A few recent judgments about the real estate industry.

Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account: Real estate and Internet thinking, (ID: fangdichanhulianwang)< / a>, author: room mutual, authorized reprint

On August 16, Ding Zuyu, CEO of Yiju Enterprise Group, gave a speech at the broker innovation summit. Dr. Ding Zuyu brought a few recent judgments on the real estate industry, first to summarize for you:

First, the policy is still in the process of tightening, the first-hand housing transaction is still in the downward channel, the third-fourth line continues to decline, the market has not been fundamentally reversed, and the second-hand housing transaction has declined for three consecutive months, but still in the process. On average last year, it may continue to decline in August.

Second, there may be a round of ups and downs, and big quotes don’t think about it. Cities that have risen too fast before should not think that the policy may be relaxed, such as Xi’an.

Third, urban differentiation may be intensified, and different regions of the same city are also diverging. The more the buyers buy the house itself, the house is used to live, and has been gradually implemented.

Fourth, real estate-related industry concentration is also rising, such as the brokerage industry, the shell system has long exceeded the market share of 20%.

Five, the buying community has changed. After 95, the proportion of purchases of one or two million total price items is increasing, product quality and standards are returning, and the future two-child family is the main group of residential consumption.

The sixth is also the most concerned about the brokerage industry. Channel distribution is the new blue ocean of the real estate industry. Before the first half of 2018, marketing had little effect. Nowadays, sales pressure is getting bigger and bigger, marketing requirements are getting higher and higher, channels are getting higher and higher in marketing, and the market size of channels is 100 billion to 120 billion yuan. The market for second-hand housing commissions is over 100 billion yuan.

The seventh, easy to live PLMS first-hand multi-point distribution service platform, P refers to the first-hand housing, MLS refers to second-hand housing, build a platform to solve the developer’s problems and the problems of channel providers and intermediaries.

Ding Zong This is the first time to publish second-hand housing judgments and analysis in public. These data and judgments are also very interesting.

Details, see the following recorded sections:

Many developer leaders are worried about the current market and other aspects. They have a little bit of ignorance about the future, and a little bit more pessimism. This is the same as the future trend of real estate in March and April. A considerable change has occurred in the judgment.

This year is really interesting. At the beginning of the year, everyone was more pessimistic. The pessimism at the beginning of the year may mean that the entire Chinese real estate industry has to enter a big adjustment period.

But MarchWith the rapid start of real estate, everyone may feel that “spring” is coming again. In May and June, there were some fluctuations in the market. Everyone felt that this was a normal fluctuation. However, in July and August, on the one hand, the policy, on the other hand, the market, under the double blow, now everyone’s feelings are a bit like last year. In the fourth quarter, it was a bit like the feeling at the beginning of the year.

So I haven’t had a full year. The feelings of the whole season of spring, summer, autumn and winter are almost a round of today, and I have already finished the second round. So in the eight months of 2019, real estate gave us too many different feelings.

Don’t look at the latest real estate macro data is still at a high level, but its weakness is also inevitable, not to mention the overall market weakness has gone a quarter. Let’s talk about several parts and explore how to overcome the difficulties.

The current industry pressure has surged

Policy changes

The overall policy at the beginning of this year and now has changed a lot. Although we have not seen very specific regulatory policies introduced from the central level, the relevant policies at the financial level, especially since July and August, Trust, debt issuance, bank loans, and even mortgages, bit by bit, all aspects of the policy environment indicate that the overall market pressure is now huge.

Micro policy. In various urban policies, many cities were relaxing and regulating at the beginning of the year. After May, they were basically 180-degree turns. Taking Suzhou as an example, the two policies were issued continuously, and the means for the original control were strengthened.

2, industry data

Channel Distribution and Intermediary is the 100 billion Blue Ocean - Ding Zuyu's speech at the Summit of the Housing Society

Real estate development investment is still growing at a rate of 10.6%, but this data will turn sharply in the next four months, because the reason why 10.6% is faster is because the land volume is relatively large last year, and currently supports 10.6% of the core. The payment for the land payment is due to the fact that after the land sales last year, the land payment is often delayed for half a year, and the land payment is still driving the growth of the entire real estate development investment, but the growth rate of building development has come down.

In addition, land sales in the first half of this year have dropped by 30% compared with the same period of last year, so the growth rate of real estate development investment in the second half of the year is very pessimistic.

Real estate sales area and sales amount. The sales area decreased slightly, and the sales amount increased slightly. It is also easy to explain, because the decline is mainly due to the decline in the proportion of ordinary third- and fourth-tier cities, and the average price will increase slightly, so the area will decrease and the sales amount will be slightly higher.l, but the last two months have declined to some extent last year, so the market feels bad.

