This article is from WeChat official account:Zoom light (ID: guokr233)< span class = "text-remarks">, author: Mahmoud Shu, editor: a Meng, from the title figure: vision China

Producing vaccines, buying vaccines, and administering vaccines are the most anxious things for countries in the post-new crown era.

In the absence of specific drugs, purchasing vaccines has become a top priority for many countries. There have been many disputes surrounding the procurement of new crown vaccines——

In mid-January 2021, when Pfizer (Pfizer) announced the suspension of vaccine delivery, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia sent a joint letter to the European Union, requesting the European Commission to put pressure on Pfizer to ensure the timely delivery of the vaccine[1].

In late March, because less than 30% of the 90 million doses of vaccine scheduled for the first quarter were received, the EU threatened AstraZeneca(AstraZeneca), before delivering the promised quantity to the EU, it will be prohibited from exporting vaccines from the EU to other countries[2] span>. At almost the same time, India suspended the export of AstraZeneca vaccines produced by the Serum Institute of India (SII) to give priority to domestic demand[3]……

However, when all countries are worrying about insufficient vaccines, the United States is in a different situation: The new crown vaccine is about to be surplus, and it will even be wasted.

1. Speed ​​Action

According to statistics from Johns Hopkins University, on March 26, 2020 Eastern Time, the number of new coronavirus infections in the United States has reached 82,404 cases and 1,178 deaths. This means that the United States has become the country with the most cases of new coronavirus infections in the world.

Faced with the raging epidemic, the US federal government launched the “Operation Warp Speed” (Operation Warp Speed) plan in April 2020 to Can make the new crown vaccine come out as soon as possible.

Operation Warp Speed ​​aims to coordinate the Department of Defense (DoD) and the Department of Health and Human Services(HHS), Food and Drug Administration (FDA), US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC), Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Bureau (BARDA) and other departments Action. For manufacturers that are expected to develop a new crown vaccine, the warp action will give a lot of resource tilt.

Like the previous Manhattan Project, around the core goal of “developing a new crown vaccine”, all parties moved quickly.

As of May 2020, 14 candidate vaccines have been selected for the Quick Speed ​​Action Plan, 4 of which have also received huge funding from the Bureau of Advanced Research and Development of Biomedicine. AstraZeneca received US$1.2 billion, Modena’s (Moderna) received more than US$500 million, Johnson & Johnson’s (Johnson & Johnson) also has approximately US$456 million in subsidies[4] .

As a result, the pressure on pharmaceutical companies is naturally much less. The real money of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars has greatly reduced the financial risks caused by the failure of vaccine research and development. The government and taxpayers have done a lot of money, and of course they are not showing good intentions. The high-sponsorship in return is a guarantee for the supply of vaccines by companies.

On August 5, 2020, Johnson & Johnson, which is still in the Phase II clinical trial of the vaccine, announced that once the FDA approves the use of its vaccine, Johnson & Johnson will provide 100 million doses of the vaccine. According to the follow-up agreement, the U.S. government can also purchase an additional 200 million doses of [5]. On August 11, Modena also announced that the U.S. government has received 100 million doses of its new crown vaccine (400 million doses can be purchased in the future). The grant that Modena received from the Bureau of Advanced Biomedical Research and Development has so far been 2.48 billion US dollars(about 17.714 billion yuan) The giant [6].

By mid-December, Pfizer and Modena’s vaccines have received emergency use authorization from the FDA, and vaccination in the United States has been officially launched.

2. Increase in inoculation volume

Biden was sworn in as the new President of the United States on January 20 this year. The following day, the White House issued the “Country Strategies for Coping with the New Crown Pandemic” (hereinafter referred to as ” Strategy”). The “Strategy” lists the government’s measures to promote vaccination: formulating policies to expand the scale of vaccine production and procurement, and purchasing more FDA-approved vaccines, syringes and other materials will be given priority to vaccine manufacturers [7]……

And these measures serve an ultimate goal-to get all Americans vaccinated quickly.

