If you are born with “Di”, how can you be born with “Ning”?

From the time when Zeng Yuqun became the new richest man in Hong Kong with a net worth of 34.5 billion US dollars, the controversy over the Ningde era has never ceased.

On May 19th, CATL had a large transaction of 850 million yuan at a transaction price of 340 yuan, a discount of about 9% from the closing price of the day. Since 2020, the stock price of CATL has been running wildly, and it has doubled 3.5 times in just one year. By 2021, CATL’s highest market value will reach 980 billion yuan.

Looking back at the past history of the Ningde era, in 2017, China’s new energy vehicle sales reached 770,000 units, an increase of 53% year-on-year, and it was the world’s largest sales volume for three consecutive years. The expansion of the scale of domestic new energy vehicles directly provides the Ningde era with unlimited possibilities. It is also in 2017 that the Ningde era surpassed Panasonic of Japan and became the world’s largest power battery manufacturer.

In June 2018, CATL was successfully listed. From a certain point of view, the success of the Ningde era cannot be separated from the lucky blessings of the times, especially in recent years, the domestic new energy car building forces are in full swing, and the Ningde era is like a star holding the moon.

But on the other hand, the voices of the outside world are becoming more and more enthusiastic about the Ningde era. In March 2020, BYD released the blade battery. At the press conference, BYD played a comparison video of the blade battery and the ternary lithium battery acupuncture test. In one fell swoop, the battery safety of the Ningde era was brought to the forefront of public opinion.

At the same time, major car companies have also staged battery “involutions”. Volkswagen invested in Guoxuan, Mercedes-Benz invested in Funeng, Weilai launched solid-state batteries, and Tesla selected LG Chem as the exclusive battery supplier… There are various signs that the Ningde era is undergoing a major change, and the future is sad or happy, elusive.

Since “Di” is born, how can “Ning” be born?

As the leader and second child of domestic power battery installed capacity, CATL and BYD have always been in a tit-for-tat, incompatible state. In March last year, BYD’s comparative experiment at the press conference further pushed the relationship between the two. To freezing point.

Maybe few people know that BYD is the pioneer in the field of power batteries in China compared to the Ningde era. In 1995, Wang Chuanfu established the first nickel-cadmium battery production line. With the popularization of smart phones, BYD’s sales of various batteries are leading the world.

Before the establishment of CATL, BYD officially entered the automotive field in 2010. According to public information, in 2009, the country launched a new energy vehicle demonstration and promotion project. In 2010, BYD’s E6 became the first new energy rental car in Shenzhen. Since then, it has also set foot in public transportation and produced electric buses.

Until 2011, CATL was established. At first, the Ningde era did not haveDi’s ability to contend, but the turning point was in the following years. Some people have always said that the Ningde era is the “darling” of fate. From a certain perspective, this evaluation is indeed understandable. Many car companies are the “nobles” of the Ningde era on the road to dominance.

The most worth mentioning is BMW. In 2012, BMW Brilliance, BMW Brilliance and CATL decided to cooperate on the high-voltage battery project of the new energy vehicle brand and product Zino 1E planned by BMW Brilliance. It is precisely because of this cooperation that CATL becomes the only battery supplier for BMW in the domestic market.

Frankly speaking, getting favored by BMW is the biggest foreshadowing of Ningde era in catching up with BYD in the future. It is reported that before 2015, BYD had an excellent voice in the industry in terms of battery technology and sales of new energy vehicles. Unfortunately, at the beginning of the new energy vehicle subsidy dividend, BYD did not consider the future of batteries. Hope to put it on other car companies, but choose self-produced and self-sold.

This gave the Ningde era an excellent opportunity to overtake. What’s more, before that, the Ningde era already had the natural brand “backer” of BMW. In 2017, CATL reached a cooperation with SAIC. Subsequently, many traditional car companies such as Changan, Geely, and Guangzhou Automobile have also thrown olive branches to CATL.

In 2017, CATL had 74 customers, and by 2019 this number has risen to 120.

It was also in 2017 that CATL surpassed BYD for the first time, and has dominated the power battery field ever since. According to data from related research institutions, in the first half of 2017, the installed capacity of CATL’s electric vehicle battery was 1312.4MWh, and its share of the domestic power battery market reached 20.98%. The installed capacity of BYD’s electric vehicle battery is 1084.9MWh, with a market share of 17.35%.

Perhaps because of unwillingness, after being overtaken by the Ningde era, BYD has taken a different approach, biting the technical battle. After the comparative experiment, Zeng Yuqun said that battery safety and battery abuse testing are two different things, causing BYD Li Yunfei to choke: “Isn’t it? Then you can do it too!”.

How persistent is BYD in technology? According to the “List of Top 20 New Energy Vehicle Patent Companies”, BYD ranks first among the top two top technology companies, with the number of patents reaching 4368 and 3997 respectively;The field of design patents is also among the top three. In terms of the most innovative invention patents, BYD has 4368 patents, exceeding the total number of invention patents 2-7.

Since Sheng Yu, He Shengliang. Interestingly, in the first quarter of 2020, LG Chem ranked first with a market share of 27.1%, ending the Ningde era’s record of ranking first for three consecutive years. CATL ranks third with a market share of 17.4%, and BYD has fallen from third last year to sixth. I am afraid that neither of the two have anticipated the dramatic turning point.

Battery troubles in the Ningde era

In May 2020, a news of the spontaneous combustion of GAC New Energy Aion S spread on major social media.

