In 1903, the Wright brothers flew a man-made airplane on the earth for the first time, and the concept of airplanes has since become like this. More than 100 years have passed, where will the new changes in the aviation industry be?
Xiao Jin, China Chief Technology Officer of Honeywell Aerospace Group, described the future urban air traffic (UAM) scenario: UAVs shuttle in their respective operating corridors To deliver takeaways, seafood from Zhoushan, Zhejiang, flew to Shanghai in an aircraft for an hour; took the elevator to the top of the city’s high-rise buildings, took the aircraft to another transportation node, and passengers landed and then transferred to ground transportation.
“Humans have always thought about flying freely.” Xiao Jin said in an interview with News (www.thepaper.cn) that the idea of urban air traffic is even more important. Reflecting this point, it has developed a third-dimensional three-dimensional transportation other than ground transportation and traditional air transportation, “absolutely a blue ocean.” The emergence of new ideas such as urban air transportation and Musk’s “Earth Hour Traffic Circle” made Xiao Jin feel that aviation has entered another era of change. If urban air transportation can be realized, this is a “big step forward in the past 100 years.”
Urban air traffic usually refers to on-demand automated air passenger or cargo services characterized by fly-and-stop, safe and efficient manned/unmanned driving. According to a research report by Morgan Stanley, by 2040, the global urban air transportation market will reach 1.5 trillion US dollars, and air logistics is expected to be the first to realize commercial applications.
Why will urban traffic in the future expand to the air? Xiao Jin explained that urban air traffic can fill the gap in the traditional aviation industry and solve the problem of uneconomical travel by plane within a range of 300 nautical miles (555.6 kilometers) and congestion on the ground.
In terms of shipping demand, Xiao Jin said that by 2023, there will be more than 700 billion parcels delivered globally. This data does not include takeaways. Delivery via drones, the market is very large. And customers’ expectations for the delivery date of the goods are getting higher and higher. Switching to urban air transportation can avoid the situation that cannot be delivered in time due to traffic congestion, and reduce storage capacity and inventory requirements.
If it is said that the construction of an airport occupies a large area and the investment in repairing subways and light rails is high, then the investment in urban air transportation is relatively low, mainly using the existing airport, or on the top of the tall building Set up transportation nodes. Urban air traffic is layered and three-dimensional to meet point-to-point transportation. Once it is used, travel time is greatly reduced, and urban CBD can also be distributed more widely.
The development of self-driving cars from L0 to L5, and the development of urban air traffic is the same. From basic autonomy to complete autonomy, pilot training time and workload are gradually reduced, and subsequently The purpose is to increase the autonomous flight capability of the aircraft.
Honeywell is simplifying the operation of the aircraft. They even invited pilots to experience the man-machine interface or cockpit in the development stage, and received “boring” feedback. This is exactly what R&D personnel want to see, “The flight interface is simplified, so more people can operate it.”
But urban air traffic really landed in Safety, environmental protection, load, voyage, cost, network security, air traffic control and other aspects are all facing challenges. As far as air traffic control is concerned, it operates well in isolated airspace. Once it enters mixed airspace operation, higher technical requirements are put forward for the equipment.
International standards need to be unified, and it takes time for the public to accept them. Safety and the environment are the two most important factors affecting public acceptance. Due to flying over cities, safety requirements cannot be reduced, the weight and volume of the aircraft must not be too large, and it must be quiet. “There is no limit to not flying at night or a certain period of time. Don’t fly.”
And technically achieving complete autonomy is still facing AI forensics problems. The use of artificial intelligence in aviation is not as completely transparent and 100% measurable as in the traditional sense of aviation development. “Artificial intelligence uses a lot of neural networks, and many processes are unknowable and unexplainable to us.”
These are in the process of exploration and development, “There are many challenges and opportunities, but I think the opportunities are very big and very exciting, because after all, it is a revolutionary change in human travel. “
Almost all commercial, defense and aviation aircraft in the world have various products and services of Honeywell Aerospace Group. Regarding the development of urban air traffic, “We have strong experience in the aviation industry, and we can optimize it according to different application scenarios, while also meeting safety requirements.” Xiao Jin said.
Xiao Jin, Chief Technology Officer, Honeywell Aerospace Group, China
BelowThis is the interview record:
[Why will urban traffic in the future expand to the air? 】
News: Urban air traffic usually refers to on-demand automated air passenger or cargo services characterized by fly-and-stop and unmanned driving. Specifically, what are the forms of urban air traffic?
