The strength of the US dollar reappeared. Yesterday, the US dollar index broke through the 109 mark in the intraday session, setting a 20-year high. The exchange rate of non-U.S. currencies fell across the board. The exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar fell below 1:1 again, and the Korean won fell to a new low in 13 years. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar depreciated in both the onshore and offshore markets, approaching the 6.9 level< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > the international foreign exchange market has a “one-sided” trend, and the European energy supply crisis is the “fuse”. On March 22, the European natural gas futures price again exceeded US $3000 per thousand cubic meters, approaching the historical record of US $3892 per thousand cubic meters set on March 7. On the 23rd, the price of natural gas futures in the United States hit a new high since 2008< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > the comprehensive PMI data of the euro zone in July released on July 23 was 49.2, a new low for 18 months, which shows that the risk of economic recession in the euro zone has increased. In particular, the manufacturing industry of Germany, France and Italy, the three largest economies in the euro zone, has dropped significantly. The market has a strong bearish atmosphere on the euro. Last week, the funds short against the euro have reached a new high in the year< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > not only the euro area, but also other regions are facing the risk of continued economic downturn. The Bank of England has warned that the British economy may fall into recession in the fourth quarter and may last for more than a year. The export data of South Korea, which is known as the “Canary” of the world economy, also performed poorly. The total export in the first 20 days of August increased by only 3.9% year-on-year. It is clear that the global economy faces an increased risk of recession. Under the unexpected tightening of the US Federal Reserve, the interest rate spread further widened, pushing up the US dollar index to “outshine others”< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > the US dollar index continues to rise. Coupled with the domestic interest rate reduction, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is naturally under pressure. Since the mid-term lending facility interest rate was lowered on August 15, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has started to depreciate. Calculated by the closing price of 6.8510 yesterday, it has dropped by more than 1.7%< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > nevertheless, compared with the recent sharp decline in the exchange rates of the euro and the Korean won, the performance of the RMB is still strong on the whole. Most researchers cautioned that the expansion of domestic and foreign interest rate differentials has limited impact on the RMB, and it is not appropriate to pay too much attention to the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB caused by the inversion of China US interest rate differentials. In fact, after the release of China’s foreign trade surplus data in July, there was an obvious replenishment of trading funds. However, after the “interest rate cut” in August, the inversion of interest rate difference between China and the United States intensified, and no obvious outflow of foreign capital was triggered< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > for a long time, the strong basic account surplus has been providing solid support for the RMB. In July, exports increased by 23.9% year-on-year, and the trade surplus reached 682.69 billion yuan. The export growth rate and trade balance in a single month again exceeded the market expectations. We should see that the supply capacity of Europe and other regions has been significantly weakened. With the impact of the energy crisis and the transformation of the energy structure, China’s foreign trade exports have taken on new characteristics. From this perspective, the moderate depreciation of RMB is conducive to maintaining export competitiveness against the background of the global economic downturn, and is of positive significance to maintaining the economic operation within a reasonable range< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > (the original title is “moderate exchange rate fluctuation is conducive to maintaining economic operation within a reasonable range”)