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In 2019, with the official launch of Google ’s Stadia cloud gaming platform, cloud gaming is back in the public eye. Major domestic and foreign companies have entered the cloud games one after another, injecting a new vitality into the unpredictable gaming industry. Since mid-to-late this year, cloud game concept stocks have experienced varying daily limits. At the same time, with the advent of the 5G era, cloud gaming, as a new 5G application field, has also attracted high attention.

Domestic operators, cloud service providers, hardware vendors, and content vendors are rapidly deploying cloud games in different ways. As the vanguard of cloud games, Tencent has released three cloud game platforms (START, Tencent Travel and Tencent Instant Play), cloud game service platform GameMatrix, and Tencent Cloud also launched cloud game solutions.

Similar scenes have appeared in 2010. At that time, Netflix, the largest DVD rental service company in the United States, publicly stated that it would send all of its content and architecture to the cloud, no longer build its own database, and compete with Amazon Prime on the same market in the global market.

This “crazy” decision has laid a solid technical foundation for Netflix’s global expansion. Today, all Netflix data uses cloud storage, with more than 158 million users worldwide. It has become the world’s largest streaming media giant in one fell swoop. This achievement is largely due to the original cloud strategy.

The cloud game seems to be coming from a huge wave, but it is still under question.

On December 9th, at the Tencent Cloud Media Open Day-Cloud Game Session, Yu Dian, a researcher at Tencent Research Institute and Li Yutao, general manager of Tencent’s video cloud business, analyzed the current status and future development of the cloud gaming market. The two guests exchanged some questions on the cloud gaming market.

Why cloud games?

As we all know, the characteristics of cloud games are configuration-free, download-free, and cross-terminal. The problem it needs to solve for the industry is to save players money, labor, and trouble.For a high-quality gaming experience, this means that cloud games must guarantee a lower latency and better game quality.

In other words, masterpieces of 3A-level games and online multi-player online game masterpieces on the cloud game platform must not only give players a smoother gaming experience, but also ensure that the game ’s graphics and sound quality are not lost. This game experience (local data + network data transmission) depends on the terminal device.

Tencent Research Institute ’s “Cloud Game Industry Development and Trend Report” points out that cloud strategy is a successful element of future Internet development and has great reference value for the development of today’s game industry.

Cloud gaming has injected a new powerful gene into the game industry: hardware is no longer a puppet, and the three ends of the host, PC and mobile phone are integrated. This new gene will bring fundamental changes to the industry, and the player ’s experience model and The payment models are facing drastic changes.

Just as smartphones were just on the rise, it’s hard to imagine that today’s mobile games are full of flowers and many categories. Changes in the game’s own model will greatly expand the boundaries of game innovation, new interaction methods and game types will emerge in the next few years, and user robbing will be fiercer than ever.

Although the prospect of cloud games seems very broad, judging from the market development of this year and the market forecast of authoritative organizations for the next few years, the situation is not very optimistic.

The IDC’s “2020 Global Smart Terminal Trend Forecast” report recently pointed out that the number of global cloud game paying users in 2020 will not exceed 10 million. Newzoo’s cloud gaming research report also pointed out that the potential number of cloud gaming users will increase to 124 million in 2022. Obviously, the growth rate of cloud gaming users, especially paying users, is unlikely to show explosive growth in the short term of 3-5 years. This means that joining cloud games at this moment will face huge and long-term cost investment.

Even so, Yu Dian believes that cloud games are the key position for the game industry competition. She told Gamewower: “Cloud games are a genetic evolution of the game industry. In the future, cloud games will become the key position for the game industry competition. Occupy the cloud game market, it is more likely to grasp the lifeblood of the game industry in the future. “

Li Yutao believes that 2020 is the year of the outbreak of cloud games, and the interpretation of the outbreak has many directions. It may be in a certain application scenario and truly usher in unique value. He said, “In fact, the game market has been developing rapidly. Chinese game netizens have a scale of about 500 million, and cloud games are in a subscription mode.In this scenario, it may gradually eat away and replace part of the existing game market share.

