Such inconspicuous drones have stirred up the billion-dollar global oil market, overturning the military and civilian drone market, and exploring the direction of the industry.
Author: Travis
Because of the attack on the Saudi oil facility last weekend, Brent crude oil rose more than 10% on Monday, and the intraday price soared nearly 19%. WTI opened the biggest single-day gain since 1991. At the same time, the Hong Kong stocks and the US oil industry related companies all showed different degrees of increase.
Source: Futu Niu Niu
1. It’s too big to do it on the ground
As a well-known arsenal in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has a complete defense military system, and it is the director of hundreds of companies, bought American warships, Russian aircraft, and China’s Dongfeng Express. “.” But for this attack, these highly sophisticated and tall weapons can’t work.
Because this time the attack is no longer a normal drone, although the drone is inconspicuous compared to the traditional aircraft and cannons, you can get a handful of pieces on the Internet, but you can get it. As can be seen from the satellite photos, several targets such as oil tanks and refinery facilities were accurately hit, and there were no extra craters around, indicating that the precision and effect of the strike were very good through the drone.
At first, the Yemeni Hussein armed forces said that they were responsible for the incident and claimed to have used 10 drones to attack. At present, according to the latest survey results, the United States believes that Iran is using a drone and cruise missiles to work together. But no matter what kind of operation, the drone plays a vital role in this operation.
Source: DigitalGlobe, Futu Niu Niu
This Saudi attack has shown that the traditional radar detection system is a low-and-slow target for drones.If it is not large, and the global anti-UAV technology is relatively immature, this asymmetric warfare can be carried out. It can be said that this inconspicuous guy directly overturned the global oil market worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
The Iraqi government police forces manipulated drones to throw bombs during the war on terrorism
Source: Public Information, Futu Niu Niu
Second, military battlefield, small and big ghosts
The world’s first drone was a wireless remote-controlled drone made by De Havilland in the 1930s, called “The Queen Bee.” The early UAVs were mostly used as target machines for shooting training. With the development of electronic technology and control engineering technology, the functions and applications of drones became more powerful.
The epoch-making Bekaa Valley air battle, Israel successfully used the drone to reconnoiter and guide the fighters. After just 6 minutes of attack, it completely destroyed the 19 Sam’s missiles that Syria and the Soviet Union worked hard for 10 years and cost $2 billion. The position created a miracle in the history of air combat.
The United States then introduced Israeli drone technology and improved it: it was mainly used for intelligence gathering in Vietnam and the Gulf War; in the Afghan war, drones began to undertake combat missions; In the Iraq war, the use of drones is three times that of the Afghan war, and its application is more diversified. It is widely used in combat missions such as battlefield patrols, tactical reconnaissance and special target attacks.
With the reduction of military spending in various countries, the military downsizing, how to spend a small amount of money can complete the task, the advantages and characteristics of the drone are widely explored, and development is welcoming opportunities.
Source: CCTV Financial Review, Futu Niu Niu
1, zero casualties, low cost, low threshold, strong function
The drone is small and convenient, cheap and easy to operate. It is this low cost, low loss, high machineThe characteristics of movement and easy concealment have contributed to the asymmetrical warfare of the small profits and the use of drones to accurately attack high-value targets. The key is to effectively reduce the casualties of combatants, so that governments of all countries attach great importance to the development of drones. .
As drones become more automated and intelligent, the tasks they perform are more complex: flight simulation, intelligence reconnaissance, military strikes, information confrontation, communication relay, airborne warning; but operational and control needs The manpower is getting smaller and smaller. Under the development of the troops to the “fine soldiers” and “efficient”, the advantages of drones will be further highlighted.
2, the United States, Israel, China, three legs
In the military drone market, according to the SIPRI statistics of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the United States, Israel, and China are the three major players in 2008-2017, forming a major supplier. The United States has accounted for the number of drones delivered in recent years. 82% is the leader without any doubt; in the demand market, the Middle East, the United Kingdom and Japan have large purchases. The global military drone market is expected to reach $15.2 billion in 2027.
Source: IHS, Futu Niu Niu
The military drones in China were mainly based on imitating the Soviet Union’s big brother. Due to the deterioration of Sino-Soviet relations in the 1960s, China began independent research and development: in 1967, it successfully developed the “Long Sky One” unmanned drone. Since then, Changhong No. 1, ASN-206, WZ-2000 and other models have come out one after another.
With the reform of our military, the quality and quality of the military have been paid more attention. As a new generation of weapons, drones have become the focus of the ministry and have been rapidly developed. In terms of foreign trade, China’s “Pterosaur”, “Rainbow” and “Lee Sword” have achieved world-class performance and have accumulated good reputation in the international market. From 2007 to 2018, 182 have been exported. Among them, the proportion of customers in the Middle East is over 68%.
CapitalSource: SIPRI, Futu Niu Niu
3, high-end American goods, Israel is practical, China is very competitive
The three major military exporters of military aircraft, the United States due to global mission needs, the main high-speed, high-altitude, long-haul time, dozens of types, is currently developing in the direction of high-end, miniaturization and specialization .
As a start-up country for drone applications, Israel considers its own military environment. UAV applications mainly focus on ground and air force units, and pay more attention to tactical practicality, mainly small and micro.
Although China still has a gap in composite materials and engines compared with European and American countries, due to the high localization rate, the cost advantage is obvious in the mid-end products with strong demand. After the promotion of Zhuhai Air Show in recent years and the actual test of customers in the Middle East , got more and more customers.
