The scarcity of Moutai will make it an investment.

At the end of August, after the first Costco opened in Shanghai, the most sought-after item in the store was Moutai.

The retail price of 1498 yuan a bottle of Maotai Feitian wine was robbed in the door after the opening, some netizens rushed to buy Maotai’s “record”: the whole family rushed to buy 12 bottles of Maotai Feitian, then each bottle increased 1,000 yuan Sold to the ox. Even if is based on 2,498 yuan, the scalper still has to earn. It is reported that the price of the bottle of flying wine in the market exceeds 3,000 yuan, which is twice the official price,

The Hermes handbag was also robbed with Feitian. Obtaining the same treatment as the name package, Moutai is clearly not only a consumer product.

But in its long history, Moutai is rarely used as a luxury.

When others earned 12,000 yuan by buying 12 bottles of Maotai in Costco, it’s probably already It’s hard to think of it again. Four years ago, the official recommendation of Maotai Feitian was only priced. It is 888 yuan. Ten years ago, this price was around 800 yuan.

Moutai flying wine, why is the price flying now?

The plan can’t keep up with changes

Simply, the price of flying is in short supply. However, there is no accurate estimate of how much the demand gap for Moutai in 2019 is. One said that the demand gap in the past three years totaled 9,000 tons, which is close to one-third of the total amount of Moutai sold by Guizhou Moutai Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Kweichow Moutai) in 2018. The exaggerated argument is that Moutai can only meet one-third of market demand in 2019.

This gap is surprisingly large. But the roots were buried five years ago.

In Guizhou, Maotai Town is a bit special. The average elevation of Guizhou is more than 1,000 meters, but in the Chishui River Valley where Maotai Town is located, it is less than 500 meters above sea level. The valley area makes the average temperature here higher than the provincial capital Guiyang. The warm climate, together with the Chishui River for winemaking, and the local specialties are the three elements that make Moutai.

The local people are proud of the sauce-flavored distilled liquor, which benefits from these three elements and has a special aroma. According to the introduction of Maotai locals, Moutai has “the uniqueness, scarcity and uniqueness of resources” – that is to say, the output of Moutai itself is subject to the above three factors, and it is not intended to be brewed.

Among them, the production of sorghum is the most critical. Maotai Town is located in a narrow river valley with limited arable land. It is difficult to meet the demand of wine sorghum in Guizhou Maotai and hundreds of local wineries. Kweichow Moutai has been expanding the area of ​​sorghum planting around Maotai Town toMake sure that there are enough raw materials to meet production needs every year. In order to avoid losses caused by over-planting, the annual planting area of ​​Gaochun is linked to the brewing plan of Guizhou Maotai.

After the annual Double Ninth Festival, the sorghum harvest is announced, and the new winemaking season begins. The new wine brewed this year is called the base wine, and the wine tastes pungent. It will gradually reveal the fragrance when it is removed by aging. This process takes five years. After the base wine is aged, about 75%-85% is used to blend the Moutai that is made in the market. The remaining base wine is used for Chen Fang, which meets the demand for blending wines of 15 years, 30 years, 50 years and 80 years respectively. Some of the base wine will also evaporate during the discharge.

It can be seen that the production of Moutai needs to be carried out as planned. The annual output is limited by the production of base wine five years ago, and will not suddenly increase production due to the surge in market demand. Such a 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) in Moutai, Guizhou is also reflected. The annual increase in Moutai base wine production planning is no more than 6,000 tons, and the growth rate is maintained at 10-20%.

I know] forced to become a luxury, Maotai price has fallen for ten years

Flying wine packaging workshop in Moutai, Guizhou

Originally, the production of Moutai was not as busy as planned, but the market did not follow the plan. From 2009 to 2019, the price of Maotai wine has at least two rounds of sharp rise and a sharp drop.

Moutai was previously the main white wine for official consumption. In 2009, the official suggested retail price was still around 800 yuan, but suddenly the price surged from 2011 to 2012, and the terminal guidance price rose more than 100% in two years. In 2012, the central “eight regulations” landed and quickly cut off the official consumption channels. The official pricing of Maotai Feitian Liquor fell from 2,299 yuan to , and fell to the bottom of 888 yuan by 2015.

From 2012 to 2015, due to the pessimistic environment of the market, Guizhou’s Maotai’s base wine production barely increased, but fell by 17% in 2015, plus five years of aging time. It is just between 2017 and 2020. No one can predict that by this time, the consumption of liquor can turn over and the fish will continue to rise.

By the end of 2015, the depth adjustment of the liquor market was gradually completed. “The transition period of official consumption to private consumption has arrived.” A former person in charge of Guizhou Maotai