Xiao Jin, China Chief Technology Officer of Honeywell Aerospace Group: One is a small commercial grade, like DJI drones, which may be Used to do some exploration or testing. This type is light in weight, with relatively low safety level and design assurance.
The second type is shipping. With the increase in weight, it can be divided into two markets, one is the “last mile” transportation, and the other is the transportation from the hub airport to the regional airport, and then the regional airport to the distribution center. Its load will be heavier. . If it is transported by truck and the ground is congested, then urban air traffic can solve these problems.
The third type is to transport people. Big cities are very congested, and commuting time basically averages more than one hour. There is a statistic that every year due to traffic congestion, each person in large cities loses 200 hours, and medium-sized cities may lose 100-150 hours. From this perspective, the development of the third-dimensional three-dimensional traffic of urban air traffic can greatly reduce traffic pressure.
News: Why will urban traffic in the future expand to the air? What are the advantages of urban air transportation compared to ground transportation?
Xiao Jin: There was an animation “The Jasons” in the United States in the 1960s. Back then, there were scenes of traveling in the air, going to work, sending children, and shopping. All are achieved through urban air traffic. So mankind has been thinking about this issue a long time ago. In addition to start-ups, the traditional aviation industry has also begun to deploy, and car companies have also begun to enter the future of urban air transportation. There are now many projects and the industry is very hot.
If the range is more than 300 nautical miles (555.6 kilometers), you can take an airplane; within 300 nautical miles, ground transportation is more effective. If you take modern traditional aviation, you must go to the airport, Security check, take-off, and landing are not economical in terms of time. So from this perspective, to solve the problem of ground congestion, urban air traffic can fill the gap in the traditional aviation industry.
From infrastructure constructionAbove all, if an airport is built, it will occupy a very large area. For example, Denver Airport in the United States transports 58 million guests every year, but it occupies an area of 33,000 acres. The subway is also very fast, but the investment in the subway and light rail is often billions or tens of billions.
Ground transportation has very high requirements for infrastructure. Roads, traffic lights, and traffic control are required on the ground. The cost is higher in mountainous areas. In the air, these infrastructure investments are gone, and the investment in urban air traffic is relatively economical and more effective, mainly using existing airports, helipads or high-rise buildings.
From the perspective of urban distribution, once urban air transportation can be used, the commercial clusters in the city can be distributed more widely. If urban air traffic is used, travel time can be greatly reduced, and commercial clusters or CBD can be better distributed. So this is why we think traffic will expand into the air.
We use aviation standards to design urban air traffic. Commercial aviation has a very rigorous safety system from manufacturing to operation to minimize operational risks. This kind of safety culture is passed on to urban air traffic, and safety can be improved and the accident rate can be reduced.
News: What are the needs on the market?
Xiao Jin: In terms of demand, e-commerce has grown at an annual rate of over 15% in the past 10 years. We have data that by 2023, there will be more than 700 billion parcels delivered globally, and now customers are increasingly expecting e-commerce delivery dates. Of course, today’s warehousing uses a lot of artificial intelligence technology, but if it is still pure ground transportation, it will still be subject to ground congestion.
Because of the traffic congestion, the delivery cannot be made in time, so it is necessary to expand the warehouse or stock up more goods. If you switch to urban air transportation, it can be delivered to customers in time, which will have low storage capacity and inventory requirements. Because it is completely instant, according to the customer’s order, the warehouse has the goods, and the goods can be delivered in time, which saves a lot of intermediate links.
Currently, we see that the countries with the largest e-commerce market are China, the United States, and Japan. And the more than 700 billion packages worldwide do not include takeaway. If takeaways are also delivered by drone in the future, the market is very large.
The meaning of urban air traffic is not only to carry people, but also unmanned cargo. In the range of urban air, passengers or cargo can be delivered safely and quickly to their destinations True meaningRighteously, the third dimension is opened. Usually, we may need 45 minutes or even an hour of travel time, and urban air traffic may be reduced to 5-10 minutes. This will bring revolutionary changes to transportation and e-commerce.
But everyone will say that helicopters have the same effect. Compared with the turboshaft engine of a helicopter, the urban air traffic uses electric vertical take-off and landing. The first advantage is that it uses electricity as an energy source, with less emissions and much lower maintenance costs for mechanical systems.
The second advantage is that a helicopter is generally a main rotor plus a tail rotor. We are a distributed electric propulsion system. Generally speaking, it is now multi-rotor. The noise will be reduced, the safety redundancy will be much higher, and the different horizontal and vertical orientation of the rotor will also support more energy-efficient flight.