Source: Public Information, Futu Niu Niu
Third, the civilian market, a wide range of applications
In addition to military applications, drones are highly reproducible by their services, and their development is hindered by cross-industry development. They have become more and more widely used in the civilian market. Traditional functions such as aerial photography and entertainment have played a bigger role. Applications in agricultural and industrial settings.
1, agriculture and forestry vegetation conservation
Although the agricultural mechanization rate in China has reached 61%, there is a problem of lack of high-end equipment and unbalanced development of agricultural machinery. Especially in the field of plant protection machinery, manual and small machinery are still the mainstay. Manual application equipment accounts for 93.07% of the plant protection machinery. This type of operation mode has heavy labor burden and high strength, and the pesticide is harmful to the human body.
Spraying pesticides through drones not only reduces pesticide poisoning incidents, but also increases efficiency and reduces costs.
According to statistics, the traditional artificial spraying efficiency can only spray 10-20 acres per person per day; but the drone can spray 1-3 acres per minute, 300-400 acres in 4-5 hours; and manual spraying Each acre is 15-20 yuan, and the drone is 8-15 yuan; and the drone is a computer planning route, there will be no problems such as leakage spray and repeated operation caused by manual spraying, which can effectively save water by 90% and save 30% pesticide.
Source: Public Information, Futu Niu Niu
2, power, mapping, police
Because of the vast territory of China, many transmission lines are located in mountainous areas and plateaus with complex terrain and harsh environment. Power inspection requires huge manpower and material resources. The application of power inspection drones can greatly reduce the number of operators. Security risks while improving inspection efficiency.
Similar mapping work, drones can reduce data collection costs with great flexibility and mobility.
In terms of police use, drones can be used in traffic management, fire alarms, and anti-drug investigations to improve work efficiency and reduce operational risks.
Source: iResearch, Futu Niu Niu
Fourth, control the barriers and grasp the development trend
1, core technology needs to master
Unmanned aerial vehicles mainly include: control, navigation, power, takeoff and landing systems, etc. The core technologies of the industry are mainly concentrated in R&D, flight control, power, sensors, navigation, communication and key component manufacturing.
The difficulty of the flight control system lies in the solution of the data delay problem. How to ensure the stability of the drone control and the accuracy and real-time performance of the data transmission will become the primary goal.
The engine of the power unit is the heart of the spacecraft, especially in military drones, which have extremely high requirements for the engine.
Sensor, navigation, and communication technology ensure the user’s manipulation of the drone, which determines the flexibility and accuracy of maneuvering.
Source: WIND, Futu Niu Niu
2, technological progress promotes industrial change
With the development of future communications, energy technologies, and advances in component development, drones will also enter a phase of rapid iteration.
For military purposes, long-term voyage, invisibility, and miniaturization will become the development direction in order to meet operational needs; weapons are modularized, equipped with different equipment, and achieve multi-purpose effects; intelligent development will form human-machine synergy New combat methods such as combat and drone cluster operations.
The film “Top Secret Flight” depicts the scene in which pilots and drones work together
Source: Douban, Futu Niu Niu
The civilian market is currently limited by the airspace control and the imperfect certification system for the safe use of drones, which limits the development speed of the consumer market. With the establishment of relevant regulations and standards, the market will be further released.
In the future of civil UAV technology, intelligence will also be strengthened, especially in the field of obstacle avoidance technology; endurance will be strengthened with the development of battery and fuel technology; cross-industry multi-scenario applications will accelerate development, drones Related insurance, leasing and other ancillary services market is gradually opening up; in terms of industry pattern, enterprises with first-mover advantage will further strengthen industry barriers due to their rich experience in industrial applications.
V. Relevant companies combing
1, military field
At present, the most advanced military drones are from the United States, which were developed by General Atomics and Northrop Grumman, which are jointly developed by General Dynamics. The latter is also the successful development of X-47B. The first “tailless, jet drone” in human history without human intervention, completely computer-controlled, was the first stealth unmanned bomber capable of taking off and landing from an aircraft carrier.
Source: Public Information, Futu Niu Niu
In the domestic aspect, the military enterprises, aerospace academies, and civil squadrons headed by AVIC are responsible for the R&D and manufacturing of drones. As China’s military trade restrictions are relaxed, the demand for customers is strengthened. The foreign trade market continues to expand.
Source: Futu Niu Niu
2, civil market
In the civilian market, consumer-oriented drones are in Dajiang, benefiting from the mature electronic consumer industry chain in the Pearl River Delta and the engineer culture established at the beginning of the company’s creation. Dajiang’s products can be iterated quickly. From Phantom to Mavica, the threshold for use has dropped dramatically, and products have become popular with the average consumer.
Due to the promotion of Dajiang, the domestic drone market is developing rapidly, forming a subdivision leader in specific areas: Guandian defense – anti-drug field, 7-dimensional aerial survey – aerial survey monitoring, Eisenberg – agricultural plant protection; The majors have also entered the game, Tencent and zero cooperation, Xiaomi self-developed, Jingdong mainly logistics, military-related enterprises also launched their own consumer or industrial application drones.
Foreign is mainly represented by Parrot, the company is listed in France; Google and Facebook mainly adopt acquisition means to support other projects of the company; Amazon and Jingdong logic, mainly engaged in the field of drone delivery.
Source: Futu Niu Niu
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