On February 28, 2021, Johnson & Johnson Vaccine obtained an emergency mission from the FDA.Use authorization. Under the combined effect of factors such as the entry of Johnson & Johnson vaccine, the increase in production capacity of Pfizer and Modena, and the increase in vaccination efficiency, the single-day vaccination volume of the new crown vaccine in the United States has rapidly increased.

Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States shows that in March, the number of single-day vaccination in the United States has reached 2 million doses.[8] . In the more than 40 days from the release of the “Strategy” to March 10th, a total of 82 million doses of vaccine have been injected across the United States.[9]. On March 10, local time, Biden announced the purchase of an additional 100 million doses of Johnson & Johnson vaccine [10].

The daily vaccination dose of the new crown vaccine in the United States, the red line is the 7-day average vaccination dose. Figure丨U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (data updated to April 7th)

The large-scale smooth vaccination of the vaccine gave the White House confidence. On March 11, the White House issued a military order: Before May 1, all vaccination restrictions should be lifted so that all American adults can get the vaccine. Furthermore, the United States must return to normal status before July 4th (National Independence Day)[9].

When the situation looked very good, some new worries began to ferment-the vaccination was so fast, the government purchased hundreds of millions of additional doses. Will the U.S. vaccine reserve become surplus?

The New York Times reported that there areGovernment officials predict that by mid-May, vaccine supply will exceed US demand. Vaccine surplus (Looming Glut) is imminent, and it is necessary to formulate a policy response as soon as possible. Because once the vaccine is delivered to the states, federal regulations prohibit the recall of [11]. It is too late to take measures at that time.

How many vaccines does the United States purchase?

Let’s do a simple math problem.

Currently, the FDA has approved the use of three vaccines. Even if the vaccines (such as Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines) that have not been approved for marketing are not included, the number of marketed vaccines ordered in the United States is as high as 8 100 million doses / 500 million servings. Even if all citizens are vaccinated once, there is a margin of more than 100 million doses.

In some areas, there have been too many vaccinations and too few vaccinations.

For example, in late March, Idaho began to experience dissatisfaction with appointments for vaccinations. In order to increase the amount of vaccination, the state government plans to open up vaccination[12] for people 55 years and older in advance.

3. The follow-up journey of vaccines

So, how will these surplus vaccines be handled? At present, there may be several solutions:

First, it can be used with COVAX coordinated to donate the vaccine to countries that need it more.

In April 2020, WHO and many other institutions jointly launched the COVAX(New Coronary Pneumonia Vaccine Implementation Plan) project. This project aims to ensure that every country in the world has fair and reasonable access to vaccines[13]. As of the end of March 2021, the project has distributed more than 32 million doses of vaccine to more than 70 participants[14] .

The Biden administration has a more positive attitude towards COVAX. In January 2021, the United States announced its “membership”, and Biden also pledged to donate US$4 billion[15]. Therefore, the U.S. government may continue to donate funds or vaccines to COVAX.

The second is to resell the vaccine to other countries. On March 20, the White House stated that it will provide approximately 4 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine to Canada and Mexico. In fact, AstraZeneca’s vaccine has not yet been approved by the FDA. The United States actually allocates a small portion of the AstraZeneca vaccines it has ordered to resell it to Canada and Mexico[16]< /span>.

Of course, there may be the worst. As mentioned earlier, when the excess vaccine is delivered to the local area and cannot be recalled, the waste is almost inevitable.

In stark contrast to the “surplus” of vaccines in the United States, the resources for vaccination in economically underdeveloped countries are very scarce.

“The world is on the verge of a catastrophic moral failure-and the price of this failure will be the lives and livelihoods of the world’s poorest countries.” January 18, 2021, WHO Director-General Tan De Serbia has made a very pessimistic statement about the impact of the new crown epidemic.

Before speaking this sentence, Tan Desai gave a set of statistics: at least 49 high-income countries have received more than 39 million doses of vaccine. In one of the lowest-income countries, only 25 doses were injected nationwide. Not 25 million, not 25,000, but only 25 doses(Not 25 million; not 25 thousand; just 25.)[17].

