The National Bureau of Statistics will release April consumer price index (CPI) data and industrial producer price index (PPI) data in the near future. Many institutions predict that due to the rising prices of vegetables, pork and other foods, the CPI in April will rise slightly year-on-year, or about 2%. Due to the continuous efforts of domestic measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices, it is expected that the PPI will continue to decline year-on-year in April, with an increase of around 8.0%.

Expanded demand supports the upward trend of CPI

“It is expected that the CPI in April will increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year.” Chief Economist of Zheshang Securities Scientist Li Chao said that the price of fruits, vegetables and eggs has risen sharply under the expanding demand, which has formed a strong support for the upward trend of CPI. In April, due to various factors, traffic and logistics in some areas were blocked, and food supply was tight. Among them, the average wholesale prices of 28 kinds of key monitored vegetables and eggs have increased by more than 17% year-on-year, and the average price of 7 kinds of key monitored fruits has also increased by more than 12% year-on-year.

“It is expected that the CPI in April will further rise to around 2.0% year-on-year.” Mingming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that food items in the CPI in April In particular, the price of pork has stopped falling in April, and the price of fresh fruit has also risen seasonally. In terms of non-food items, affected by multiple factors, the prices of some consumer goods may rebound. In general, the CPI is expected to rise slightly month-on-month, superimposed on the tail-raising factor, and the CPI in April will rise year-on-year.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that the CPI in April rose slightly year-on-year or slightly higher due to the spread of the epidemic, energy, etc. Due to the superimposed effect of rising production costs, the prices of vegetables, pork and other foods have risen. However, considering that domestic consumption is in the recovery stage and domestic agricultural products are in sufficient supply, domestic supply and price stabilization measures will help stabilize market supply and production cost pressure, and prices can remain stable. Gentle and controllable.

Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, said that on April 15, the central bank pointed out that it “closely pays attention to changes in price trends and maintains overall price stability”, and considers the base for the same period in 2021. Up 0.4 percentage points, it is expected that the core CPI in April will fluctuate slightly on the basis of March.

Three factors are bad for April PPI year-on-year

In terms of PPI, Zheng Houcheng said that the base effect, the tail-raising factor and the new price increase factor are all unfavorable to the PPI in April. OK, and there is a high probability of entering the “7” era.

“The PPI in April will drop slightly to about 7.8% year-on-year. “It is obviously expected.

Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Financial Information Research Institute, predicts that the PPI in April will increase by about 8.0% year-on-year. “The PPI tail-raising factor in April fell by 1.0% from the previous month. around percent. At the same time, the development of infrastructure and the expected restoration of real estate will form a certain support for domestic priced commodities, but the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continues to advance, and the month-on-month increase in the prices of industrial products such as coal is relatively controllable. “Wu Chaoming said.

Zhou Maohua said that the PPI in April may continue to fall year-on-year. On the one hand, energy and commodity prices remain high and volatile; The measures to ensure the supply and price stability of raw materials and other commodities continue to exert force.

In Mingming’s view, last year’s CPI and PPI gradually diverged year-on-year, but this year, the two have turned to convergence. The year-on-year scissors gap between CPI and PPI may further converge. The year-on-year upward trend of CPI may continue for a period of time, and the year-on-year downward trend of PPI will also continue throughout the year, and there will be no risk of high inflation as a whole. Stabilizing prices has become an important goal at the current stage. Among them, food production, energy supply, and supply chain bottlenecks are the most important policy concerns. For monetary policy, the pressure to stabilize prices has increased, and the operation of total easing may require stronger triggers and appropriate windows , the structural monetary policy tools will further exert force.