Although all parties have not clearly given the absolute reason for the auto-ignition of the car, the contradiction still points to the Ningde era 811 high-nickel ternary battery. Public information shows that lithium nickel cobalt manganate or lithium nickel cobalt aluminate is used as the cathode material for ternary lithium batteries, but it is worth noting that the higher the specific gravity of the highly active nickel element, the worse the thermal stability of the cathode material.

According to media statistics, from March 2019 to December last year, there were 36 spontaneous combustion accidents in domestic electric vehicles, of which 33 were accidental vehicles, all of which were equipped with ternary lithium batteries. 811 high nickel ternary battery, as the most active nickel element, has naturally become a target of public opinion.

In September 2020, a rumor from Ningde Times completely pushed the topic of 811 high nickel ternary battery to its peak. It is reported that there are rumors that due to the questioning of safety, CATL will abandon the 811 battery and turn to the key development of 523. Due to the popularity of 811 in the world, CATL’s stock price fluctuated significantly. In just two days, the cumulative market value loss exceeded 40 billion yuan.

Nowadays, the discussion of ternary lithium batteries is getting higher and higher, and there are endless speculations about whether the Ningde era will shift the internal center. On the one hand, high nickel is currently one of the main battery technologies for electric vehicles, and it is also the focus of competition among major brands.

It is reported that in March 2020, LG Chem and Pohang Chemical signed a supply contract to purchase 125,000 tons of high nickel cathode materials worth 1.6 billion US dollars to enhance the market competitiveness of high nickel batteries; Panasonic The “2170” battery supplied to Tesla is also a highly nickelized battery, and Panasonic has publicly stated that it will increase the energy density of the battery by another 20% within 5 years.

But on the other hand, some people are not optimistic about the continued development of ternary lithium batteries such as the 811 battery in the Ningde era. After the decline of new energy subsidies, domestic car manufacturers have to improve their cost control. Compared with ternary lithium batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries can directly reduce the cost of car companies, especially Tesla’s price “butcher”. Last year, some media said that Weilai had already covered a piece of iron phosphate in the Ningde era. Lithium battery production line.

Currently 20% of Xiaopeng Motor’s P7 ordersAnd 10% of G3 orders come from models with lithium iron phosphate battery versions. In addition, with more and more charging piles, the endurance demand of electric vehicles in the future will be much lower than before.

In the first 11 months of 2019, my country’s power battery output fell by 13.8% year-on-year, but the cumulative output of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 28.0GWh, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year. In 2020, my country’s power battery sales volume was 65.9GWh, of which ternary lithium batteries were 34.8GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 34.4%, while lithium iron phosphate batteries were 30.8GWh, a year-on-year increase of 49.2%. The troubles of the Ningde era are obvious.

The “Battered on All Sides” of the Ningde Era

In 2019, Li Xiang said in an interview: The way car companies want to cooperate with Ningde Times is often that the chairman queues up to them for batteries. For a long time, the supply of batteries in the Ningde era was in short supply. There was a report that Xiaopeng Motors had to go to Ningde for a week in order to get the goods from the Ningde era.

When the Ningde era was in full swing, the three domestic car builders were ridiculed by the media as “workers” in the Ningde era. In 2020, the installed capacity of the Ningde era accounted for 100% of NIO’s supply and 83.1% of Xiaopeng’s. , The ideal 70.07%. It is worth mentioning that it is precisely because of this background that car-making forces are often constrained by the supply of batteries.

In March of this year, Li Bin publicly stated that the supply of batteries was less than what Weilai expected. In addition, the cost of the battery itself accounted for most of the success of the entire car, accounting for at least 25% of the price of the whole car. Around, the battery “supplier” is the dominant one, and the potential risks hidden behind it are self-evident.

It is obvious that car companies are gradually realizing this. As early as September 2020, Tesla said that it would produce its own batteries;

In 2020, Daimler Group announced that it plans to deploy 9 battery factories in 7 cities on 3 continents; in March 2021, Volkswagen will hold the first Power Day and announce the company’s battery roadmap for the next ten years. …

Not limited to foreign countries, the domestic Great Wall Motors split off its power battery business in 2018 and established Honeycomb Energy; Geely Technology is planning to build a power battery project with an annual production capacity of 42GWh, with a total investment of 30 billion yuan; GAC’s press conference in 2021 Announced the power battery technology strategy.

If car companies are self-reliant, the future of the Ningde era does not seem as clear as before. What’s more worth mentioning is that according to data from the China Automobile Association, in the first half of this year, sales of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 52% year-on-year to 403,300 vehicles, surpassing China to become the largest new energy vehicle market. In the first half of 2021, domestic sales of new energy vehicles fell 44% year-on-year to 335,000 units.

The changes in the situation gave birth to another rival “LG Chem” in the Ningde era that cannot be underestimated. It is reported that the top 20 automotive products in the worldAmong the brands, LG Chem has 13 partners, even sweeping the entire European market. In the first quarter of 2020, LG Chem surpassed the Ningde era. In July 2020, LG Chem ranked first in the world with a market share of 24.6%.

Being embarrassed on all sides, this is a precursor to changes in the field of power batteries, and the Ningde era is worth considering how to move forward.

Wrong way, the Internet and the new media of the technology circle. WeChat public account of the same name: Daotmt. This article is an original article, any reprinting without retaining the author’s relevant information is declined.