Title Map | Visual China
Although I rarely talk about the overall market, today I want to make an exception. At the beginning of the new year, it is also good to have a year-round outlook. First, you can temporarily jump out of individual stock thinking, and take a macro view of the market’s opportunities and risks in the future. Second, you can sort out your own ideas.
My habit is to top-down the industry configuration first, and then select individual stocks, which are generally divided into white horse stocks (including large consumer and pharmaceuticals), technology stocks (including TMT and advanced manufacturing), financial real estate and cyclical stocks. In the large sector, the allocation ratio is dynamically adjusted according to the conditions required by the industry to trigger. Therefore, this article will also analyze the opportunities and risks of these four sectors this year, each of which has a core issue.
In addition to the industry opportunities, we must finally imagine some possible negative events. This kind of difficult to prevent risks will actually affect half of the yield.
Question 1: Can white horse stocks rise again?
A shares have always been regarded as a “casino.” You took money to start a business and lost it. Friends will encourage you to “restart from scratch”; but if you take money to lose stocks, friends will only persuade you ” Turn back to shore. ”
The reason is that the delisting channel is not smooth, the valuation of junk stocks is too high, the theme of speculation “cut leek” is prevalent, and the valuation of blue chips is low, resulting in the loss of the resource allocation function of the securities market. road.
The “incurable diseases” that have existed since the opening of these A-shares have undergone a magical reversal as the proportion of foreign capital entering has continued to increase in recent years. The “white horse market” since 2017 has undergone 2018’s After the super big bear market, it reached a small peak in the second half of 2019. The three horse-drawn carriages of liquor, food, and medicine have generally reached the upper edge of historical PE. The value of blue chips has been underestimated for more than ten years, and it has been flat in three years.
This is the biggest question in 2020. Can white horses rise? Will the style rotate to small-cap stocks or even junk stocks?
The answer is in the last month of 2019. MSCI expanded its capacity three times during the year. Passive allocation of foreign capital to A shares came to an end. At first, the market generally predicted that foreign capital would cease to flow, but in December, the Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect channel Every day, foreign capital is still “buy, buy, buy”, everyone understands that people are “true love fans”, sincerelyOptimistic about China’s A shares.
There are also retirement investment funds for U.S. federal employees and military personnel. Under pressure from the “public-sold enemy-selling country” in the United States, there are other reasons for insisting on the allocation of China’s A shares. ?
The style of the market is always determined by the preference of incremental funds. The incremental funds in the history of A shares are generally small retail investors attracted by the big bull market. They like to chase up and sell down, so the style is also biased towards the small market. Stocks, low-priced stocks, junk stocks; when incremental funds become foreign capital in pursuit of sound value, as long as the White Horse style is not “extremely”, it will still be the main opportunity for the secondary market in the next few years.
However, the main line in the next few years does not necessarily reflect the style of 2020. Foreign investment is not a “brain residue”, nor is it a piece of iron. There will be institutions selling when it rises. At present, most of the first-line white horses are valued. Although there is no bubble and there is no obvious underestimation, foreign capital really cares about the deterministic growth of performance. That is to say, In 2020, the first line of white horses will probably make money for performance growth, which means that there is about 15% upside. Some varieties with valuation pressure may only have 10% of the space.
10% of the space plus a few points of cash dividends is basically a small market for a few days. It is indeed a bit embarrassing. If it rises too much in the first half of the year, the white horse will become a pit in the second half of the year. On the contrary, if Baima has been digesting the valuation in the first half of the year, or even the next step due to the explosion of individual companies, then there will be opportunities in the second half of the year.
This rate of return is sufficient for the pursuit of stable value-added funds, but if you want to pursue a rate of return of more than 15%, you must look for other opportunities.
Compared to my optimism about weak cyclical second-line consumption and pharmaceutical white horses, the valuation of these leading varieties was greatly suppressed because of their low certainty last year. The price is very advantageous, as long as the economy is slightly Improvement, it is likely to be the leading gainer (note the premise of “a little improvement in the economy”).
These second-line white horses are mainly concentrated in weak-cycle optional consumption, life services, second-line pharmaceutical stocks, innovative drug dark horses, and stable assets in manufacturing.
Of course, there is still one of the biggest risks for white horse stocks. I will put it in the final “Black Swan and Gray Rhino” section.
Question 2: Is it the turn of the technology stocks and theme stocks?