According to Duke University’s Global Health Innovation Center, as of April 2, high-income countries currently hold 4.6 billion doses of vaccine, middle- and high-income countries hold 1.5 billion doses, and low- and middle-income countries hold 591 million doses. , Low-income countries hold 670 million doses of [18]. The global vaccine procurement situation is already very obvious: High-income countries use large-scale purchases to hedge the risk of insufficient vaccine supply, while low-income countries are excluded from vaccine purchases.

The data source of confirmed purchases of new crown vaccines according to national income levels | Duke University Global Health Innovation Center data updated to April 2
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According to data disclosed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of April 5, local time, more than 107 million people in the United States have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, of which more than 62 million have been fully vaccinated. Based on this calculation, the US vaccination rate is about 18.67%, which is the country with the highest vaccination rate in the world after Israel and Chile.

In contrast, China’s cumulative vaccinations totaled 145 million doses, and the number of single-day vaccinations reached 4.4 million doses. (according to the statistics of the past 7 days< sup>[19]), but due to the huge population base, the overall vaccination rate is less than 10%, which is much lower than that of the United Kingdom and the United States.

Which country can complete the vaccination as soon as possible, can form a protective barrier as soon as possible, restore normal life and economic order, and gain a leading position in the next “100 years without major changes”-this is allOne of the important reasons why countries around the world are working hard to vaccinate the new crown vaccine.

On April 6th, Zhong Nanshan called for vaccination to be an inevitable requirement for the subsequent economic opening. There is no need for vaccination and side effects, so we should resolutely vaccinate [20].

As an ordinary Chinese, you might as well go out and get vaccinated to bring a small increase in this number and make some small contributions to historical progress.


[1] Guo Shuang, Li Jizhi, etc.: U.S. and European vaccines are “late”, the multi-country vaccination plan “brakes”. Xinhua International Headline.2021.1.21[

2] Zheng Zhi: The European Union threatens to ban the export of AstraZeneca’s new crown vaccine to countries outside the European Union. CCTV News Client.2021.3.23

[3] Exclusive: India delays big exports of AstraZeneca shot, as infections surge

[4] Vaxart Oral COVID-19 Vaccine Joins Trump’s “Warp Speed,” Ramps Up Manufacturing Capacity /

[5] Johnson & Johnson Announces Agreement with U.S. Government for 100 Million Doses of Investigational COVID-19 Vaccine -19-vaccine

[6] Moderna Announces Supply Agreement with U.S. Government for Initial 100 Million Doses of mRNA Vaccine Against COVID-19 (mRNA-1273)

[7] “Country Strategy for Coping with the New Crown Pandemic” issued by the White House[7]span> -Preparedness.pdf

[8] Vaccination statistics released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

[9] March 11 White House briefing -americans-to-be-eligible-for-vaccinations-by-may-1-puts-the-nation-on-a-path-to-get-closer-to-normal-by-july-4th/

[10] Biden announces plans to purchase 100M more Johnson & Johnson COVID vaccine doses–more-vaccines-jj/10404197/

[11] For Biden,a New Virus Dilemma: How to Handle a Looming Glut of Vaccine

[12] The US is about to reach a surprise milestone: too many vaccines, not enough takers

[13] WHO COVAX project introduction page

[14] Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization COVAX Program Introduction Page

[15] Biden to pledge $4 billion to COVAX vaccine program at G7 meeting Friday

[16] Cohan: U.S. will loan vaccine doses to Canada and Mexico, it’s good to help our neighbors -good-to-help-our-neighbors/

[17] Opening speech by the Director-General of WHO at the 148th session of the Executive Board -the-executive-board

[18] Duke University Global Health Innovation Center “Vaccine Procurement” Research Project

[19] Vaccination status announced by the National Health Commission

[20] Zhao Linan: No need to get the new crown vaccine? Worried about side effects? Zhong Nanshan called for: Resolutely inoculate. Daily EconomyNews. 2021.4.6

This article is from WeChat official account:Zoom light (ID: guokr233), author: Mahmoud Shu, editor: a Meng