This article is from WeChat public account:Qingko Dune Academy (ID:sandhillcollege)< span class = "text-remarks">, author: Hans Tung, from the cover: Oriental IC
On November 8, Tongyuan Capital Management Partner Tong Shihao came to the Dune College opening and graduation ceremony to share his investment experience and analyze and forecast the next billion users of the Internet.
The following content is compiled according to the lecture notes of Teacher Shi Shihao at the Dune College. There are deletions:
Our generation has good luck. In 2004, investing in the Internet was still a low-probability industry. Everyone thought that China’s economic development is so good and there are a lot of offline resources projects. Why invest in Internet projects? No one expected that today will become an era in which the Internet and high technology dominate many things.
If your interests are in the same direction as the rise of society, it is a very happy thing. I moved to China in 2005 and moved back to Silicon Valley in 2013. In 2013, I have more projects in the United States than in China. In the top 15 e-commerce companies in the United States, I voted for four – Wish, Poshmark, OfferUp, Airbnb. In the process, I also saw some changes in the United States. I found that US investment is not so difficult, and China’s competition is fierce. The degree is even more fierce than that of the United States. Some of China’s style of play, whether it’s from the low-end market, is better than the world’s best, or through the vibrato and the little red book, the social factors of the community are added to the e-commerce, added to life. Every subdivision is good. In short, looking at things from different angles, it is possible to do some projects in the United States, and these projects are not noticed by the US VC.
In the past two years, I have also invested in projects in South America and India. They have grown faster than I thought, but there are some challenges that need to be overcome. In the process, I also have a lot of feelings, that is, the world is very flat, and people who live only in one place will not notice a lot of things in common. If you go there enough, many new ideas and ideas come fromThen it happened. Based on this big premise, let’s analyze where the next one billion users are.
1. Where is the “next 1 billion” user?
In the three years from 2019, where is the new user growth? Let’s make a simple comparison of the data and see the changes in 2009-2018.
In 2009, Alibaba’s “Double Eleven” was launched for the first time. That day was a $8 million GMV, which became 4,000 times in ten years. At the same time, in the United States, the so-called “Black Friday” plus “Online Shopping Monday” shopping, two days together, the GMV in 2009 was 2 billion US dollars, 10 years later became 8 billion US dollars, up four Times. For the United States, where economic growth is relatively slow, 2 billion to 8 billion is already a good decade. It also proves that the trend of going offline is irreversible.
Why is China having a 4000-fold increase in this decade? Many people say that because of the demographic dividend or the higher Internet penetration rate, in 2009, Internet users in China had nearly 400 million. Of course, it was not a smartphone at that time, mainly relying on ADSL, but by 2018 ADSL plus Smartphones are only 800 million people, so they only doubled. If you only doubled, why is the “Double Eleven” so different? People who have experienced this era know that it is because everyone has formed the habit of online shopping. Alipay and WeChat payment are very popular. User behavior has changed, and the country has developed better. Naturally, there will be a huge room for growth.
So, where will the next 1 billion new users be in the next decade? At the same time, which countries are likely to experience the same changes as China, and can have the next 4000 times investment opportunities? If you look at it briefly, India, Indonesia, Brazil, and Mexico are the most likely.
user characteristics: younger, urban, using only mobile devices, familiar with information technology since childhood
New users basically have certain characteristics. First, very young, 50% of users are under 20, young people are willing to try new products, which brings more opportunities to new companies. Going to change their habits; second, everyone is using mobile devices, so China’s decade of experience in the mobile Internet has an opportunity to play a role in these countries.
The market is mature enough to be digitally transformed
We look at it from another perspective, whether this country has reached the stage of growth near the point of the explosion.
In general, when the per capita GDP reaches 4,000 yuan, it is an era when e-commerce begins to develop rapidly. In 2009, the “Double Eleven” was launched for the first time, when China was just at that time.
With this experience, we look at other countries and regions, and to what extent their current economic level has developed. Indonesia has reached a similar stage; Brazil has already surpassed this stage long ago, but its economic growth has been slow for three or four years, and we made a prediction that through the popularity of the mobile Internet, Brazil’s future market still has room for development; India seems to have a relatively low GDP per capita, so in India everyone is more concerned about the top 200 million or 300 million users, the per capita GDP of this group of users is relatively high, this is the station Look at things from the perspective of to C.
wide growth space
From an investment perspective, we have to see which market has reached a stage where it can grow rapidly.
We compare the amount of venture capital funds in the whole country in 2018 and find that Southeast Asia, Latin America and India have different advantages. However, depending on the current number of unicorns, India is clearly the highest. Last year, there was only $8 billion in investment, but there are already 19 unicorns, and this year has become even higher. Of course, there may be some puffiness in the market, because the economy has not yet reached the scale, but everyone is optimistic that it may be the next China, so give him money too early, raise the valuation too early, although not every company can succeed in the end. Exit, but still a market worthy of attention.
Two, one day in our lives
We stand in the perspective of user habits, and compare the five places of the United States, China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia in terms of transportation, take-out, payment, and shopping. We found that there are many in these countries. The objects, means and purposes of products and services are relatively similar.
