More to strengthen the management of the mortgage

Editor’s note: This article is from the micro-channel public number “of sound Securities Daily” (ID: securitiesdaily), Author: Securities Daily.

Since the beginning of this year, in response to the spread of “virtual fire” in the property market, such as “new wave”, “10,000 people shaking”, “second-hand housing price jump”, “foreign auction house heating up” and other property market “virtual fires”, overwhelming hot city property market regulation policies have been implemented one after another. Up to now, many real estate control measures have been introduced one after another in more than one hundred times. In terms of specific content, upgrading purchase restrictions, increasing land supply, strengthening mortgage management, and fighting market chaos have become keywords.

A number of experts interviewed by a reporter from the Securities Daily believe that the purpose of the property market regulation is to realize “households without speculation” and let the house return to its own residential function.

Regulations continue to upgrade and reduce “virtual fire”

Since the beginning of this year, the property market regulation policies in many places have not only increased layer by layer, but also extended from first-tier cities to second-tier and third-tier cities. For example, on April 5, Hefei City introduced a new property market policy to deepen housing purchase restrictions.

Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that the purchase restriction is a more commonly used transaction restriction measure in the implementation of the long-term real estate mechanism, which plays a “deceleration belt” in the operation of the real estate market. Quickly reverse the market expectations in some overheated areas, effectively curb the demand for speculative investment in housing purchases, and at the same time protect the first set of housing buyers who just need it.

To be more specific, this time Hefei proposed to suspend the use of designated schools in Binhu New Area, Government Affairs and Culture New District, High-tech Industrial Development Zone, and other areas of the city’s registered households with 2 or more houses within the urban area. Purchase second-hand housing within the school district; at the same time, suspend the sale of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing within the urban area to legal persons and unincorporated organizations (except for approved talent apartments and key investment projects); in addition, through judicial auctions or bidding Any commercial housing acquired by the center through public auctions within the urban area shall comply with the housing purchase restriction policy of this Municipality and be set as bidding conditions.

In fact, it is not just Hefei. Looking at the content of property market regulation introduced in many hot cities this year, the strengthening of housing purchase restrictions is not only placed in a more prominent position, but the expansion of purchase restrictions is also related to “restricted sales”, etc. Measures are used in conjunction with each other.

For example, for Hangzhou, which has repeatedly occupied the hot search list for property market regulation this year, the “Notice on Further Regulating the Order of the Real Estate Market” issued in early March provides for participation in judicial auctions of housing within the city’s restricted housing purchases Bidders must comply with the city’s housing purchase restriction policy; for example, on March 30, Xi’an issued the “Notice on Establishing a Real Estate Linkage Mechanism to Promote the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market” to further extend the coverage of restricted housing purchases to the new Citizens and rigid-need groups, at the same time, cooperated with extending the time limit for sales.

Xu XiaoLe believes that the expansion of the coverage of purchase restrictions can be said to be the inevitable result of the deepening and perfecting of the property market. That is, after the purchase of new houses is restricted, the investment and speculative capital in the market will begin to flood into the blank areas previously regulated by the property market, such as second-hand houses and foreclosed houses. The types of purchase restrictions will expand from new houses to second-hand houses and foreclosed houses. It can undoubtedly plug the loopholes in this part of the policy to maintain and promote the regulation trend of the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

Only from the perspective of property market regulation, there is nothing trivial about the purchase restriction, especially some of the restrictions that may exist.

Taking the “Several Policies and Measures to Promote the Stable and Healthy Development of the City’s Real Estate Market” issued by Nanchang City on March 24 as an example, “promote the process of sharing the right to purchase houses for residents of the greater Nanchang metropolitan area” and change the single “limiting housing prices and bidding land prices” Contents such as land transfer methods are regarded as loosening restrictions on purchases. It is reported that the release of the policy was suspended just one day. At the same time, the Jiangxi Provincial Government interviewed the main responsible comrades of the Nanchang Municipal Government and ordered Nanchang to immediately correct, eliminate the negative impact, and ensure market stability. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has also sent a supervision team to Nanchang City for on-site supervision. According to the reporter’s understanding, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has included Nanchang in the list of key cities for real estate market monitoring and has strengthened its supervision and management of the real estate market in Nanchang.

Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, told a reporter from Securities Daily that the demand-side purchase restriction policy is an important part of real estate regulation. Once the purchase restriction gates in hot cities are released, it will inevitably lead to short-term reality. A large proportion of the number of house purchases has increased, and the market’s shortage of demand will promote an irrational rise in house prices, which will quickly affect the steady development of the real estate market.

In Zhang Bo’s view, the current purchase restriction policy is already tight in the first-tier and second-tier hot cities. It is expected that the future purchase restriction policy will be implemented at the “patching” level, and some overheated third-tier cities may also be further implemented. Strengthen the purchase restriction policy. In general, the market effect of the property purchase restriction policy has begun to appear.

Opening the gate of land supply to cool the property market

In order to effectively alleviate the contradiction between housing supply and demand and to cool down the “high fever” property market, increasing the supply of residential land has become a “guest” in the regulation and control policies of the property market in many places.

For example, in order to meet the rigid needs of residents and the demand for improved housing and stabilize market expectations, on March 30, the Hefei Municipal Bureau of Natural Resources and Planning announced the “Hefei City 2021 State-owned Construction Land Supply Plan (City Level)”, which shows that This year, Hefei urban residential land plans to supply 660 hectares, of which the residential land supply plan is 600 hectares, accounting for 22.78% of the total plan; the rental housing land (separate) supply plan is 60 hectares.

On March 31, Beijing released this year’s centralized land supply plan and detailed information on the first batch of 30 listed lands. According to the plan, Beijing will announce the sale of commercial residential land in three batches in March, July, and November.announcement. Among them, the first 30 pieces of land were listed, with a total land area of ​​about 1.69 million square meters, a construction scale of about 3.45 million square meters, and a total listed price of over 103.581 billion yuan.

On the same day, the “Suzhou City 2021 State-owned Construction Land and Residential Land Supply Plan” released by the Suzhou Municipal Bureau of Natural Resources and Planning showed that the total state-owned construction land supply plan for Suzhou City (including Wujiang) in 2021 is 2231.7 hectares. Among them, the residential land supply plan is 615.2 hectares, accounting for 27.6% of the total planned (of which 55.9 hectares of leased housing land, 460.8 hectares of commercial housing land, and 98.5 hectares of other land).

Talking about the significance of increasing the scale of housing land supply to cooling the property market, Dong Zhongyun, chief economist of AVIC Securities, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that supply and demand determine prices. To stabilize housing prices in the real estate market, it is necessary to synchronize supply and demand. Start at both ends to promote a balance between supply and demand. Although it is possible to guide housing prices through staged suppression of demand, demand will often not disappear but will only be delayed and concentrated release, which may result in a rapid rise in housing prices. Therefore, on the one hand, it is necessary to restrict speculative house purchases through the combination of monetary policy and property market regulation and highlight the housing attributes; on the other hand, it is necessary to actively increase the supply of land to meet reasonable housing needs. Only by working together on both ends of the supply and demand can the continuous improvement of the supply and demand structure of the property market be promoted.

According to Wind data, since 2017, my country’s 100 large and medium-sized cities have increased the planned construction area of ​​land supply year by year. Corresponding to the housing price performance, the year-on-year increase of the housing price index in 100 cities has slowed down significantly, and the volatility has also been significantly reduced.

Pan Hao, a senior analyst at the Shell Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that first of all, increase the supply of residential land from the total amount and increase the supply of new houses in the market, aiming to solve the housing price caused by the imbalance of supply and demand. Excessive rise, and a series of market irregularities triggered.

“Recently, many localities have introduced regulatory policies, all of which explicitly propose to increase the land market supply during the year. This move on the one hand alleviates the shortage of land markets in hotspot cities and reduces the increase in land prices caused by bidding; On the one hand, it reserves supply for the new house market. It is expected that new supply will gradually enter the market from next year, which will help ease the contradiction between supply and demand in the new house market, thereby stabilizing prices and cooling the property market.” Pan Hao said.