3, specific transaction

New home sales: The July transaction was significantly down, but the so-called high was just above the 2018 average in July compared to the 2018 average. This number is very fast compared to June.

So from the situation of first-hand housing transactions, it is currently in a downward channel. The situation that the third-fourth line continues to go down has not been fundamentally reversed, and the first and second lines are sloppy. In all cities, the first line has been increased from decline to decline, while the second and third and fourth lines have continued to expand. The trend of the decline of most cities in July has already emerged.

Second-hand housing market: three consecutive months of decline, compared with last year’s average line, so the second-hand housing has not yet pulled the alarm, but the continuous decline at least shows that ordinary consumers are relatively optimistic about the future trend. It has begun to slowly optimistic, wait and see, and although there is no pessimism, there has been a certain wait-and-see attitude.

So I think second-hand housing is also the market’s leading indicator. It is still in the downside, and will continue to go down in August. September is a very important month, so we should pay attention to the overall market in September. Data situation.

The important thing is the core city, 15 key cities, the first 50 cities in the first-hand house accounted for 2/3 market share, and the first 15 cities in second-hand houses accounted for almost 2/3 of the market share, so the second-hand housing looks More than a dozen cities are fine, basically green. Therefore, the turnover of second-hand housing in urban cities has also declined.

Land market: transactions fell in the three months of May, June and July.

There are three major indicators, 5, 6, and 7 all falling. Originally, I saw more first-hand houses, but today I saw all the three indicators of first-hand, second-hand and land decline. In the past five years, the decline in all of the five, six, and seven months has rarely occurred.

The decline in the land market indicates that development companies are also waiting to see the future. Affecting the investment in the land market, there is also a funding surface. After the land investment is reduced, it proves that the capital chain is tightening. This is also a very clear signal.

For development companies, the capital chain is tightening, the first-hand housing is not active now, and it is starting to decline. The buyers and sellers of second-hand houses are now starting to wait and see, so the entire real estate market, there is no need to hold any so-called blindness. Optimistic, there should be a very cautious attitude towards the overall market.

Channel Distribution and Intermediary is 100 billion Blue Oceans - Ding Zuyu's speech at the Summit of the Housing Society

MarketHeat: financing situation, the land transaction situation premium rate dropped very fast, the premium rate down indicates that the development company’s judgment on the overall future market trend has changed a lot.

I have been chatting with a lot of development companies recently. I said that you will go to grab land in March and April. The premium will be grabbed again. Now there is no premium when you take the land in August and July. Instead, you dare to take it. what happened? The stock market has chased up and down, and the local market has also chased up and down. Both feel that land prices will fall again.

The overall land market premium rate may be further reduced. Of course, compared with the same period of last year, the land market started to go down from June last year. In July, many land auctions began to appear. The shot reached a relatively high point. The auction situation this year is not obvious, but the premium down in July is already very obvious. In August, basically a lot of land was taken at the reserve price, and the flow seems to have not been seen. Therefore, I personally think that there is still room for downside in the current land market.

The market is in urgent need of survival

Although we have to look at the current real estate market with relative caution, there is no need for the mid- and long-term pessimism in the real estate market. If we eat this bowl of rice in the common real estate industry, if we lose confidence in the future of real estate today, I feel that there is no need to open such a meeting today, and there is no need to meet the future. I should find more opportunities in this. Where are these opportunities? Many changes have given us the opportunity.

Short-term market

This year’s volatility is very large. The first 8 months have fluctuated a lot. In the next 4 months, it will continue to fluctuate. Maybe there will be a round of small upswings, but big market everyone should not think, small market may still existing.

Urban differentiation will be further exacerbated.

The three major market data still need to pay attention to the indicators of second-hand housing, which I think is a leading indicator. If the second-hand housing can be stabilized first, there may be some adjustments in the first-hand housing and land market, so the last four months of this year is very crucial, and even in the four months, there will be a small round.

Regulatory Policy

Channel Distribution and Intermediary is the 100 billion Blue Ocean - Ding Zuyu's speech at the Summit of the Housing Society

First of all, the policy side should not hold the hope of policy adjustment for cities with rising house prices. Listed in the top 20 cities, the relative increase in the past year, the 20th year increased by 12.2%, the first place increased by 25%, the first place is Xi’an.