Of course, there are noise and emissions. In a city like Shanghai, if there are 1,000 helicopters flying every day, noise and emissions must be a very big problem.
[Future travel: take an aircraft on top of a high building, land and transfer to ground transportation]
News: Using the urban air traffic flight system, what will the future travel scene be? of?
Jin Xiao: Uber’s elevator project was established in the early days, describing the way we travel after the emergence of air taxis. Just like our taxi-hailing software, passengers book a travel plan through the platform before traveling, and the platform formulates a mixed ground and air travel plan based on the passengers’ choices and requirements.
Before the start of the trip, unmanned taxis transport passengers from their homes to the transportation node of urban air traffic. It is similar to a heliport, but it may also be on the top of a tall building. Take the elevator up, then use the urban air traffic aircraft to transport passengers to another transportation node, and then quickly transfer to ground transportation after landing, which can connect airports, railway stations, and taxis. This is our imagined future travel mode.
Of course, like Uber or other taxi-hailing software, because there is a large amount of ground data, they know where the traffic is the most congested, and where air traffic should be used instead of ground traffic. They may Better plan where there should be vertical take-off and landing points.
News: What are the different flightsTo support urban air traffic?
Xiao Jin: One is a multi-rotor aircraft. One is the rotor + tail thruster. The rotor is used for vertical take-off and landing. Once it reaches the cruising altitude for horizontal flight, the tail thruster is used for cruise. There is also a tilting rotor, the rotor with the wing can change direction.
Each has its own advantages. Multi-rotor aircraft is relatively simple, and tilt-rotor is relatively complicated. Maintenance costs may be high, but its own weight may be lighter. , Because its rotors are multiplexed, horizontal propulsion and vertical take-off and landing can be shared. In terms of cruising distance, you must choose a tilt-rotor or an aircraft with horizontal thrust.
News: In order to realize urban air traffic, what technologies need to be paid attention to?
Xiao Jin:In terms of propulsion technology, one of the power modes of propulsion is full electricity, using lithium batteries or fuel cells. The current battery power density It can only support flying 100 miles-125 miles (about 161 kilometers-201 kilometers). If it is intercity air transport or long-distance flight, it is still necessary to consider mixed transport.
In terms of aircraft-level design, it must be quiet, because this is flying over the city, and there is no limit to not flying at night or not flying at a certain time.
From the control point of view, we must consider how to realize simple control, and finally realize unmanned operation. Taking into account the demand for pilots, if there are 1,000 pilots in Shanghai in the future, the cost of pilot training will be very high.
We are now also doing aircraft simplification operations. From the perspective of the electronic cockpit, how to simplify the man-machine interface instead of being as complicated as the interface of ordinary aircraft , The training cost is very high, we hope it will be easier in the future. So we did some pre-research and invited some pilots to our company from the US headquarters to let them experience the man-machine interface or cockpit control in the development stage.
Their reaction is that they are too boring and boring to sit. This is actually what we want to see. Professional pilots find it meaningless, because many operations including the flight interface are simplified, so more people can operate.
Just like when we rent a car in another city, we can basically know how to drive a car that has never been driven in a few minutes. This is the scene we want to see in the future. At the beginning, there were pilots and slowly transition to completely unmanned. Of course, it will take some time.
[Freight before carrying passengers, isolated small mountain villages are suitable for unmanned freight]
News: What kind of process will the development of urban air transportation go through?
Xiao Jin: We believe that the development of urban air traffic is the same as the development of automobiles. There are L0 to L5 for autonomous vehicles, and there will be such a one for urban air traffic. The process, from basic autonomy to complete autonomy. From the perspective of the technological development process, the workload and training time of the pilots will gradually be reduced, and consequently the ability of the aircraft to fly autonomously will be increased.
News: From basic autonomy to complete autonomy, are there clear stages and what are the main problems to be solved in each stage?
Xiao Jin: There is currently no uniform international standard, but the European Aviation Safety Agency has divided three into three categories for the realization of fully automated urban air traffic through AI. stage. People at the L1 stage are used as assistance and enhancement, and the people and machines at the L2 stage are cooperative.
L3 is divided into two stages, one stage is whether the person is still monitoring the system, and the other stage is the person no longer monitoring the system. This is actually a very important topic, that is, how to obtain evidence for AI. This is a topic that the entire aviation industry is now paying attention to.
News: Compared to carrying passengers, freight may go first?