There are still many users who have not touched the game, but the birth of cloud games can promote them to become game users. This is very similar to the one or two hundred million video users on our mobile phones. However, due to the emergence of vibrato and fast hands, a large number of four or five lines Urban users are also starting to watch short videos. “

“We think that in the next 5 years, China’s cloud gaming market will be a rapidly developing market. It will not only reshuffle and distribute the original gaming market, but also tap into businesses other than the previous gaming market. Opportunity. “Li Yutao said.

Future challenges and risks of cloud gaming

As a new technology, cloud gaming will face risks and challenges in the future.

According to Yu Dian, the future promotion of cloud games will encounter three challenges:

First, the infrastructure may not be fully covered. The necessary infrastructure for cloud gaming is fixed and mobile broadband networks, but not all countries can achieve full coverage of mobile networks and high-bandwidth support. Most countries, including China and the United States, need large-scale infrastructure improvements; p>

Second, stable high-speed network. The smooth experience of cloud gaming requires stable high-bandwidth network support. The 4G network can support some games that require less bandwidth, such as cards, MMOs and other casual games, and non-real-time mobile games. 5G scenarios can support more types of games.

But at present, China ’s average network bandwidth will bring some restrictions to the development of cloud games. Because the quality of China ’s broadband network is significantly different from the northwest to the north and south, it will Development has a certain impact.

Third, the lack of standard transmission protocols. There is currently no standard data transmission protocol formed between multiple cloud platforms around the world. Cloud games lacking a standard data transmission protocol are difficult to transfer data between different platforms. The data transmission methods between different cloud systems and different terminals are currently different to some extent. In the future development of cloud games, industry-standard cloud service network communication protocols are required to support data flow between different cloud platforms.

Cloud games face huge long-term development costs and exploration of commercialization models. As an emerging technology, cloud game development is difficult and costly. At present, there are three main aspects of development costs: the first is the cost of technology research and development, the second is the construction cost of ultra-large-scale servers, and the third is the hardware cost brought by bandwidth upgrades.

According to Google, the Stadia cloud gaming platform will become one of Google’s important strategic directions. It is estimated that USD 13 billion will be invested in infrastructure construction and capital expenditure in 2019.

From the current situation, the commercialization models of various manufacturers are still in the exploration stage. Although most platforms choose to charge by subscription mode, the price of less than $ 20 per month is far from profitable. How can cloud gaming platforms recover costs?It is a problem that every manufacturer must solve.

Cloud games will also face data security and user privacy issues. Under the cloud computing architecture, the owner and custodian of user data are separated, and the ownership and data of the data are separated. Who protects the data security of cloud users? In addition to preventing data leakage and damage, it is also necessary to prevent misappropriation of user data. Facing the crisis and data security requirements that cloud data security may face, it is necessary to accelerate the establishment of cloud computing user data protection standards and trust systems.

Future applications of cloud games: live streaming, interactive, Internet cafes, etc.

Besides the challenges of cloud gaming technology and market environment, the advent of cloud gaming has an impact on an industry and even its shuffle. Gamewower believes that it is mainly manifested in the following aspects:

First, click to play, players can enter 3A games in just a few seconds, 4K, 60 frames of high-quality 3A game screens, players can quickly experience. In addition, cloud-based trial scenes, such as Yingbao and OPPO Game Center, can help players make better decisions. Before choosing whether to download a game, players can experience the simplified version of the cloud game first, and then decide whether to download. This cloud trial mode can improve the retention rate of the game and reduce the cost of game downloads.

Second is a new way of interaction. In traditional live broadcasts, the main way of interaction between the anchor and the player is to reward and watch the interaction. The new interaction mode brought by the cloud game is that the player can join the anchor’s game progress and play with the anchor. Such an interactive method is unprecedented, and will overturn the current game live broadcast platform.

Further, it is a change in the content format of the video platform. One of the advantages of cloud games is that the data transmission process is originally watching movies, and the screen does not undertake touch operations during the game. In other words, as long as the video website works properly, the cloud gaming service can run.

In recent years, video platforms represented by Tencent Video are trying to launch interactive movies / episodes, a new form of video content. This form of content emphasizes interaction, and scene-based interaction between users and content. The most representative pioneer is Black Mirror.

In the field of games, the new game form that mainly appears in multi-line plots and interactions in the past two years is called interactive plot games. The two common gameplay methods in online games are PVP and PVE. If the future of cloud game services is maturely applied to video platforms, then the form of content is expected to show human-to-human, human-to-scene interaction.

