I control my own life.

Editor’s note: This article is from the WeChat public account “Striking Waves Finance” (ID: Jinbubo), author Shen Shuaibo.

01

It’s already in August, it’s already August. Seven months have passed. Halfway through the 2019 race.

There are two very important words for these seven months and for a long period of time in the future, called “local prosperity” and “survival deviation.”

All walks of life have all entered a state of partial prosperity.

New B (byte beat) A (Ali) T (Tencent) advertising revenue continues to rise, coupled with Baidu, the four advertising revenues basically exceed all remaining advertising companies. If we look at the composition of financial statements, then these four technology companies are actually large advertising companies.

In the first half of this year, the overall sales of luxury cars exceeded 1.4 million units, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year. Among them, BMW’s sales in June rose by 20.9% year-on-year, followed by Mercedes-Benz with 344,657 vehicles. However, according to the statistical data of the Association, the sales volume of the domestic narrow passenger vehicle market in the first half of this year was 9.954 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%. One increase and one drop, the gap is huge.

In 2018, the restaurant revenue was 427.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. This growth rate was also maintained in the first half of 2019. The figure is higher than the GDP growth rate. However, according to the “China Food and Beverage Report 2018”, the closing rate of the catering industry is as high as 70%, and the average life expectancy of restaurants is only 508 days. The rate of closed drinks in special-fire tea drinks in the first-tier cities is 55%, the closing rate in second-tier cities is 35%, and that in third-tier cities is 13%, which means that two families in the first-tier cities must close down. However, the company represented by Luckin expanded rapidly and achieved Nasdaq listing in 18 months.

After real estate is frozen, the data (doors, windows, floors, appliances, etc.) bundled with new homes are very worrying. But it brings about the rapid growth of the old house renovation market, and the growth of the whole house customization is also very fierce.

After more than 20 years of prosperous cycles, the Chinese hotel industry has entered a long period of difficult periods of destocking. However, in the first half of 2019, Shangmei Life Group benefited from more than ten years of special research and deep cultivation in the sinking market, achieving ultra-high-speed growth, and its new hotels such as Shangkeyou and Lanou approached 1,000 stores. . This hotel, which started from a small county, is gradually countering.

The recruitment of private VC institutions in the first half of 2019 according to the number of different versionsAccording to both, the approximate fund-raising rate fell by 90%. At the same time, a large amount of funds tend to hedge, and many types of guaranteed-guaranteed wealth management products completed the first half of the year in April and May.

In the second quarter of fiscal year 2019, LVMH Group, one of the world’s largest luxury goods groups, saw sales increase 15% year-on-year to €12.5 billion, with the strongest momentum coming from China. At the same time, a large number of domestic textile mills did not receive orders for autumn and winter this summer. Many cosmetics foundries in Guangzhou have insufficient operating rates. In December 2018, the overall growth of domestic jewelry was only 2.8%

The offline dealers represented by Carrefour are in a slump, but in the summer, Mingchuang’s products have successfully achieved sales, traffic, and brand potential through cooperation with Marvel and the Forbidden City. Pull up. Mingchuang Premium Bangkok Marvel Black Gold Store has set a historical record of 400,000 RMB for daily sales.

This is the song of ice and fire, this is hell and heaven, this is a Normandy landing.

It is very clear that differentiation will continue and it will intensify. Prosperity will continue, but his local characteristics are more obvious.

It can be said that the comprehensive average data of all industries has not been much reference.

You look at cars, restaurants, hotels, clothing, finance, which is not the case?

02

The second keyword is: Survivor bias.

The survivor bias means that when the information is obtained only from survivors (because the dead do not speak), this information may have deviations from the actual situation.

This rule also applies to the financial and commercial sectors. Surviving companies are often seen as “legends” and their practices are being followed. In fact, some may have survived only for accidental reasons.

In more general terms, you and your friends have succeeded in catching up with a goddess. You two are particularly coincidental that every time you see a goddess, you don’t know why you wear blue clothes. This is not the same as wearing blue. Colored clothes can catch up with the goddess.