Xiao Jin: My personal judgment is yes. China may have greater demand for cargo transportation, because the promotion of e-commerce is greater, and a lot of operating experience can be accumulated in the early stage of cargo loading, which can provide a lot of experience for the future safety regulations and regulations of manned people.
News: Ground transportation has an inner ring, a middle ring, and an outer ring. Will air traffic also form some air trunk lines and stagger in the air?
Xiao Jin: Compared with ground transportation, urban air transportation has the advantage of layering and three-dimensional. The most ideal is point-to-point flight without loops, which saves time Energy saving. It may also be ground transportation in big citiesDesigned an air corridor on the high-speed loop of China to centrally manage noise.
When urban air traffic is busy, a central intelligent automatic air traffic control system is required to issue instructions for each aircraft’s path, altitude, climb, descent, and emergency landing. , To ensure the safety of aircraft separation.
It is estimated that the urban air traffic design in each region will not be the same. In areas with developed navigation, functionality can be added to the existing infrastructure. In areas with underdeveloped navigation, there is a lot of flexibility at the beginning of the infrastructure design, and you can freely determine the minimum performance requirements of the aircraft. The possibility of arranging different speed corridors at different heights, through the intelligent air traffic control system, dynamically determines the air crossing points according to the weather and traffic conditions, and uses software to determine the dynamic air roads.
From this perspective, a big advantage of urban air traffic is that it is three-dimensional. Corridors can be arranged at different heights, which can avoid air congestion to a large extent. In the phenomenon, the operating surface is larger, not just a flat surface.
News: Is there a timeline to judge the landing of urban air traffic from cargo to manned?
Xiao Jin: We still have to invoke the judgment of the European Aviation Safety Agency. If it is for evidence collection, it is basically not far from operation. They believe that the first electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft will be certified in 2024, and the certification will be obtained in 2024, and then it will generally enter commercial operation in 2025.
We are more about supporting the roadmap of urban air traffic manufacturers. We are a system supplier. From this perspective, it is difficult for us to judge when they can Go to the market, because this is their own plan. This is the result of multi-party coordination. There are municipalities, airworthiness authorities, and urban air traffic providers.
There are many companies in this area in Europe and the United States, and China’s Yihang is also leading the way. Airworthiness authorities, urban air traffic providers, including system providers such as Honeywell, are all actively looking at it. This is definitely a blue ocean.
News: What is the current status of China’s urban air traffic? Which city is most likely to implement it first?
Xiao Jin: The first batch of civil drone pilot aviation test namesThere are 13 regions alone. For example, the target location of Jinshan District in Shanghai is an island scene, Hangzhou, Zhejiang is an urban scene, Zigong, Sichuan is a branch logistics scene, Hezhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is a comprehensive application expansion scene, Anyang, Henan is an urban scene, and Nanjing, Jiangsu is a comprehensive application Expand the scene. The 13 test areas have related scenarios in the planning.
Jinshan District chooses the seaport model, for example, seafood from Zhoushan is shipped to downtown Shanghai within an hour. There is also demand in western China, because the road network is not so developed, and there will be more application scenarios in western mountainous areas. There are many small mountain villages in China that are relatively isolated and the transportation is not very convenient, but there are many local products to be sold, and many e-commerce goods are transported in. They are suitable for unmanned freight, and there is no need to build infrastructure, build highways, and drill holes through mountains. The investment is very large.
[Safety, environmental protection, load, voyage, cost, network security, air traffic control must be explored]
News: What are the other aspects to realize the urban air traffic system Need to overcome?
Jin Xiao:In terms of the capabilities of the aircraft itself, safety, environmental protection, payload, range, cost, these factors are the most critical, and these aspects are all satisfied In fact, there are not many aircraft.
From the perspective of operations, range, load and corresponding costs are the most critical. With less weight, you can fly far; if you carry more, you can fly short. If all are satisfied, the cost will be high. So this is an iron triangle, and technology must be optimized to meet operational requirements.
From the perspective of public acceptance, safety and environment are the two most important factors. A report issued by the European Aviation Agency in May this year stated that in the survey of the acceptance of urban air traffic in European society, European concerns about safety and the environment reached 37% and 38%.
From the perspective of the solution path, the technology must be continuously optimized. In terms of environment, hybrid or all-electricity can definitely solve this concern; in terms of safety, use the design required by aviation The degree of protection, just like our flight control system achieves a safety degree of one-billionth, which may increase public acceptance.
