Cooperating with Apple to distribute Apple Card is an important attempt by Goldman Sachs in the personal finance field, but the price to pay is not small, according to Nomura Securities analyst estimates, Apple Card per user With a customer cost of up to $350, Goldman Sachs may take several years to get back.

The recent Apple Card has been open to users, although Goldman Sachs said it is not worried about profitability, and they are more concerned about long-term profits, but Nomura Securities report that Goldman Sachs has been promoting this card from last week without additional charges, similar The advantage of the industry’s lowest interest rate in the card and the need to approve iPhone users’ applications as much as possible, so analyst Carcache believes that Apple Card may face lower returns and higher losses than the industry average.

Carcache Assume that Goldman Sachs needs $350 to get a new Apple Card user, and then break even after four years, but the problem is that the US economy may have stagnated before then.

After expectations of increased loan losses and tighter margins, US bank stocks were hit hard on Wednesday, according to Credit Suisse’s data, after the two-year and 10-year US Treasury yields were upside down, the country usually There will be a 22-month recession. Carcache pointed out that Goldman’s products are “highly sensitive” to bad debt net sales. If the loss reaches about 8%, Goldman Sachs will start to lose money. During the last US recession, the country’s bad debt rate soared in 2008. And in 2010 reached more than 10%.

In addition, Goldman Sachs, as a newcomer to the personal credit sector, has no card issuance experience and historical data on cardholders. According to other data, credit card issuers usually lose the highest value after two years of credit card loans, so Carcache predicts that the bank’s portfolio will face a “super-large headwind” in two years.

Combined with last week’s CNBC report, Nomura Securities’ reminder is not alarmist. CNBC said that Goldman Sachs is absorbing Apple Card customers on a large scale and approving applications from some sub-borrowers, which has raised concerns about the risks borne by Goldman Sachs.

Analysts believe that once the recession cycle comes, Goldman’s losses may fall to credit card compensation agencies such as Capital One and Discovery Financial.

Apple’s choice of cooperation with Goldman Sachs originally made the industry more unexpected. After all, Goldman Sachs is an investment bank with little involvement in personal finance. However, according to CNBC In May of this year, Apple’s first choice was actually Citibank, which has been deeply rooted in the credit card field. The negotiations between the two companies went smoothly, but Citi’s I was troubled by the profit from the Apple Card and eventually withdrew from cooperation.

▲ Image from: Apple

Citi’s fears come from Apple Card’s no charge, software reminder repayments to help avoid overdue interest, etc. After all, credit card interest is a big source of income for the bank. In 2018, American consumers spend as much money on this. With $113 billion, “the new financial technology concept of zero cost and transparent pricing will lead to a smaller profit margin,” CNBC wrote.

The Apple Card is a honey or arsenic for Goldman Sachs and can only wait for an answer.

The title map is from: VIX