestic drama Douban scorers in the past five years, 33 dramas were broadcast in 2020, and 22 dramas were broadcast in 2019. This is obviously not in line with common sense. The number of ratings for old dramas should accumulate over time. Why is it that the number of ratings for the dramas just broadcast in 2020 is the largest?

If the scope is narrowed to the TOP20 scores of domestic dramas in the past five years, the phenomenon of “the number of scores on Douban will increase sharply in 2020” will become more obvious. As shown in the figure below, only 6 of the TOP20 domestic dramas in Douban scored in the past five years were from 2018 and before. In 2019, the number of “Chen Qing Ling” scores reached 1.48 million, far exceeding the second place.

The growth of the fan base is the direct cause of the soaring number of Douban ratings. Some Douban users posted that before the 227 incident, the number of Douban scorers for “Chen Qingling” was only over 700,000, and the Douban of “Qing Yu Nian”