In the first half of 2019, Poly was not in the top three, or on the road of “Pentium III.”

Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account: Front News, (ID: fengmiannews) , author: Liu Ting, authorized reprint

The top 5 camp of Chinese housing enterprises that had been solidified, under the stirring of the central enterprise Poly Development (600048), added variables.

Recently, Poly released its semi-annual report results, with a contracted sales amount of 252.624 billion yuan, surpassing Sunac China in the middle newspaper node, ranking fourth. At the same time, the gap in sales with the third Evergrande narrowed to 29.2 billion, once again approaching the top three.

At the end of 2017, Song Guangju, chairman of Poly Development, put forward that the goal of “returning to the top three in the next two to three years” seems to be becoming clearer. Under the general trend of non-relaxation of regulation and tightening of financing environment, the central enterprise Baoli seems to play the “anti-tempo” of the cycle and march on the road of “back to three.”

TOP5 variable Poly four times three times

2019 in the first half, Poly is not in the top three, is on the road to “Ben three.”

In 2018, with a gap of 56 billion, it was defeated by Rongchuang, the fifth-ranked Poly. This year, it took the lead in the first year of the year. In January, it led the company with a monthly average of 33.6 billion.

The first-mover advantage has been maintained in the first half of the year. As of June this year, Sunac China achieved contract sales of approximately 214.16 billion yuan in the first half of the year. The gap between the two sides was 9.6 billion yuan from the beginning to the current 38.4 billion.

Poly and Sunac successfully exchanged positions and sat down on Top 4.

When the outside world realized the scale of the rights between Poly and Sunac, Poly had always had only the “top three.”

In the first two months, Poly achieved sales of 67 billion yuan, and Evergrande, which exceeded 64.7 billion yuan, ranked among the top three. Evergrande is not weak. In March, it surpassed the growth rate of 154% from the previous month, and won the accumulated sales of 119.6 billion yuan, regaining the top three.

In April, Evergrande launched a total of 178 billion and 231.5 billion in April and May, surpassing the same period of Poly’s 147.1 billion and 189 billion, and the gap between the two sides further widened to 42.5 billion.

The last battle of the first half, Evergrande slowed down. June sales increased by only 0.4% year-on-year. Poly pursued and chased 281.8 billion Evergrande with a record of 252.6 billion, narrowing the gap to 29.2 billion.

For comparison, at the end of 2018, doubleThe scale of the scale of the scale is 146.5 billion, and Evergrande must lead the two positions of Poly.

TOP5 操戈保利's backhand < p class="img-desc">Data Source: Corporate Announcement, Front News Watch

At this point, Poly achieved a growth rate of 17.33% in the first half of the year, higher than the industry average. According to the data of Kerry, the cumulative performance of TOP100 real estate enterprises increased slightly by 4% in the first half of the year, and the overall growth rate slowed down significantly compared with 2018.

In the first half of the year, Poly’s growth rate was the fastest in the top five camps, surpassing Vanke, Country Garden, Evergrande and Sunac.

Can Poly successfully launch a group chat invitation to Top3 in this round of cyclical competition?

In terms of scale target, Evergrande will achieve a scale of 600 billion this year. If Poly will exceed it, it needs to achieve at least 48% growth. Poly’s growth rate was 31% last year, and it is not difficult to achieve 48% growth this year.

In terms of growth rate, if we maintain last year’s growth, Poly will achieve 530.3 billion sales this year; at 10% last year, Evergrande will achieve 606.4 billion sales this year.

In the current situation, Poly has difficulty in surpassing Evergrande in the top three this year. If both sides keep moving at an average rate, Poly will achieve a total of 689.4 billion next year, and Evergrande’s corresponding data is 667 billion. Guess the projection, Poly is expected to “return to three” next year.

The “reverse shoot” rhythm of central enterprises

Under the contrarian cycle, central enterprises with capital and cost advantages seize the window period and have obvious advantages.

From January to July this year, public information showed that there were 307 times of national real estate regulation and control policies. In terms of financing, the total volume has been reduced, supervision has been strengthened, and credit has tightened. The financing environment for housing enterprises has never been more dangerous.

In 2019, Poly increased its financing and issued a number of low-interest bonds. In the first half of the year, Poly’s capital cost was only 4.99%. On January 21, Poly issued a 1.5 billion yuan 3-year medium-term note with an interest rate of 3.60%, a 17-year low. On March 25, Poly issued $500 million in bonds with a coupon rate of 3.875%.

At present, Poly has built a financing system based on bank credit, equity financing, direct debt financing, and asset securitization. At the end of 2018, Poly accumulated a total of RMB 32.6 billion in equity financing instruments.The debt financing instruments were about 51 billion yuan; the total interest-bearing liabilities were 263.7 billion yuan, of which bank loans accounted for 71% and direct financing accounted for more than 15%.

On August 7, Poly Real Estate submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to open the listing process. In the future, Poly properties will become another set of chips for financing.

Poly’s “anti-beat” performance is not only reflected in the financing of the financial environment, but also in the contrarian.

In the first four months of this year, the financing environment was relaxed compared to 2018, and the housing companies took advantage of the land. According to data from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, in the first four months, 38 cities sold more than 10 billion yuan in the year, and 21 real estate companies took over 10 billion yuan.

In the same period, Poly’s performance in the land market was not warm, and the value of new land in January did not even enter the top 100. According to data from the Kerry Research Center, the value of new land in Poly in the first three months was 10.46 billion, ranking 19th.

Into May, the 23rd document on the prevention of capital violations flowing into real estate was introduced, and the housing enterprises encountered financing “black May”. The total financing of 40 typical listed real estate enterprises monitored by the same policy research institute totaled 36.799 billion yuan. Compared with April, the total financing amount dropped sharply by 52.07%.

And the central enterprises are profitable. At this time, relying on the financing advantage, they attack the city on the land market. In May, Poly added a total of 34.36 billion yuan worth of land, ranking 11. TOP5 操戈保利's backhand < p class="img-desc">Data Source: Cree CRIC, Front News Tabs

In June, the strength of Pauli’s land was not reduced. On the day of June 27th alone, it successively won 5 plots of land in Guangzhou and Hefei. Among them, the premium rate of homestead in Binhu District of Hefei is 53%, and the premium of Changfeng County homestead is 54.54%. As of the end of June, Poly had a development area of ​​76.18 million square meters.

The reporter noted that on the day of the release of the semi-annual report of Poly Development, the Board of Directors passed the “Proposal on Investment Plan for 2019” to adjust the investment plan for 2019 from RMB 270 billion to RMB 290 billion. This also means that in the context of the overall market downturn, Poly will continue to increase investment, in order to return to the top three.