In addition, when cars were first put on the market and entered human life, the roads were also chaotic. Slowly began to establish traffic laws, there were traffic police, and then there were traffic lights. After planning, people adapt. Today you look at the sky and there is nothing. Tomorrow you will see a lot of aircraft flying on it. Everyone will say yes.Will fall. How to better plan their flights and make them safer is also an aspect.
Regarding air management, there are currently 13 test flight zones across the country doing proof of concept in this regard. Everyone is still discussing how to do a good job in air traffic control. This is also a brand new topic, but at present, it may still focus on isolated operations from manned flights in areas with sparse personnel.
For example, commercial drones have air traffic control providers for commercial drones, urban air traffic has air traffic control providers for urban air traffic, and general aviation has specific low Airspace management, the normal 121 transport aviation has civil air traffic control personnel.
All parties share data, and coordinate the operation of each type of aircraft to operate independently in its own area, which meets the operational requirements and standards in the airspace. Once you fly to someone else’s airspace, or transfer passengers from an urban air traffic plane to a transport aviation airport, you must comply with the operating procedures and standards of other people’s airspace.
And these test flight areas are mainly to verify the flight operation under visual weather conditions. The next step is how to safely perform all-weather instrument flight. In cities with many tall buildings and strong winds, low-altitude wind temperature and micro-weather observation forecasts are also arranged to determine operating procedures and standards.
But this is still in the proof-of-concept stage. I believe that with the improvement of technology and regulations, for us, I think we can start operations in the near future . In the future, after the entry of artificial intelligence and big data, the plans for air traffic control and flight routes may become intelligent and autonomous. This is currently being explored and developed.
There is also network security. Once in the future, hackers will cause greater damage. Therefore, in design assurance, how to ensure network security is to be considered. There are also air traffic control, operations, urban municipal regulations, and public acceptance.
News: Among the links of cost, technology, infrastructure, air traffic control, operators, and public acceptance, which link has the slowest progress, affecting the implementation of urban air traffic?
Xiao Jin: The initial infrastructure problems are relatively small, because there are ready-made airports and helicopter platforms. Of course, a vertical take-off and landing platform may be needed after expansion. . Regarding whether it is necessary to build a charging or fuel filling station near the helicopter platform,
If the future is directly battery-powered aircraft, it is necessary to solve the problem of where to build charging and replacement and storage points to support peak hours; if it is to be charged, then the requirements of the power grid may require a model, such as where to instantly respond The demand for electricity is relatively large. To charge on a helicopter platform, it is also necessary to upgrade the power distribution system of the platform building and the fire protection system for fast and high-current charging.
As far as air traffic control is concerned, because urban air traffic requires relatively high technology integration, the challenges of air operations and air traffic control will be greater. At present, the operation of isolated airspace may be fine. Once it enters the mixed airspace operation, the requirements for communication, navigation and monitoring equipment and coverage are relatively greater. It also depends on the support of each country’s airspace reform and three-dimensional traffic planning.
Public acceptance also takes time, and there are also international standards. There are many exchanges between Civil Aviation of China, the Federal Aviation Administration of the United States, and the European Aviation Safety Agency. How to form a unified Standards. Technically, to achieve complete autonomy in the end, the application of AI and how to obtain evidence by AI need to be overcome.
As far as the cost is concerned, the cost is inversely proportional to the batch. It requires mainstream aircraft design, mass production, and cost reduction.
News: How to balance the three aspects of load, range, and cost?
Xiao Jin: The requirements for balancing all aspects are completely implemented according to the operating scenarios and operating requirements. For example, if the load reaches more than one ton, and the operation scenario needs to reach more than 600 miles (approximately 966 kilometers), then it is impossible to use full electricity under current conditions, and hybrid power is required. For example, to carry people in the city, full power can be used for a 20-minute voyage.
Whether the urban air traffic aircraft is 2-seater or 4-seater, is it a rotorcraft or a rotorcraft with horizontal propulsion, which also requires balance in weight and application scenarios Also related. Of course, it has something to do with the deduction of our own technology, and it has something to do with the requirements of the airworthiness authority for operations. There are new experiences in operations, and the requirements for the system may also change. This is a process of continuous iteration and evolution.
The aviation industry is actually the same, so many of our regulations are also produced by the lessons of blood. This is a brand new field. Of course, it stands on the shoulders of giants. Human beings have accumulated so many years in aviation. Urban air transportation is a very effective cross-border integration, combining aviation industry, automobile industry and Internet technology.