Title: Oriental IC, this article is from WeChat public number:China Economy Weekly (ID: ChinaEconomicWeekly), Reporter: Zhou Qi

On November 14, Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail”) will be officially approved The committee reviewed and met in 23 days, setting a record for the IPO.

As China’s “most profitable high-speed rail”, Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail business revenue of 25 billion yuan from January to September 2019, net profit reached 9.52 billion yuan.

In people’s impressions, every time they mention train fares, railway profits and losses, there are always professionals who come out and explain that “passenger does not make money” “all rely on freight subsidies for passenger transport, otherwise the railway losses are more serious”…

Why is the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, which is the main passenger transport business, so profitable? Does the railway passenger transport really lose money?

First, why is the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail making money?

On October 25, Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway disclosed the first prospectus. Its passenger transportation revenue from January to September 2019 was 12.04 billion yuan, accounting for 48.16% of all income; the income from providing road network services was 12.74 billion yuan. , accounting for 50.96% of all income.

In the feedback from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on November 4th, whether the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail is an asset management company has caused heated discussion.

Zhao Jian, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of Beijing Jiaotong University, said in an interview with China Economic Weekly that the current domestic passenger line is basically similar to the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway.It is operated in the form of a high-speed railway company, that is, a network transport separation. The high-speed rail company is invested by the National Railway Group, the railway fund, the local government, etc., and some local governments have a relatively large proportion of capital contribution.

After the establishment of the high-speed railway company, the specific line operation was entrusted to the management of the railway bureaus. The high-speed railway company also charged the line usage fees of the railway bureaus, etc.” Zhao Jian said, “The high-speed rail company has only lines, no cars, no drivers. The flight attendants, these are in the hands of the railway bureau. The high-speed rail company does not have these, and there is no operational capability.”

He introduced that foreign high-speed rail companies are generally integrated operations. “For example, Japan is the most typical. Lines, people, and cars belong to a company. They operate by region, but this model is still difficult to achieve in China.

The Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail prospectus shows that in 2016, 2017, 2018, and January-September 2019, their revenues were 26.257 billion yuan, 29.555 billion yuan, 31.158 billion yuan, and 25.002 billion yuan respectively; net profit was 7.093 billion yuan, 9.053 billion yuan, 10.248 billion yuan, 9.520 billion yuan.

Why is the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail so profitable?

According to the World Bank statistics, the medium-speed high-speed railway passenger flow can be profitable from 35 to 40 million. Sun Zhang, a professor at the Railway and Urban Rail Transit Research Institute of Tongji University who participated in the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail inspection work, said in an interview with the China Economic Weekly that when the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail was accepted, it was estimated that it would take more than 80 million passengers per year. Can achieve profitability.

In 2018, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway sent 192 million passengers across the board, transporting 5.69% of the country’s railway passengers with 1% of the national railway mileage, far exceeding the World Bank’s medium-range high-speed rail profit and loss point.

Zhao Jian told reporters that the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail in addition to the line to send (only within the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail line) train, but also There are a large number of cross-line (originating or final arrival is not within the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail line) train. “Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail not only connects the two metropolises of Beijing and Shanghai, but also the domestic north-south traffic trunk line. For example, the trains going from the northeast to the south, many will pass through the Beijing-Shanghai line, which has increased a lot of income.”

He believes that because most of the passenger flow is a cross-line passenger flow, if only the passenger flow of this line is calculated, the profit pressure of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail will increase sharply.

KingThe high-speed rail prospectus also confirmed this inference.

In 2018, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway opened 39,300 trains and 133,200 trains. Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail said that it is estimated that if the number of trains and trains in this line is 2018, the passenger load factor of the train will reach 15% to achieve breakeven; if the trains are all trains, it should reach 17.25. Wanli, the passenger load factor of 52%, or the operation of 47,700 columns, the passenger load factor of 81.64%, can reach breakeven.

Zhao Jian believes that the current capacity of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail has not been fully utilized. “The speed of trains running on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail is different now, sometimes 300 kilometers, and 350 kilometers per hour. If the speed is 350 The operating chart of kilometers will be more efficient.”

But Sun Zhang also reminded that high-speed rail profit can be divided into “big profit” and “small profit”, “small profit” means that income can offset operating costs, such as labor, electricity, depreciation and other costs, and “big profit” “It also includes investment in railway construction. “The construction cost of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway is about 168 million yuan per kilometer, and the total investment is more than 220 billion yuan. These expenses need to be included in the calculation of ‘big profit’.” p>

Second, high-speed rail has limited room for price increase

In the impression of many people, every rail fare adjustment, there are always experts pointed out that passenger transport is actually losing money. The Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail market, and good profitability, let the outside world have doubts about whether passenger transport is a loss.

In fact, in addition to Beijing-Shanghai, Beijing-Tianjin, southeast coastal railways, most high-speed rail lines are still facing losses.

Taking the high-speed rail passenger flow of Huaibei Station in Anhui Province on the Xiaohuai passenger link line as an example, in July 2019, the Huaibei Station high-speed train sent a total of 68,700 passengers, and the attendance rate was only 30.8%. Among them, the G7698 train to Zhejiang Jiangshan Station has the highest attendance rate of 41%, while the G7294 train to Shanhai has the lowest attendance rate, only 21%. As the contact line of the Xulan high-speed railway, the Xiaohuai passenger transportation line has difficulty in making profits with such a attendance rate.

And even some high-speed rail lines are facing losses.

“For example, the Lanzhou high-speed railway, which has the most serious losses, has only a few trains per day. The construction, maintenance and management costs are almost entirely subsidized.” Zhao Jian said that in economically underdeveloped areas, the population density is small and the number of high-speed rail lines is listed. The attendance rate is low, and the loss is also reasonable. “The running distance of thousands of kilometers in the western region is not the competition of high-speed rail.