All the price limits in Xi’an today will not be loose, because they have already put thisAfter two years of rising house prices, all the price cuts will only become tighter. These 20 cities, with stable prices, stable housing prices, and stable expectations, must be based on stability and will not be too loose. Because house prices are the most important key indicator affecting today’s regulatory policies.

So the policy will not be tighter and there will be no greater relaxation in the short term. If the economic data at the end of the third quarter is still not optimistic, I think the capital chain may be slightly relaxed.

Funding environment

There is a significant tightening in the short-term, and all the leaders have expressed their control over real estate. However, once the real estate control is overdone, the land can’t be sold, and the auction has taken place. The overall market turnover has declined, and the growth rate of real estate development investment has dropped significantly. Perhaps the entire control will slow down.

The average interest rate has started to pick up after a long-term downturn. Some banks in some cities have also stopped lending to mortgages, but this is not national.

Intensified urban differentiation

There is a very strange situation. Everyone understands that the differentiation of the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 4th tier cities, the differentiation of the urban and non-urban circles, everyone understands, I personally think that in addition to the non-city circle, the third- and fourth-tier cities Not too optimistic, the rest of the city thinks that there is no problem in the medium term.

But another differentiation is that there is a big differentiation within the city. The same area also sells well and sells badly. Even the same real estate has sold well and sold poorly. This situation is now appearing in all directions. It indicates that the house is used for living and not for speculation. After four years of continuous reinforcement, the current buyers are actually used to live instead of speculation. At this time, they will pay attention to the house itself, so they will be in the same A large division has occurred in one project.

Now everyone can see that they can sell 40% and 50%. Everyone feels very good. In the past, they didn’t sell 70% and 80%. They all felt that the opening failed, and in the first- and second-tier cities, many third-tier cities went. Renewing customers and waiting for it, 40% of the first opening is very difficult to do, so many companies now adopt multiple opening strategies, not waiting for customers who have to renew 1000, 2000 to reopen, and continue to renew their dissatisfaction.

So such a differentiation is also very different from what happened in the past year. In the past few years, a city is good, and a city is poor. Now even Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, even Hangzhou. In Nanjing, there have been good and bad projects.

Concentration is increasing

A concentration is understood by everyone, that is, the concentration of housing enterprises is rising, and the current top 30 rights have already accounted for 40% of the entire industry.

The second concentration is particularly remarkable this year, that is, the concentration of cities is rising rapidly. The top 50 cities account for 32% of the permanent population in China, with real estate investment accounting for 62% and sales area accounting for 46%. Cities account for two-thirds of the market. So today’s so-called era of a large number of 3, 4, 6, and 6 citiesGoing, I was able to hold the top 50 cities and defended most of China.

In retrospect, there is also a negative situation where land prices in these cities are relatively high and land resources are relatively scarce. However, the future population, industry, and investment will be more concentrated in these cities, and second-hand houses will be more concentrated than first-hand houses.

The concentration of related industries is also rising, and the concentration of the brokerage industry is very high. The first place is shells, which has already exceeded 20% market share. The agency industry is not so high, but the second-hand housing industry has this. high. Of course, the upward trend of the concentration of the agency industry in the past two years is also very obvious.

The concentration of property industry is also very obvious. Vanke Property has spent 10 years from the management area of ​​50 million square meters to the management area of ​​500 million square meters. The growth rate in the last five years is faster. I participated in the World Trade Organization two days ago. The property was renamed as World Trade Service. The management area of ​​100 million square meters this year, the management area of ​​200 million square meters next year, and the management area of ​​300 million square meters in the next year, the development enterprises will not achieve such rapid growth. Today the property industry is so fast. The driving force for growth.

So with the continuous increase in the concentration of housing in the past four years, today’s growth in upstream and downstream concentration is just the right time. If today’s intermediary industry and brokerage industry need to increase their concentration quickly, it’s three years, three. After the year, the basic seat will be clear.

Product Force Upgrade

Before 2018, 2016-2018, due to price limit reasons, the product should not be upgraded, it would be good if it is not downgraded. The so-called downgrade is a general situation, after the price limit, what houses are sold.

But since the second half of last year, the products have returned. On the one hand, the quality and standards of the products have returned. On the other hand, due to changes in the customer level and changes in the group, today’s adaptive houses have also emerged. After the 95s, the second-child family continued to grow, and the proportion of purchases continued to increase. The products that they created for them also appeared today.

Of course, there are still many trends, such as the trend of miniaturization of three-bedroom products; such as the total transaction price of the set of flats has dropped significantly; such as the rapid growth of the post-95 group in the high-end residential buildings of 12 to 20 million in today’s luxury homes, all make us today For the apartment type, there are some new changes to the whole product.

