How to find the opportunity to overtake?
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “Qingshan Capital” (ID :cyanhillvc), author Ai Xiao.
The just-concluded Double Eleven Shopping Festival, in 2019, the Tmall double eleven turnover was locked at 268.4 billion yuan, a new record. Double 11 ignited the excitement of many people, but for many consumer brands, behind the seemingly prosperous is a more cruel surviving reality: online traffic growth peaks, customer costs continue to rise, and consumers are more Picky, more price-sensitive – under the predicament of the Internet, the new consumer brands find new opportunities to survive, develop and even overtake in the cracks, which is the proposition of all brand entrepreneurs to think and explore.
The author observes and analyzes some of the emerging consumer brands that have successfully broken through, and finds that there are many common features, so I would like to summarize and share my views.
Everything in clothing, food, housing, and travel has emerged in recent years, but it has grown rapidly. The volume can reach several hundred million yuan or even dozens of sales in a short period of time (2-3 years). A new brand of 100 million yuan. Their rapid growth, apart from their own team strength, supply chain capabilities, product capabilities, marketing capabilities, etc., more importantly, cut the category with strong demand, but the supply is not sufficient, accurate positioning, and target The understanding of the crowd is very profound. So small to subcategories, big to the industry, how to choose the category that is suitable for the team’s genes and can grow rapidly?
The author believes that the core is to grasp the changes in the needs of the crowd, and the need for opportunities at the track level is roughly divided into the following categories:
01 Meet the old needs of the new population and find structural opportunities in the stock
There is a need for food, clothing, housing and transportation. It is a must for everyone of every age and every age. As the social demographic structure is constantly evolving, the new young people’s group has grown stronger and become the main force of brand consumption. The growth environment after 90s and 00 is completely different from the previous generation, which leads to its value orientation, consumption habits and aesthetic taste. different. Most of the traditional brands in the existing industry are based on the needs of the older generation of consumers. If they are not transformed or reformed unsuccessfully, they will not be able to meet the inherent needs of the new population. This has led to the emergence of new brands that cater to the tastes of young consumers in the most traditional industries such as catering, food, clothing, and home, although it is still satisfying the “old needs” of young people.
For example, young people no longer favor ZARA, H&M and other international fast fashions, and embrace new fashion forces such as national tides and designer brands. But their own needs have not changed in essence, or they are pursuing good looks and Cost-effective productIn the clothing industry, the brand has changed from generation to generation; the possible category opportunity here is to create a new brand like “Young ZARA/H&M”.
Meeting the “old needs of new people” often requires the team to fully understand young people and younger genes, because such needs are often “easy to understand”: the logic is very simple, but it is difficult to grasp Live the heat and taste. In fact, we all know that the younger generation needs new clothing brands, food brands, catering brands, content brands, but which team can do the best? If there is a good team to run out, after the completion of 0 to 1, the growth of the brand has a strong predictability. After the steady development, the winner of the category can basically achieve the total volume; Its growth curve is often relatively smooth.
02 Meet the new needs of the new crowd and find new incremental categories
The new generation of consumers not only grows in different socio-economic and cultural environments, but also the technological environment. The advance popularity of the mobile Internet and social media has caused new people to have the demand that was not available when the old generation was young. For example, there are booming toys represented by “blind boxes” or the whole pet industry represented by the fire. These are new demands of new people outside the traditional industry. They are not in the popular understanding of the food, clothing, housing and transportation sectors. It’s hard to predict, but for new brands, there is a greater chance to achieve “changing overtaking” because a new industry means there are no mature old players. The new brand may have a first-mover advantage, but beware of big companies. Cross-border strikes.
It is actually very difficult to judge whether the “new demand for new people” really exists or is short-lived. For example, “meal replacement” is a new category demand that has appeared in recent years. The growth rate in the early stage is very fast, but it is very difficult to judge the ceiling. If the imagination space is very large, it is of course a good category opportunity; if it is only one If you are not strong enough for short-term needs, then there may be a lack of stamina.
If you want to choose such a category, you need the team to have a strong sense of smell + execution, find the right direction, polish the product, verify the sales model, use the leverage of capital to quickly occupy the category, preemptive. Because such a demand is successfully verified, the market is exploding very fast, and there are more new players, and the teams are killing each other. In the end, only the head is left; the growth curve tends to be slower and faster.
03 Meet the needs of the old people to upgrade, look for opportunities to upgrade the old category
The so-called “old crowd” here refers to middle-aged and elderly people whose living conditions, consumption concepts and habits have stabilized. Despite the stable demand characteristics, the emergence of new technologies and new scenes has made some of the original category supply no longer able to meet their new pain points, thus stimulating the birth of new categories. Take the recent controversial e-cigarette as an example. In fact, it meets not only the new needs of young people, but also the new needs of middle-aged people. It is also a huge market. As long as the conversion is upgraded, a small part is produced. The new industry; similarly, the smart home represented by Xiaomi and the electric car brand represented by Weilai Automobile, which has recently been riddled with the rumors, have also become the new requirements for the middle-aged people with strong spending power to pursue the quality of life. reflect.
The demand of the old crowd, supported by a large consumer base with strong payment capacity, is often extremely rich in market size and imagination. It is a trillion-trillion-class track. Once there is an opportunity for upgrading, By grasping it, you will be able to create “an old category that looks like a new product.” If you cut this kind of demand, the test of team resources and energy is comprehensive and huge, because in this market, there are always old brands and big brands that are always eyeing, and there are a large number of new brands with background and strength to enter the market. Lin Li, old and new, so it is not suitable for newcomers to enter the industry, the risk is extremely high, but the upper limit is also extremely high. It should be noted that the study of such categories often requires consideration of the influence of policy factors. The growth of such brands tends to fluctuate a lot, sometimes even exploding, or falling off the cliff.
Of course, there are also some brands that belong to the cross category, and can cut two or even three of them at the same time, so its explosive growth is foreseeable, such as like tea, perfect diary.
As a new brand entrepreneur, you should first review the situation, understand the current market opportunities, what kind of needs should be cut into what kind of people, in order to be targeted; more importantly, due to the different types of team capacity requirements Focusing on, the growth curve is also very different. Entrepreneurs can select different needs according to their own team genes, accurately locate and match the corresponding operational strategies, and can do more with less, and improve the success rate of entrepreneurship.
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