Competition in the betta fish teeth is intensifying, will technology empowerment be the way out for the live broadcast industry?
Editor’s note: This article is from the “American Stock Research Institute” (ID: meigushe).
In recent years, China’s live broadcast has developed rapidly. Since 2014, live broadcast has gradually entered the eyes of the public. With the rapid influx of capital, the live broadcast industry is developing at a high speed. According to CNNIC data, as of the end of December 2018, the number of live webcast users reached 397 million, and the usage rate of netizens was 47.9%. At present, there are a variety of live broadcasts, including live games, live entertainment, e-commerce and so on. Today’s live broadcast has become an important part of people’s lives, but the live broadcast industry has undergone several reshuffles, coupled with its own limitations, the growth rate has gradually slowed down. The US stock research institute will try to analyze his development by watching the changes in the live broadcast industry for a long time. trend.
Despite the rapid development of the live broadcast industry in recent years, there is a hidden crisis behind it. On the one hand, the user growth rate is gradually slowing down, on the other hand, the live broadcast channel is single, and it is difficult to meet the growing revenue demand only by reward. Finally, the impact of the head anchor on the platform is getting bigger and bigger, and the platform is constrained by it, which makes the relationship between the two not harmonious and becomes a hidden crisis of live broadcast development. Coupled with the management of the relevant departments, etc., the live broadcast industry may have already reached the turning point, and the future development trend is not clear.
In fact, we may be able to see the direction of future development from the comparison of major platforms. For example, from the comparison of the earnings of the Mo Mo and the gathering era, we can find that overseas may be another way of broadcasting. Not only that, but with the advancement of technology, the form of future live broadcasts may also undergo more changes. The interaction between the anchor and the user will be improved.
The three types of live broadcasts throughout the market, the platform head effect is more and more significant
At present, live broadcasts are mainly divided into three forms. The live broadcast represented by tiger teeth and betta fish, live entertainment represented by Mo Mo, YY, live by e-commerce represented by Taobao, Jingdong, Mushroom Street and other e-commerce. From their financial reports, we can see that the live broadcast and entertainment live broadcast have entered a mature stage after a long period of development. The e-commerce live broadcast started late, but behind it is the major e-commerce platform, which makes the competition of e-commerce live more intense than other live broadcast forms, coupled with the short video into the live broadcast industry, the live broadcast market is changing.
(1) The game live is gradually mature, and the head platform occupies the market
The game live broadcast market is gradually maturing. Gamma Data recently released the “2019 China E-sports Industry Report (live)”, the report shows that the Chinese game live broadcast market revenue will exceed 10 billion yuan. After years of development, the content of the game has gradually matured. At present, fighting fish and tiger teeth have become the main gathering place for game live broadcast. But fast, B station and other platformsAlso actively enter the game live broadcast industry. Future competition will continue to intensify.
From the earnings of Betta and Tiger, we may see the current situation of the game market. In the second quarter of Finnish 2019, total net revenue was 1.872 billion yuan, up 133.2% year-on-year; net profit was 23.2 million yuan, compared with a net loss of 228.7 million yuan in the same period last year. Huya’s financial report shows that in the second quarter of 2019, total revenue of Huya increased by 93.6% year-on-year to RMB 2.0105 billion. Under non-GAAP, net profit attributable to Huya was RMB170.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 61.7%, reaching a new high and achieving profit for seven consecutive quarters.
The contrast between the two shows that tiger teeth are better than fighting fish. However, the strength of the two is not much different. Tencent support is behind them. The competition between the two will intensify, but it will still maintain the current situation. We also noticed that although the revenue and net profit of the two companies grew at a high speed, looking at the whole market, combined with the gamma data, the growth of the game live broadcast is gradually slowing down, which deserves our attention.
(2) Entertainment live broadcast of fan economy, Mo Mo YY into the head platform
Entertainment live growth is gradually slowing down. With the collapse of Panda TV, Momo and YY became the largest platform for entertainment live broadcast. Although other such as NetEase cloud music also has live broadcast business, it is difficult to compare with Momo and YY. Comparing the financial reports of Mo Mo and YY, we found that Mo Mo pays more attention to the development of the domestic market, YY gradually goes overseas, and the live broadcast gradually touches the ceiling.
At the same time, it can be known from the financial report that the development potential of YY is more than strange. Momo Technology’s second quarter revenue was 4.153 billion yuan, compared with 3.152 billion in the same period last year. Net profit attributable to the company in the second quarter was 732 million yuan, compared with 751 million in the same period last year. In the second fiscal quarter of FY2019, the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 25.79 million, an increase of 118.84% over the same period of last year. The operating income was RMB 6.295 billion, a year-on-year increase of 66.84%. Since the gathering era contains many businesses, it is difficult to compare the volume of both YY live broadcast and Momo live broadcast, but we can see from the development of the two that YY has more imagination than Momo.
It is worth noting that since YY develops overseas markets, the competition between the two is not as great as the live broadcast platform. The current entertainment live broadcast gradually touches the ceiling. In order to increase revenue, the two continue to develop entertainment live broadcasts in a way that works with stars. The current fan economy is still prevalent, and this move may add new revenue to both.
(3) The e-commerce live broadcast is in full swing, and the competition on the big platform is getting more and more intense
The e-commerce live broadcast, although it appeared later, has developed rapidly and has become a new way for e-commerce revenue. Head users include e-commerce platforms such as Taobao, Jingdong, and Mushroom Street, as well as short video platforms such as Vibrato. Compared to live games and live entertainment, e-commerce live competition is more intense, participants are moremany. Moreover, e-commerce is one of the ways to realize live broadcasts. It is obviously more reliable than simply relying on rewards. As more and more platforms enter the e-commerce live broadcast, the future competition will be further intensified.
