70 city housing prices released: the two-way regulation behind the market gradually declined.
Editor’s note: This article is from China Real Estate , author: Tao Ting, an authorized reprint
China Net Real Estate Tao Ting On October 21, the National Bureau of Statistics released the 70-city housing price index for September. From the data, it can be seen that despite the continuation of the two-way regulation policy, although the prices of some cities such as Shenzhen and Tangshan are still strong, overall, whether it is the first-hand housing or second-hand housing market, the growth rate has narrowed, and the market has gradually cooled down. stable state. Many industry insiders believe that the future property market will continue the two-way regulation policy, which is still based on stability. However, we need to be alert to the loosening of some urban talent purchase policies.
The market gradually declines: the growth rate narrows. Jin Jiucheng Copper Nine
Under the main tone of continuing two-way regulation, the property market entered the off-season with insufficient demand for home purchases, and the property market in September showed a cooling trend. On October 21, the September 70 city house price index released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that among the cities with rising and falling house prices, the number of cities with rising house prices was 40, compared with 43 in August.
Overall, the increase in house prices has narrowed, and the market has gradually cooled down. The “Golden Nine” has become “Bronze Nine”. From the perspective of first-hand housing, the sales price of new commercial housing in September was 53, up by 53 in the previous month, and the number of rising cities decreased for 4 consecutive months. The average increase of the city was 0.75%, which was a month-on-month increase. Narrowed by 0.05 percentage points.
Zhuge looking for housing data analyst Guo Shiying analysis that during the “Golden Nine” period, the new housing market housing companies in order to withdraw funds, have cut prices or discount promotions, so that the growth of new commercial residential sales prices narrowed, or more cities to join Falling ranks.
From the perspective of second-hand housing, in September, except for the sales price of second-hand housing in the first-tier cities increased by 0.1% year-on-year, the sales price of second-hand residential in second-tier cities rose by 4.7% year-on-year, which was 0.6 and 0.8 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; The sales price of urban and second-hand residential houses rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.6 and 0.8 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
Yi Yuejin, director of the Yiju Research Institute, pointed out that the current second-hand housing market has entered the off-season, the demand for home purchases is insufficient, the second-hand housing market is no longer strong, and the previous cooling factors are superimposed, which in turn makes the landlord expect to change, the pricing is relatively calm, second-hand housing The price increase data is not likely to expand, and the actual transaction price will also fall.
But some city prices are still strong, such as the second-hand housing price index roseThe largest Tangshan. According to data from the Yiju Research Institute, Tangshan has been ranked first in terms of rising house prices for two consecutive months. In addition, from the year-on-year increase, Hohhot continues to be the number one city in terms of year-on-year growth in house prices. In the past 11 months, Hohhot’s house price growth has been the highest in the country.
Although the first-tier cities of Shenzhen and Nanjing are also among the list of rising housing prices, the cities with rising housing prices are mainly concentrated in the third line. In addition to Tangshan, there are also cities such as Luoyang, Jilin and Nanning. Among them, Nanning is the city with the largest increase in house price index in September. In addition, from the year-on-year increase, in addition to Hohhot, Dali has also become a city with a relatively high growth rate. Xi’an market price control has achieved initial results, ending the previous nine consecutive months of gains.
Two-way regulation and continuation: Beware of the loose purchase policy of talents
The statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center show that in September, the number of national real estate regulation and control policies was published up to 48 times, and the real estate regulation and control in the first nine months totaled 415 times. It is foreseeable that real estate financial risks are still hidden. In the fourth quarter, the national property market will still be two-way regulation. Cities with stable housing prices will not rule out easing policies, but as long as the rise is obvious, real estate regulation will continue to increase.
Nanning, which ranks first in the 70-city house price index, and Luoyang, the second city. According to the release of the latest issue of China LPR Mortgage Interest Rate Report by Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, Nanjing and Luoyang ranked first and second respectively with 141 and 140 points respectively in the ranking of the first suites in 64 cities in October.
Yan Yuejin analysis pointed out that the higher base points of cities such as Nanning and Luoyang mean that mortgage interest rates will also be higher, which also indicates that such cities are currently implementing more stringent credit policies, which further reflects the housing market. The direction of urban policy, classification and regulation.
In addition to this, we must also be wary of the relaxation of some urban talent purchase policies. According to statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, since September, more than 30 cities have issued various talent introduction policies. In 2019, more than 150 cities across the country have issued various talent policies, which have increased by more than 40% compared with the same period in 2018.
At present, many cities such as Shanghai, Nanjing, Yanjiao and Sanya have already shown signs of loosening their housing purchase policies. For example, in September, the price of first-hand housing prices was still high in Hohhot. Although it had a series of combination punches on September 30, its second-hand housing prices rose for the first time in 10 months in the country. One of its promoters was April. The undergraduate degree or above is a new policy for buying a house at half price.
“From an anticipation point of view, this move may cause subsequent demand for home purchases to continue to be released, which will easily lead to a rebound in housing prices,” said Yan Yuejin, director of the Yiju Research Institute.
Overall, under the premise that CPI continues to operate at a high level and LPR remains stable, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that follow-upIf there is no obvious credit change, the downward trend is expected to continue in 2019. In the future, the property market policy will remain stable, but some regions may also fluctuate at the end of the year.
He pointed out that the property market is strictly regulated, and the patching measures for rising house prices are still coming out. However, if house prices are lowered, it is expected that relative easing will also be introduced.