He believes that the introduction of the centralized land supply policy aims to “reduce the impact on market expectations caused by insufficient related information in the process of public land transfer, and correct irregularities such as arbitrariness, fragmentation, and uncertainty in information disclosure. , To prevent market players from not grasping important related information to bring competition.” This move focuses on stabilizing expectations and reducing the irrational rise in market enthusiasm brought about by bidding, thereby stabilizing land prices and housing prices.

In Dong Zhongyun’s view, first of all, the land transfer system and related procedures should be further standardized and optimized, and the supervision of land use should be strengthened. itsSecond, we must continue to implement the “human-land linkage” policy. Local governments should strengthen monitoring and forecasting of the local population structure and personnel flow, combining population and industrial development, rationally formulating and adjusting land supply plans in a timely manner, and reducing land idle and waste. Improve land utilization.

Strengthen mortgage management in many places

Strict supervision of housing-related loans continues under the demand for non-speculation of housing and housing. Following the first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, places including Hefei and Xi’an have also issued documents to strengthen the management of real estate loans.

On April 5, the “Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the City’s Real Estate Market” issued by Hefei City proposed to strengthen the review of the source of personal housing loan down payment funds, the minimum down payment ratio, debt service income ratio, and loan qualifications. Seriously investigate and punish the inflow of operating loans and mortgage loans into the real estate market. Strictly implement the management requirements for the concentration of real estate loans, and the proportion of real estate loans by legal person financial institutions and personal housing loans shall not exceed the upper limit set by the People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission.

The “Notice of the General Office of the Xi’an Municipal People’s Government on Establishing a Real Estate and Land Linkage Mechanism to Promote the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market” stated that all financial institutions should strictly follow the management of real estate loan concentration and prevent illegal operating loans from flowing into the real estate sector. Regulatory agencies require implementation of prudential management policies.

Pan Helin, executive dean and professor of the Institute of Digital Economy of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that the general principle of the real estate market now is to prevent excessive leverage and take a financially prudent attitude to take precautions to prevent real estate. Cyclical price fluctuations have an impact on the financial system. Consumption loans, business loans and other credit funds flow into real estate, which is inconsistent with the general direction of China’s economic development, and will further boost the real estate bubble with high leverage. Especially for business loans, the state currently encourages business operations to implement preferential interest rates for business loans. If funds flow into the property market through low-interest business loans, it goes against the state’s original intention to develop physical industries through business loans.

At the end of March, the General Office of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the General Office of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the General Office of the People’s Bank of China jointly issued the “Notice on Preventing the Illegal Flow of Loans for Business Purposes into the Real Estate Sector” to strictly control the illegal flow of funds into the property market , Proposed to strengthen borrower qualification verification, strengthen credit demand review, strengthen loan term management, strengthen loan collateral management, strengthen post-loan management, strengthen internal bank management, strengthen intermediary management, strengthen collaborative supervision and inspection, and continue to support entities Many specific requirements such as economic development.

“Strengthening housing loan management can stabilize the property market expectations at this stage, prevent excessive leverage, limit real estate prices to a reasonable range, and achieve financial prudence.” Pan Helin said.

In fact, the regulatory authorities have maintained strong penalties for the illegal inflow of funds into the real estate sector. Since the beginning of this year, the Banking and Insurance Regulatory System has issued multiple fines that “credit funds flowed into real estate in violation of regulations.” For example, April 6According to the administrative penalty information of the Lishui Supervision Branch of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank’s Lishui Branch was fined 250,000 yuan due to the inadequate “three inspections” of loans that led to the illegal flow of project loans into the real estate market; Zhejiang Suichang Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. was fined 850,000 yuan for illegal flow of funds into the real estate market.