This is too obvious in China’s business history over the past forty years. Various occasions are filled with absurdly successful speeches and summaries, but they are often wrong.

The truth is, when the general situation leaves, what you do is wrong.

The price of production factors is cyclical, and the price of different elements is different in different cycles. Sustained success comes from a deep understanding of the full factor, the whole market and the long cycle. But most of them sum up the methodology based on the small node they belong to. When luck is good, the summary is just right. But more often, it is wrong.

Too many people understand business and think it is ridiculous to wear blue clothes to catch up with the goddess.

When a period ends, it will not become a node immediately on a certain day.The look of a cycle. He always has a transition period, maybe three years, maybe five years, or even ten years. The worst people are those who enter at the end and think that they are bargain-hunting. They are essentially indifferent to environmental changes and insensitive to commercial smell.

We have reached the point where we must jump out of the survivor bias.

Doing the Internet, thinking that traffic is the core, wrong, efficiency is the essence of the past Internet to defeat others. So many Internet companies immediately exposed the huge lack of efficiency once the traffic dividends were eaten. In the past few years, the development of the good, the first to solve the efficiency problem through organizational restructuring.

Doing retail, thinking that the channel is the core, wrong, in the future only data is the core, technology is re-engineering channels, new channels appear like cell division, and a large number of traditional channels are already vulnerable. Only data is DNA, which is higher than the channel. As Ma Yun said: The future data is oil.

Every industry seems to have a new vocabulary every year. Essentially, it is just in the midst of fluctuations and there is a spread.

We must work hard to fight against our own inertia thinking, set aside the survivors’ deviations, and find the true truth. This is our ticket to the future.

03

The judgment of the longest value comes from the simplest thinking, not the analysis of various bells and whistles.

After 2006, a middle-aged man who made a fortune through speculative futures used various analytical methods to draw a conclusion: copper prices will definitely fall. Almost, he was completely finished.

Why? Is his analysis technique not very clever? No.

It is China’s 20-year real estate cycle that has started. All the wires and all kinds of home appliances need a steady stream of copper. Under such circumstances, how can copper prices fall?

This story is what he told me personally. Now he has once again become the invisible god of the investment community.

So, I always believe that we learn, we observe, to become a more calm, objective, mature, accurate person.

Not a bunch of “skills”, but these techniques don’t have any kernel. So he could not form a complete closed logic. It doesn’t help you, he just makes you look very smart, it’s actually an idiot.

04

When it goes smoothly, I think about one thing every day. What happened to me after the last stage was smooth? Those who are correct are not worth repeating discussions. It is easy to self-expand when they say more, but there must be problems behind those good ones.

If our goal is a huge, huge, high hanging over the head. Then we should not spend a minute more to self-satisfaction.

Discussed with friends late at night: What is the sorrow of entrepreneurs. He said that the sorrow of entrepreneurs is no success.Only grow.

I said that I don’t think so. I think that the fate and sorrow of entrepreneurs is that your thinking logic is replaced by closed-loop logic with the sole purpose of growth. The early stage did have benefits, but one day, you found that growth will come to an end and growth will not bring happiness.

So here are two questions. The first question is what are the core competencies of entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs? There is only one core ability, that is, constantly smashing the ceiling, breaking through a ceiling and entering the next wider sky.

The second problem is that the era of replacing the happiness of happiness with the thrill of growth has been dead end. In the future, entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs also need an ability to feel and understand happiness.

05

The airport at 6 o’clock this morning, in a heavy rain, the plane rushed to the sky. I looked out the window, and I suddenly remembered it. When I was a child, it was such a heavy rain. We rushed into the rain like this. We cheered because the rain at that time had no sorrowful ingredients, because at that time, we were not sad.

Let us once again, fearlessly rushing to the heavy rain.

Let us once again, shouting: I am ordered by me, not by the sky.

I think this is the power that supports the bottom of our hearts.

This is also the real chassis of the Chinese economy.