“Our research found that Chinese households will have more than US$70 trillion in investable assets by 2030, of which about 60% of the assets are for non-deposit products, such as securities, mutual funds and bank wealth management products.” October On the 23rd, Goldman Sachs Group President and Chief Operating Officer John Waldron said at the 3rd Bund Finance Summit that in view of the continuous emergence of business deployment and innovation in these areas, the situation is quite optimistic.
Goldman Sachs believes that China’s asset management, especially the pension management market, can play an important role in helping to fund the climate transition.
The theme of this year’s Bund Finance Summit is recovery, challenges and sustainability in the post-epidemic era. Waldron believes that the world is facing four major trends in the post-epidemic era.
First of all, in the post-epidemic era, inclusive growth is a major challenge facing the world. At present, consumers have a strong demand for commodities, with high savings rates and low interest rates. However, as people’s concerns about inflation gradually intensify, the future economic situation will become more complicated, and the recovery speed of industries such as manufacturing will be higher than that of service industries, including industries such as tourism and hotels.
Goldman Sachs’ research shows that in 9 of the 20 largest economies, the GDP in the third quarter of this year has surpassed the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019. Including China and the United States, however, the level of economic activity in countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Spain, and the United Kingdom is still far lower than before the epidemic. If the public and private sectors of all countries fail to face these issues directly and take them into account at the highest level of decision-making, the epidemic will exacerbate many inequalities that have existed for decades.
Secondly, domestic problems often lead to international problems. As the world gradually enters the post-epidemic era, after global stimulus measures have released trillions of dollars in funds , Will face a heavier government debt problem.
Waldron said that the current global government debt is expected to account for 97.8% of world GDP in 2021, which is 83.6% in 2019.
” The government’s fiscal policy and the central bank’s monetary support measures are showing a trend of correction. From the long-term national fiscal and economic health perspective, this is correct, but this The measures have also exacerbated short-term risks for countries. For many relatively vulnerable groups and citizens, returning to normal is the biggest short-term risk.” Waldrsaid on.
In addition, the economic landscape is also about to change, and the world is witnessing the process of reconnecting and combining globalized economies.
In Waldron’s view, the current widespread adoption of remote work models and our real-time stress testing of the modern global economy have weakened the supply chain.
Goldman Sachs’ latest analysis shows that two-thirds of the current global manufacturing supply delay can be attributed to the sharp rise in demand for goods. This phenomenon itself is a product of the new normal in economics. As people start to spend more money on purchasing services instead of goods in the next 12 months, the delay problem should be eased. At the same time, current trade protectionism tends to be stronger than in the past few decades. Geopolitical issues are increasingly spreading to global trade. The epidemic and the economic shocks caused by the epidemic will only make countries pay more attention to their country’s position in the world market.
The last major change trend is the continuous advancement of technology.
During the epidemic, 5G, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and telemedicine are accelerating progress. Digital infrastructure achieved a 22% growth last year, and this year it will achieve a growth of more than 26%. According to data from the technology research and consulting company Gartner, the total will exceed US$400 billion. The main reason for the growth is that digital infrastructure provides digital and productivity tool support for public cloud spending, individuals and companies. “It will be more difficult for markets and investors to distinguish between technology companies and non-technical companies because the boundaries between the two are becoming increasingly blurred,” Waldron said.
Waldron said that Goldman Sachs considers sustainability mainly from two aspects. The first is inclusive growth and the second is climate transformation.
According to its introduction, Goldman Sachs promised to invest US$750 billion in financial support in the next 10 years, as well as investment in consultants and resources.
“We have invested US$156 billion in the first year, which is equivalent to 20% of the initial target amount, which shows that the current market is full of enthusiasm for accomplishing this goal , Capital is also tilting to this field.” Waldron said.
Goldman Sachs believes that China’s asset management, especially the pension management market, can helpPlay an important role in financing the climate transition.
“Our research found that Chinese households will have more than US$70 trillion in investable assets by 2030, and about 60% of them are for non-deposit products Such as securities, mutual funds and bank wealth management products. In view of the continuous business deployment and innovation in these areas, the situation is quite optimistic.” Waldron said.
“As far as we are concerned, Goldman Sachs issued its first sustainability bond in February this year, and the market has responded enthusiastically.” Waldron further stated, “Goldman Sachs will A lot of resources are invested in more and more customized and hybrid stock and bond products, including SDG-related bonds and derivatives, environmental impact bonds, and social impact bonds issued in the United States. We are continuing to strengthen and develop our Products, including carbon analysis data, electricity and carbon offset trading, etc.”