Although the regulatory authorities have attacked heavily, the illegal flow of credit funds into real estate has not disappeared. In order to strengthen the management of mortgages, what are the areas and departments that will make efforts in the future? Pan Helin said that housing loan management still requires the cooperation of various departments. For example, how to guide banks to track the flow of business loans and how to break through information barriers requires the cooperation of multiple departments. For a loan, once a bank transfer is made, it is difficult for the bank to continue to track the flow of loan funds. Therefore, local governments are required to monitor the flow of operating loan funds at an overall level to combat irregularities.

Strike out to control market chaos

Since the beginning of this year, many places across the country have not slackened their efforts in real estate regulation and control. They have stepped up their efforts to combat chaos in the real estate market. “Fighting market chaos” and “standardizing market order” have become important policies for the regulation and control of the real estate market in many places. One of the contents.

Hefei City proposed to “severely crack down on all kinds of chaos in the real estate market”; Xi’an proposed to “regulate the information release behavior of intermediary agencies”; on March 8, Hainan Province issued the “Hainan Province 2021 Real Estate Market Special Rectification Work “The Plan” proposes “comprehensively clean up and rectify the illegal activities of real estate enterprises and intermediary agencies, and severely crack down on illegal activities such as evading purchase restriction policies, fraudulent purchases, disguised price increases, illegal sales, etc.”; Opinions on the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market” clearly stated that “strictly regulate the operating order of the real estate market”, “strengthen the supervision of real estate development enterprises, sales agency enterprises and real estate brokerage agencies, and carry out special rectification of the real estate market order”.

“Various chaos in the real estate market has existed for a long time, and measures have been introduced in many places to standardize the market order, which further reflects the policy orientation of resolute and strict regulation of the real estate market, which will help to more thoroughly implement the policy of “housing and not speculating” and improve The effect of macro-control on real estate.” Tao Jin, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of the Suning Institute of Finance, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily. “If the above measures are strictly implemented, they will reduce some non-rigid demand for housing purchases and suppress housing prices. , Which is conducive to the stable and reasonable operation of the real estate market.”

Senior U.S. stock investor, Anlancapital executive director Chen Da said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that the pricing of many second-hand houses is determined by the landlord or the market, and the landlord’s pricing is mostly based on the listing price of the same community. The listed prices that the landlord sees are all from the intermediary website. These prices may have moisture, and the listing may not be true. The intermediary has manipulated second-handThe ability and possibility of housing prices, so false housing must be curbed, and it is also a key target.

According to the reporter’s understanding, there are already many places that have established mechanisms for issuing reference prices for second-hand housing transactions. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that from the content of the regulatory policies in various regions, the price of second-hand housing has risen significantly. Most cities are concentrated in areas with strong real estate speculation. Investors gather and price control is conducive to market stability. . From the perspective of market trends, it is expected that the price control of second-hand houses in first- and second-tier cities across the country will become a trend, and more cities may “overweight” the price control of second-hand houses. From the perspective of policy effects, there has been a downward adjustment in the quotations of second-hand housing in cities such as Shenzhen, and it is expected that the recent rise in housing prices will slow down significantly.

The regulatory authorities are also unrelenting in carrying out rectification work and cracking down on the “black sheep” in the real estate market. For example, since the beginning of this year, Haikou City Market Supervision Administration has severely cracked down on chaos in the real estate market. At present, 7 real estate cases have been filed and investigated, and 1 case has been closed with a fine of 988,000 yuan. According to the news released by the Shanghai Real Estate Administration on March 9, Regulating the order of the real estate market, the Shanghai district real estate management, market supervision and urban management law enforcement agencies insisted on the linkage of management and enforcement, strengthened administrative supervision and law enforcement, severely investigated and dealt with a number of violations of laws and regulations, and notified 6 typical cases.

Talking about the next step in purifying the real estate market environment and curbing the growth of chaos, Tao Jin believes that one is the need to increase punishment for violations of laws and regulations and publicly expose typical cases; second, it needs to be formed The normalized monitoring mechanism and institutionalized control methods form a more detailed supervision network to protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers.

“At present, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of second-hand housing, and pay attention to the promotion of real estate by various We-media and various WeChat groups.” Yan Yuejin, director of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, told the Securities Daily The reporter said.