Domestic refined oil prices have experienced “three consecutive falls”. The national development and Reform Commission announced in the evening of July 26 that according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market and the current price formation mechanism of refined oil, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products) have been reduced by 300 yuan and 290 yuan per ton respectively since 24:00 on July 26< Br > < div class= "contheight" > < /div> equivalent to the price increase, the above adjustment range is equivalent to the reduction of 0.24 yuan, 0.25 yuan and 0.25 yuan for No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel respectively. This is the fourth decline in refined oil prices this year, and the third consecutive decline since June 28< Br > < div class= "contheight" > < / div > after this round of price adjustment, the cost of oil consumption by consumers has decreased. Wang Luqing, a refined oil analyst at zhuochuang information, estimated that taking a household car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, filling a tank of No. 92 gasoline would cost about 12 yuan less than before. In terms of fuel consumption, take small private cars with a monthly mileage of 2000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers as an example. By the time before the next price adjustment window (24:00 on August 9) opens, consumers’ fuel costs will be reduced by about 19.2 yuan. In the logistics industry, take the heavy-duty trucks that run 10000 kilometers a month and consume 38L of fuel per hundred kilometers as an example. Before the next price adjustment window opens, the fuel cost of a single vehicle will drop by about 475 yuan< Br > < div class= "contheight" > < / div > taking a family car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, after this round of price adjustment, it will cost about 39 yuan less to fill a box of No. 92 gasoline than in mid and late June< Br > < div class= "contheight" > < / div > majiancai, an energy analyst at jinlianchuang, recalled that during this round of pricing cycle, the international crude oil price showed a wide-ranging downward trend. At the beginning of the pricing cycle, the epidemic counterattack suppressed investors’ mentality, and the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar put pressure on oil prices, which fell by more than 7%. During the cycle, Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia achieved little on the issue of crude oil, and supply concerns remained. Crude oil closed up sharply by more than 5%. At the end of the pricing cycle, EU sanctions against Russia were relaxed, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates sharply at the end of the month pressured oil prices. Under the guidance of bad news, the trend of crude oil continued to fall. Affected by the downward trend of crude oil, the crude oil change rate of this round continued to run in a negative range< Br > < div class= "contheight" > < / div > according to Ma Jiancai’s analysis, in addition to the high price markets in Tibet and Hainan, after the current round of retail price reduction, the domestic price level of No. 92 gasoline will be 8.45-8.6 yuan / liter, and the price level of No. 0 diesel will be 8.1-8.3 yuan / liter, which is significantly lower than that before June 28< Br > < div class= "contheight" > < /div> “recently, the domestic wholesale and retail price difference is still high, and the gas station profits are considerable. Under the background of accelerating the recovery of the domestic economy and stimulating downstream consumption, the gas station maintains a wide range of concessions.” Ma Jiancai said that at present, the preferential range of gasoline in the main gas stations (i.e. PetroChina and Sinopec gas stations) is mostly 0.4-1.0 yuan / liter, and the preferential range of diesel is mostly 0.3-0.5 yuan / liter. The preferential range of social gas stations is significantly higher than that of the main ones. The preferential range of gasoline and diesel is about 0.8-1.5 yuan / liter, and the preferential range of gasoline in some competitive stations is up to 2 yuan / liter< Br > < div class= "contheight" > < /div> according to news statistics, the retail price of domestic refined oil has experienced “ten rises and four falls” since 2022. After offsetting the rise and fall, gasoline and diesel increased by 1740 yuan / ton and 1675 yuan / ton respectively, and the discount price of 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline and 0 diesel increased by 1.37 yuan, 1.44 yuan and 1.42 yuan respectively. After the implementation of the retail price reduction, continue to spit back part of the increase and reduce the cost of oil< Br > < div class= "contheight" > < / div > the price monitoring center of the national development and Reform Commission predicts that oil prices may still be weak in the short term. On the demand side, the consumption weakness caused by high oil prices will continue. In terms of supply, the United States and Europe allow traders to buy Russian marine crude oil and sell it to a third party. The partial resumption of Libyan crude oil production will help ease the tight supply situation< Br > < div class= "contheight" > < / div > the next round of price adjustment window is at 24:00 on August 9. Li Yan, crude oil analyst of Longzhong information, believes that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will show a slight upward trend at the beginning. At present, a new round of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this month may once again put pressure on the economy and demand, but the geographical and supply side are still good, and there is still room for the game. It is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will be stranded with a high probability< Br > < div class= "contheight" > < / div > the deposit Lianchuang estimation model estimates that the range on the first working day of entering a new round of pricing cycle is 0.2%, corresponding to an increase of 15 yuan / ton for gasoline and diesel. As the current international market continues to weigh the two major factors of supply and demand, the price trend will remain volatile in the short term, and the direction of the new round of price adjustment is not clear for the time being< Br > < div class= "contheight" > < / div > in this regard, Xu Na, a refined oil analyst at zhuochuang information, believes that in the next cycle, the market will mainly focus on the final results of the Federal Reserve meeting and the OPEC + meeting. The failure of the supply side to effectively release and the recent strong trend of natural gas may drive market sentiment, the fundamentals remain strong, and it is difficult for crude oil to decline in a trend or a continuous decline; On the other hand, the Fed’s interest rate hike and table contraction have made the decline of large categories of assets or become a general trend. From a comprehensive analysis, it is expected that the international oil price may show a weak and volatile trend as a whole.