Like domestic iQiyi, Tencent Video, Youku, and major game live streaming platforms, such as Douyu, Huya, and even short video platforms, such as Douyin, the areas where they have the ability to provide video services are all cloud games. The business development scenario has covered hundreds of millions of existing users, and Chinese players have been able to actually use cloud games through video sites.

In addition, Li Yutao proposed the concept of cloud Internet cafes. Used to operate an Internet cafe / Internet cafe,Venue and hardware are inevitable costs. If you use cloud game services, you do n’t need to buy a computer host in the future. You only need to buy a monitor and router box to connect to the cloud game. You can package all daily games with computing nodes. The Internet cafe model may greatly reduce the operating costs of chain cafes / Internet cafes in the future.

How do cloud game content providers account?

Google, the protagonist of this year’s cloud game, has fired a dumb gun.

In November, Google ’s Stadia officially ushered in public beta. Although there are many great works such as “Mortal Kombat 11”, “Final Fantasy 15”, “Tomb Raider: Shadow”, “Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey” and other great works, word of mouth is still unprecedented. Waterloo. Many Western media have a bad review of Stadia. Some people have commented on Stadia in this way. It is not known whether the cloud game is a chance, but Google Stadia must not be able to do it.

When talking about Satdia ’s reputation decline, Yu Dian said: “The delay is high and it is particularly expensive. I originally thought that spending $ 9.99 or $ 20 a month can have a very good gaming experience, but later I found that it costs 149 If you buy a device in USD, you have to pay for the game separately. Suppose a player already has a $ 200 PS4 and has spent more than $ 80 on Wilderness 2. Is it necessary to buy a Stadia device? Obviously it is not necessary , This is bound to usher in a great decline in word of mouth, but I personally think that word of mouth can still come back. “

The Google Satdia incident did make many people hesitate about cloud games, but it was not the root cause of questioning cloud games. In fact, from the beginning, many players, especially console players, did not pay for cloud games.

Because these host players have at least one host device, they choose the game platform according to the game works. Now the games that the cloud game platform can play, they can also play on other host platforms, so there is no need to switch to the cloud game platform.

Moreover, the current hardware equipment configuration and performance are already very high, and the price is very low. The speedup in bandwidth also meets the normal demand for games. Facing an emerging game platform, new game formats, and cloud games Without being mature enough to become mainstream, the willingness to try as a player is very low.

For game makers, their willingness is even more important. Porting is not costly for game manufacturers, as long as the cloud gaming platform is willing to pay a fee, and as long as the pricing does not affect mainstream gaming platforms and already paidPlayers (the cloud gaming platform is mainly a subscription model), then they are still willing to cooperate with the cloud gaming platform.

But porting is an early and excessive approach. What about these game vendors, especially domestic game vendors, ’s willingness to develop cloud-native games? In fact, what is affecting them now is ROI, and the input-output ratio is not worth it.

Limits on the size of cloud game users. Even if you develop a masterpiece of native games, that’s just fine. Perhaps the cloud gaming platform will find some big manufacturers to customize cloud gaming products and pay a fee, but this model has restricted game manufacturers and cloud gaming platforms from the beginning.

One is how much money a cloud game platform can spend each year to find game manufacturers to develop games. Good game creation cycles are very long, as short as two or three years, and as long as five or six years. Can customized game works be launched on the cloud game platform?

Secondly, compared with the normal investment and R & D to distribution operations, the game customized development model does not form a healthy closed loop of the industry chain. If the number of cloud game paying users cannot grow rapidly, this will be a long-term Money burning behavior. Third, the number of manufacturers that can get cloud game platform custom development is extremely limited. What should other vendors do?

R Star ’s Wilderness 2 has been developed by 2,000 people. It took 8 years of R & D and cost 800 million US dollars. Although it was paid back in the first month, the ROI is still too low and the labor cost is too large. Calculating the life cycle, the ROI of the console game may be 3 times. However, Chinese games are not played this way, investing tens of millions of R & D costs, which takes one to two years, and the ROI is 200% to 300% within a few months.

