First-tier cities have continued a stable situation.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account:Shell study hospital, (ID: gh_44da0ccc8400) , author: Xu Yue, authorized reprint
On August 15th, the July price and sales data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the price increase of new houses in first-tier cities increased slightly. The increase in second-hand housing prices in second-tier cities slightly expanded, and the sales of new homes continued to decline. What does this indicate? How will the market go in the second half of the year? In this regard, Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, believes that:
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“One city, one policy” control effect achieved
Under the continuous implementation of the “one city, one policy” policy, the market has gradually slowed down, house prices have remained stable and volatility, and regulation has achieved good results.
Overall, the price increase of 70 cities has remained stable. Among them, the price increase of new houses and second-hand houses in first-tier cities in the past three months remained within 0.3%, and the average price fluctuated slightly. The price increase of new homes and second-hand houses in second-tier cities also remained stable. In July, the price of new homes rose by 1 percentage point from June, and the increase of second-hand prices was 1 percentage point higher than that in June. In the third-tier cities, the price increase of new and second-hand houses in July was the same as that of the previous month.
In the steady state of the policy, the price increase of the city where the housing price rose faster in the previous period fell. For example, in Hohhot, Kunming, Xi’an, Hangzhou, Dalian, Changchun and Shenyang, the price increase of new homes in July fell by 1.0.2, 0.3, 0.6, 0.2, 1.1 and 0.4 percentage points respectively from June, and the price of second-hand houses rose in July. In June, it dropped by 0.6, 0.2, 0.5, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively.
A small number of cities with large increases in housing prices are generally small in size and have little impact on the overall market. Judging from the increase in the price of new homes and second-hand houses in July, among the 12 cities with new house prices rising more than 1%, there are 5 third-tier cities, 2 southwest provincial capital cities, and 7 cities with second-hand house prices rising more than 1%. There are three third-tier cities, which are small in size and have a weak influence on overall housing prices.