Before each change comes, there will be in-depth adjustments and shuffles, and every time a trough is brewing, a big opportunity is either missed or lost.

Author Guo Jianwu, Managing Partner of Wealth Capital; released with authorization.

Now the capital is very cold. It’s time to hibernate or to get rid of it. I believe this is the answer that many people want. Before each change comes, there will be in-depth adjustments and shuffles, and every time a trough is brewing, a big opportunity is either missed or lost.

Last night, a very respected early investor came to me to talk to me late at night, and I was very anxious, saying that the capital winter is really cold, it is cold everywhere, and even more frightening is that many big cafes have judged that the winter will continue at least For 2-3 years or longer, she is recommended to switch or reduce her business and survive first.

And last night she happened to see an article I posted. I said that vaguely feels a new round of bonuses and opportunities are coming. She asked me why I think so? Recently, she participated in a roadshow of entrepreneurship in a well-known university in Beijing. As a result, none of the projects are worthy of attention. There are thousands of investment institutions in Beijing, and few investors actually come. She asked me what I thought? Is it the project winter or the capital winter? Should entrepreneurial counseling or angel investment retreat from the rapids and retreat, or continue to persist, wait until the winter passes, and take off the jacket to welcome spring?

How to use

I think whether it is a venture capital institution, an independent investor, or an entrepreneur, I want to get the answer, including myself. In order to think clearly and see clearly, I have just left from the horse racing capital that I have served for many years (I am very grateful to the horse racing capital for giving me a battle-proven platform), I want to change my identity and perspective, away from the noise and impetuousness, empty Some experience and universal consensus, go back to the original point and original intention, and find the answer.

Ba Lao once said, “Other people are horrified, I am greedy; others are greedy, I am horrified.” This phrase has profoundly affected the world, and many people are still fighting and fighting in the adversity. But I haven’t thought about how to understand this sentence, what is the intention behind this sentence? What’s the background? What’s the logic behind it? Are there any prerequisites? What is the goal? What conflicts with universal consensus? Since it is so universal, why are there few people who can emerge from adversity? Most people “I am greedy”, but the result is not good, or even worse. Why?

In fact, everyone recalls that when I heard this sentence, most of them were a crisis and a cold winter.The successful people talked a little while sharing their experiences, sometimes with a weird smile. Why? Because there is a process and a story behind it. He may or may not say it, but few people will take the initiative to ask or think about the above question, because this is a very simple consensus.

Consensus is important, but it is also very harmful because universal consensus often makes people ignore thinking. Brain research finds that the reason why a person nods and agrees when listening to other people ’s opinions, and remembers his words, not because he is really right (many times is indeed true), but because you subconsciously identify with him Ideas, so I remember, over time, people slowly solidify and form their own experience and cognition. So when ordinary people hear the literal meaning, they feel that they “know” and do not want to think further because I “understand”.

Is this true? In my opinion, this is exactly the key to success or failure! !!

I just started investing in a cutting-edge technology project-Digital Twins. I think of it as Industry 5.0. Few people can really understand the extension of digital twins. Many technologies simply think that it is 3D simulation modeling. I do n’t want to ask one more question. Of course, I do n’t want to explain more. The founder of this project was once the deputy general manager of a certain high-tech field in China. His technology can be said to be an upgraded version of the digital twin technology advocated by academicians. His WeChat signature shocked me, “I know, I don’t understand”. The simple four words made me worship immediately. I must invest in him and work with the elite. I often invest in projects that others do n’t understand or deny. I hope to discover the value of the project from a unique perspective. This may be one of the important reasons I can invest in unicorn projects.

“Others are horrified, I am greedy; others are greedy, I am horrified”, counted by many as the secret to success. Some savvy investors once underwent thorns under this sentence and were regarded as great gods by the world; there are also countless ordinary people who have encouraged themselves with this sentence at the same time, but they have not survived and have been forgotten by history. Why can a great god become a great god, ordinary man or ordinary man? If this sentence is the truth, then why are these same great gods, in the waves of new eras of change in today’s waves, failing one after another, gradually fading away, and gradually step down from the altar? What’s the difference?

I understand this sentence and want to say: In the situation of chaos, see the situation clearly, recognize the situation, raise awareness, adjust the direction, there is always a chance! !!