This can be seen from the live performance of e-commerce on all major platforms. In 2018, the monthly growth rate of Taobao live broadcast reached 350%, and the average daily viewing volume of short videos reached 1.9 billion. The volume of transactions driven by the whole year broke 100 billion, and the conversion rate into the store exceeded 65%. At present, the number of fast-handed business users has exceeded 600,000, the number of newly added users has exceeded 10,000 per day, the number of newly added business works has exceeded 500,000 daily, and the daily live broadcasts have exceeded 200,000. We have seen the rapid development of e-commerce platform live broadcast and short video live broadcast. In the future, the e-commerce live broadcast platform will continue to increase. Other e-commerce platforms will also join the battlefield. All major platforms are improving their revenue targets, but the entire market capacity. Limited, it is difficult to maintain the survival of many platforms.
Regularity is becoming more stringent, content copyright or limiting factors
For the live broadcast platform, the three major risks cannot be ignored. Including the supervision of the relevant departments, content copyright and the relationship between the anchor and the platform. Although the live broadcast industry is developing rapidly, if it wants to develop in the long run, it must be legal and compliant. This will become the consensus of the whole industry, and it also enlightens that the platform needs to strengthen internal management to avoid omissions. At the same time, high compliance costs will also lead to the decline of small platforms.
(1) Platform supervision is gradually increasing, and copyright issues need to be resolved
The management of the relevant departments will become more stringent. Since 2016, the relevant departments have repeatedly promulgated relevant management regulations to promote the healthy and orderly development of the live broadcast industry, but even so, there are still many adverse events, such as the “Qiao Biluo” incident, the anchoring drowning incident, and the live gambling incident. In the future, relevant departments will continue to strengthen supervision, which may become a hidden risk of platform live broadcast.
Copyright or another major obstacle to live development. Not long ago, an anchor caused infringement due to playing a song, and finally caused compensation. Although the platform considers itself to be a technology provider, it still touches the law. Judging from the current situation, many platforms have live songs, videos, games and many other content. Copyright may be a large cost in the future. The restriction of copyright will also lead to the gradual concentration of anchors to the big platform, and the small live broadcast platform will gradually decline.
(2) The relationship between the anchor and the platform is subtle, or it will lead to vicious competition
The relationship between the anchor and the platform is noteworthy. Not long ago, mushroomsStreet announced that it would not sign a labor contract with the anchor, just as a technology provider, although it can avoid risks to a certain extent. However, the relationship between the live broadcast and the platform is becoming more and more fragile, and there is a long-term incident between the fighting fish and the tiger tooth. This will not only affect the development of the platform, but also cause huge costs and adversely affect the entire industry. Not only that, but the impact of the big anchor on the platform will also grow. Excessive compensation will also affect the development of the platform.
Technology technology services or the key to the development of the live broadcast industry, the live broadcast type is more diverse
Although the current live broadcast is nearing maturity, there is still much room for development. There may be three major development trends in the future live broadcast. First, with the development of technology, the interaction between the future anchor, platform and users will become more and more abundant. Secondly, the variety of live broadcasts, live broadcasts of education, live broadcasts of enterprises, etc. may arise. Finally, the affiliated companies of the live broadcast platform will develop rapidly and provide more professional services.
(1) Technology increases live broadcast form, and diversified live broadcast develops in depth
Technology empowerment live development. According to iResearch data, the integration of big data artificial intelligence will explore innovative value-added services and promote the diversification and diversification of forms and revenues. On the one hand, continuous deepening of artificial intelligence application in the field of enterprise live broadcast is not only enough to improve efficiency, but also enhance the security of live information and enrich the interactive form. On the other hand, through data analysis of user needs, increase the attractiveness of live broadcast. As a result, the relationship between the user and the anchor may develop benign, and the communication between the two will also grow.
The live broadcast type is more and more abundant. In addition to games, entertainment, and e-commerce, other live broadcast formats have gradually emerged. For example, education live broadcast, online education institutions have entered the stage of compliance development, VIP kid, New Oriental and other large platforms have become the main live broadcast platform. Corporate training live broadcasts are also rapidly developing. According to the official data of iResearch, China’s online education industry realized large-scale realization in 2017 with the help of “live broadcast”. In 2018, the market scale reached 251.76 billion yuan, and the number of paid users reached 135 million. The growth rate will remain at 20 in the short term. About 20% is expected to exceed 540 billion yuan in 2022.
(2) The affiliated companies of the live broadcast platform develop rapidly and provide professional services
The live affiliate service company is gradually emerging. With the maturity of cloud computing and 5G technologies, the future broadcast affiliates will develop rapidly. Before and after 2016After experiencing rapid growth, the market revenue reached 207.66 billion yuan in 2018. Based on the industry’s vertical exploration of small and medium-sized enterprises’ live broadcast service demand and horizontal expansion, its application in medical and e-commerce will deepen. It is expected that the market size will exceed 1 billion in 2019.
The rise of the affiliated platform will provide more professional services for the live broadcast platform, thus promoting the development of the live broadcast platform. As mentioned above, the development of technology is rich in interactive forms. Through the rise of affiliated organizations, the platform and anchors will have a deeper understanding of the needs of users, which will further promote the development of the live broadcast industry.
Overall, the live broadcast industry has developed rapidly, but the growth rate has gradually slowed down. This will lead to the current three major live broadcast types, games, entertainment, and e-commerce being affected, further exacerbating competition between live broadcast platforms. With the strict regulation and copyright restrictions, the head effect of the future live broadcast platform will become more and more obvious. However, with the advancement of technology, the future live broadcast platform will face new development opportunities, and other types of live broadcasts will also rise. The US Stock Research Institute will also continue to report on the impact of technological advances on the live broadcast industry.