Two children. In 2017, the number of births of two children reached 8.83 million, and the number of children was only 7.22 million. One child fell rapidly and the two children quickly increased. The purchase rate of the two-child family is three times that of a one-child family. Today, we will seize these two-child families and there will be seven or eight million two-child families every year. These families are the main group in China’s mainstream consumption today. Is the main group. Among the main groups is also the main group of residential consumption, especially for residential improvement. After 95, the proportion of home purchases is very high. Here are the projects with a total price of more than 120 million.

Channel distribution and agency is 100 billion blue sea - Ding Zuyu in the roomThe full text of the mutual summit speech

Channel distribution is the new blue ocean

Today, we must bring development companies to our camp. Today we have to let the intermediaries be united. Today, our intermediary brokerage industry can be united, and both upstream and downstream can be united. There must always be a grasper. .

Everyone should not engage in such vicious competition, and development companies also cooperate. Development companies have become a consensus in the process of acquiring land today, and the brokerage industry is not in harmony with each other, competing with each other, and pressing each other down. Between each other, the second-hand house has the competition of second-hand houses. There are still fights in the first-hand house. There is also competition in the first-hand house. There are also many fights. The fights are all superficial. In order to take a plate, the commission is reduced to five thousand and thousand. In four, three-thousandths, or even two-thousandths of a second, the industry will be over.

The intermediary industry is not united and uncooperative at this time. There is no future. There is really no future. At this point we can at least do some cooperation.

The 15 trillion first-hand housing market can be maintained for a long time, and the 6 trillion second-hand housing market can be maintained for a long time. The overall industry size of China’s 21 trillion is still there. The size of such a large industry is actually enough for our practitioners in this industry to work together. There is no need for vicious competition, cooperation and interaction are our future.

Channel Distribution and Intermediary is 100 billion Blue Oceans - Ding Zuyu's speech at the Summit of the Housing Society

Marketing is now re-emerged in the industry. The marketing role was not great before the first half of 2018. At that time, I talked to you about these things and talked about it, and the development companies did not need us.

Today’s sales are getting more and more difficult, and the pressure is getting bigger and bigger. The marketing conditions given by the development companies may be getting higher and better, and the channels are getting higher and higher in marketing. Today may be Channels accounted for 15% to 20% in 2018 to 20% to 25% today, and may eventually stabilize at around 30%; the proportion of agents reached a historical low last year, probably less than 40%, but this year the overall agent rebound rate Relatively fast. So today’s marketing itself has begun to show the role of housing companies, developers, and projects.

Channels, how much can the industry share reach? Assume that according to 30% calculation, 4.5The trillion market will eventually be completed by channels. If measured at a commission rate of 2.5% to 3%, this is a market of 100 billion to 120 billion.

Channel Distribution and Intermediary is the 100 billion Blue Ocean - Ding Zuyu's speech at the Summit of the Housing Society

What concept? Back to second-hand housing, second-hand housing is today’s 6 trillion market, of which 5 trillion is completed through intermediaries, and 2% commission is 100 billion yuan.

The channel market is the same as the total size of the second-hand house in the brokerage market today. This market was ignored two years ago. It was not ignored by us two years ago, but the market has not yet had such a large demand, but This year, I believe that including the shell to find a house can also see clearly, we also see clearly, many of the peers have seen, everyone has seen the rapid start of such a market, the four or five trillion market is actually enough to participate in everyone, is also a 1000 More than 100 million commission market.

The intermediary industry is enough for so many people, the channel is more than enough, and everyone builds a better platform.

We propose PMLS. Everyone in MLS is too familiar with it. It is a multi-point listing service platform for second-hand houses in the United States. P is a first-hand house. We propose the concept of a multi-point distribution service platform for first-hand houses, which is to solve the problems of developers and the problems of channel providers and intermediaries. The upstream and downstream should be solved, and then enter a better platform to serve the development of enterprises, service all intermediary channel companies, and finally solve the problem of developers’ non-standard and opaque, solve the problem that developers think the channel is inefficient, and solve the problem. The developer cost problem also solves the problem that the channel intermediary is difficult to get back, solves the problem of information asymmetry, and solves the problem of low efficiency in the industry. Through this platform, it can finally solve the problem together.

Easy has also done a lot of preparations in this area, the warm-up has been completed, the journey of running the marathon has started in full, running (P) horse (M) pull (L) pine (S), this running marathon needs us all The industry participates together, everyone can run together to run longer, to run more stable, to run better, to make the Chinese real estate industry better and better, and to make our brokerage industry better and better.