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一

Seven years ago, a local tyrant who started from Taobao seemed to see through me everything, the overall situation of the e-commerce war will be fixed, that is, Ali and Jingdong are divided into two parts of the world.

He judged the pattern at that time very accurately. Two years later, in May, Jingdong successfully listed in the round after another, but the world’s general trend, long-term must be combined, and the long-term must be divided. The local boss saw two years. In the year, I did not see farther places. He believed that there would be no big opportunities.

The e-commerce trend toward the “oligarch + squad” trend, and evolved into a multi-dimensional, multi-level, multi-platform war, where concentration and fragmentation occur simultaneously.

In the world of e-commerce, someone is happy to make quick money in time, and someone will always harbor the ambition of the empire.

This is like the middle and late period of the Warring States.

The era of China’s post-e-commerce empire has come.

二

According to QuestMobile’s latest China Mobile Internet 2018 Semi-annual Report, the e-commerce industry users are welcoming the second half. The overall user size of the industry is close to 1 billion. The industry’s net increase is only 135 million users.

In 2018, China’s total retail sales exceeded 38 trillion yuan. Consumption has been the first driver of growth for five consecutive years, of which online retail sales exceeded 9 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.9%.

Looking back at the data for 2017, China’s online retail transactions totaled 7.17 trillion yuan, a growth rate of 32.2%. Compared with 2017, we found that the transaction volume of e-commerce in 2018 was 20,000 more than in 2017. More than 100 million. At the same time, in 2018, the proportion of online retail sales of physical goods to total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.4 percentage points over the previous year, and circulation and consumption are still developing in an active and healthy direction.

Alibaba 2018 (2017.3-2018.3) (Ali’s calculation time is not the same as others) The transaction amount is 4.82 trillion. Jingdong was 1.3 trillion in 2017 and 30% year-on-year in 2018, reaching nearly 1.7 trillion yuan.

Ali+Jingdong accounts for about 80% of the overall market size, so the overall market is almost 8.15 trillion. (A few analysts said that Ali has accounted for about 59% of the market last year. This set of data does not represent 100% accurate absolute value, just to illustrate the current market situation)

If today’s overall growth is around 30%, the final market size of e-commerce this year should be around 10.5 trillion.

It really broke through 10 trillion.