Therefore, large domestic companies generally do not do 3A stand-alone games, but they will encourage some small and medium-sized companies to do so. Small and medium-sized companies will do relatively low ROI types. Although the quality is not up to 3A, these games meet the needs of Chinese users. However, this brings another problem, that is, the version number. The version number is still in short supply. Instead of making a cloud game at this stage, why not choose a mobile game? This account is clearly understood by game manufacturers.

What should cloud games in China look like?

Therefore, Gamewower believes that at this stage when we promote the development of cloud games in China, we should figure out four questions: Who are the users of cloud games? What kind of content does a cloud gaming platform need? What kind of people are the manufacturers of content? How to monetize?

Li Yutao divides cloud game users into heavy players, ordinary players and indifferent players. He said: “Undeniably at the current stage, because the technology is immature and the conditions are not mature, the scenarios that cloud games can achieve are very limited. , May not be able to meet the needs of these three types of players, over time we predict that several may appear, the first exclusive cloud game, or a unique game cloud game appears.

The second is the combination of cloud games and other social media. This will definitely attract mid-range or lower-end players, because they watch short videos and live broadcasts every day, and maybe one day they will become cloud games. Users.

In the future, it may gradually eat away the middle part. I may also spend money on game consoles and users who buy genuine games. He found that cloud games are everywhere. I bought cloud games and bought console games. The difference is small, the cost is not much different or even cheaper. Why don’t I buy a cloud game, just like watching a video site now may not hesitate to open a member, maybe 10 years ago, everyone did not have the motivation to open. “

From the perspective of industrial ecology, the domestic and foreign markets, especially China and the United States and China and Europe, have completely different game market patterns and user patterns. More than 80% of users in China are mobile game users, while more than 70% of users in Europe and the United States are host users. Cloud games are developed based on the entire game market. There are a large number of games familiar to players on the cloud game platform, such as MMO terminal games, and some mobile games. Google Satdia has more console games.

“What kind of games are we thinking of at this time for Chinese players? Chinese gamer evaluations are really rudimentary, why? They have n’t completed the level of game appreciation and fixed game tendencies. Our Chinese games are very social. This is a feature, but it is both our advantage and our disadvantage.

When the cloud game arrives, when the end-to-end gap between the PC host and the mobile phone is broken, we may face one point, which is the dimensionality reduction blow from the host game. Our defensive line is our user’s habit. . “

“Last year we mentioned the concept of” Chinese games need to be paid for production. “Otherwise, in the face of future development, we cannot take the blow from powerful manufacturers such as Ubisoft, but our gameplay, including operations, still has a unique advantage. So as far as Chinese cloud games are concerned, we are providing moderate players, light players with trial play, or a good publicity entrance in the early stage of cloud games. Let ’s try it first. ”Yu Dian said.

Yu Dian believes that due to the differences between Chinese and foreign markets and user forms, the development of China’s cloud games must suit China’s national conditions. At the same time, in order to deal with the dimensionality reduction blow from major foreign manufacturers, China’s cloud games must be geared to light and medium Duo players provide trial play, this is a better entry point in the early days.

At the same time, she also talked to Gamewower about the current situation of cloud game developers. She said, “From our perspective, there seems to be no small factory developing a cloud game from scratch on the cloud game platform. Big factories migrate existing games here and try to test the water. After the basic business model runs through, they may consider how to invest in cloud native games, and then gradually drive a wave of small and medium developers to follow the trend and make some entrepreneurial games . “

Summary

Cloud games are still in their early stagesIn the past, cloud gaming technology is a technology that may continue to develop for decades. It still has some difficulties in real implementation. It takes time. Game companies are not making money so fast. Gamewower is relatively cautious about the market development of cloud games in the next three to five years, but its long-term attitude is positive.

As Yu Dian, a researcher at Tencent Research Institute and Li Yutao, general manager of Tencent’s video cloud business, said that the outbreak of cloud gaming requires three prerequisites. The first is to keep up with the software and hardware foundation; the second is to wait for the explosion of money. What is the cloud game explosion? A high probability is native cloud games; the third is user habits, waiting for users to develop game habits and consumption habits.

Although this stage is at a stage of long-term money burning and business model exploration, cloud computing service vendors and hardware vendors such as Tencent Cloud should invest in nurturing the market first. Now it is more difficult to shuffle China’s game market by cloud games. It requires not only users but also high-quality content. For investors, cloud games have their own pace of development, and we need to wait patiently for opportunities.