In my opinion, this sentence is often misunderstood:

Misunderstanding 1: “Others fear, I am greedy”, greed is to insist. As long as you stick with it, (simple) fight your body, fight your perseverance, rely on your feelings, and hang on the beam, you will one day be moved by God.

Unfortunately Didi said that this is just an inspirational story told by a childhood teacher. We graduated from elementary school.

ActuallyI am quite opposed to the persistence of the brain. Many investors often say that when they look at entrepreneurial projects, they must persist and be determined, and use this to judge whether to invest. I dare to say that this is definitely a wrong child. I have personal experience and lessons. I have a say.

I have been an Internet entrepreneur for 8 years. I persisted and determined like many entrepreneurs. After the money was burned out, I resolutely, regardless of my family’s objection to selling a house or car, ruined many childhood happiness and fond memories of family children (so far Are guilty), so tired and tired. In the end, my family cried once and finally woke me up.

Until now, I only knew from the perspective of investors that the B2B e-commerce platform is not an ordinary individual entrepreneur who is able to rely on feelings, not to mention that in 2007, there were no even cross-border e-commerce terms. The odds are very small. At that time, I did n’t understand: If the business is difficult, you keep burning money, and you do n’t have a strong financing ability to support it, you ca n’t reflect on the cause, and there is a dead end ahead. Many people around you can see clearly. Treating entrepreneurship as your own child’s hard work and perseverance is tantamount to giving up death, that is, brain damage.

Fortunately, I wake up in time to have today, otherwise I would not be able to point around like this today, “Standing without back pain.” Now you can also ask investors who insist on you. In the cold winter of capital, who will sell a house or a car and simply stick to it? Do n’t do it to others. Many times I see some entrepreneurs who have gone astray. I told them bitterly to give up. Do n’t waste time and money. Unfortunately, sometimes entrepreneurs say I do n’t understand. Haha ,Ok.

What we want is not the persistence of the brain, not “greedy” for greed, or gambling luck, but the ability to “live to death”. This is my investigation of the founder when investing in VC angel projects One of the core competencies. According to statistics: more than 40% of the projects that have been financed now live well because later the founders correctly adjusted the business direction and model of the project as the market changed.

Misunderstanding 2: Greed is what you were doing before

Don’t even think about it. The reason is that it is a cold winter, it is a chaotic situation, and the uncertainty is increasing. It means that the competitive environment and factors have changed. Your resource, flow, cash, and profit advantages are gone. The old routine and the old style of play must be more difficult, more costly, and less effective, so you must adjust your business direction and model.

So how do you adjust it?

Since funds are the core, we need to make adjustments around the new financing logic in the new period. Without bullets, no investment is possible. (Here only talks about the funds raised from the mother fund and LP, only rational investment; not about direct investment of own funds, not about feelings. Remember, the source of funds is different, and the investment logic and play style are very different. ). On the surface, the market is running out of money, from FOF to LP to listed companies.Backwaters; economic and trade frictions are short-term losses, but in the long run, they give China a chance, because there are many Chinese people and a large market; the uncertainty of currencies and assets around the world, which country is more at risk, and which country is relatively safe, carefully You can see from the analysis; there is always hot money for profit, always looking for local value preservation and appreciation, looking for the safest and credible asset investment, and looking at who else is there, so I am not so pessimistic.

Finally, VC angel investment itself needs to be started 1-2 years earlier than traditional PE investment institutions, otherwise it is not a good VC, and it is the dish of PE and IPOs when the media exposes that it has reached the mature stage.

For example: I invested in the North American PWA enterprise service platform in early 2015; I invested in AI robots (now well-known in China) at the end of 2015; I invested in a mobile Internet social platform (now a quasi-unicorn) in 2016; I invested in blockchain + supply in 2018 Chain finance project (already filed by the Internet letter office); investment in digital twin projects in 2019; in 2020, maybe you are waiting for you, haha. Imagine that with the trust of the master, with the unique ability to discover good projects, with good projects, study hard, and follow the party, you will magically find that after the advantages and disadvantages of hedging and the time, add capital to the winter to make assets Value returns, the timing is just right, everything is the best arrangement, isn’t it?

What will be the next wave of dividends and air outlets? This is what VCs often think about. I don’t know if it is technical or luck. All these years I have been thinking about the question: Where do good projects come from? In fact, this is also very important. Contests, building sweeping, FA, friend introductions, online search, or fate or luck, think about this first, plus the ability to see, I hope that the next one is you.