My answer is biased to yes. I even think that 2020 may be a big year for themed investment. Because of the two prerequisites for theme investment this year.
2020 is the key year to build a well-off society in an all-round way, and it is also the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Do n’t think of it as a slogan. All local governments and relevant ministries are carrying “KPI”. Just kidding—Imagine how your company was hitting performance in the last quarter.
In 2018 and 2019, because the Sino-US trade war disrupted the overall deployment, many policies encountered problems in the first half of their implementation. Therefore, 2020 will be a big year for the economy, the central government and local governments. The goals of the government are easy to agree with, and the domestic stakeholders should suspend the game, and various economic stimulus policies are easily implemented.
In this way, two conditions have emerged in favor of the subject stock: funding and policy. The more definitive topics this year include:
The main line throughout the year: the full bloom of the 5G industry chain. Although the hype of communication equipment has ended and the expected hype of consumer electronics has come to an end, the relevant 5G industry chain also has more deterministic cloud computing, the Internet of Things, the Industrial Internet, edge computing, and more imaginative space. 5G content such as VRAR, HD video, cloud games, etc.
Auxiliary lines throughout the year: autonomous and controllable. Including semiconductor strategy and a series of innovation opportunities brought by the localization of software systems.
Phase opportunities: New energy vehicle policy adjustments overlay the opportunities brought by Tesla’s localization, the opportunities brought by photovoltaic parity access to the Internet, and the unexpected release of 5G equipment and consumer electronics industry chain performance Wait, there must be new themes by the middle of the year.
In addition, from the perspective of the game of funds, due to the implementation of the registration system, the smooth opening of the delisting gate, and the science and technology version of theEndlessly. All of these make everyone’s expectation for the small ticket extremely bad. Once a theme comes out, it will inevitably cause a full upswing, and the expected difference has always been the most important premise of the theme speculation.
So, under the auspices of industrial policy, in the expected game of capital, next year will be a big year for themed investment. But it should be noted that some of these themes will be able to produce results soon, some will be able to produce results in a few years, some are uncertain whether they will be able to produce results, and some are purely hype concepts …
So, the final destiny of these themed stocks may be completely different: The stock price in the previous will not go up and down, but after a wave of speculation in the latter, where does the stock price come from and where to go back; the former is to replace short-term funds with long-term funds The latter is the short-term funds to expel the long-term funds; the former will soon be released even if they chase the high, and the latter may get nothing even if they buy the lowest point.
It is recommended that everyone who participates in the theme stocks should study the fundamentals more, only the former, and half awake and half drunk in operation, otherwise it will be counted at the end of the year. After a wave of roller coasters, the probability is greater than that. On the white horse rose 15%.
The third question: Will strong cyclical stocks counterattack?
Many people have recently asked me about cyclical stock opportunities, because many cyclical stock prices have reached the floor, and the superimposed profit has continued to slump, which seems to be in line with the characteristics of cyclical stocks with high P / E performance and low performance.
However, for the strong cyclical stocks in 2020, I still don’t think there is much opportunity for overall performance.
Periodic stocks are generally divided into three categories, I will analyze them one by one:
The first category is industries related to real estate infrastructure, including steel, cement, building materials and so on. The central government has made it clear that it will not use real estate as a urinal, nor will it use infrastructure to give heartbeat. So there is no overall opportunity for these two related cycles.
However, nothing is absolute. After all, Bao 6 is the goal not mentioned above, and the infrastructure may still have a staged opportunity at some point.
The second category is shipping, nonferrous metals, steel, coal, etc. related to the economic cycle. These are industries that will have overall performance only when the economy is overheating. Obviously, even the most optimistic forecast of the economy is only economic recovery, and it will not quickly reverse the supply-demand relationship in these industries.
The third category is inflation relatedThe most typical agricultural product is the most dazzling pig stock this year.
Because inflation pressure is not yet visible, non-pork stocks will not have a chance as a whole, especially the price of chicken, beef and mutton, will most likely fall.
It is difficult to predict pig stocks, including the situation of swine fever, national policies to curb meat prices, and the impact of imported meat, which makes it difficult to predict the price of meat. In addition, there are too many variables in the amount of slaughter. In an industry of “five-five open” where it is possible to walk, don’t think about making this pure gambling money, let alone listen to agricultural industry analysts’ flicker, they will always see more.
Of course, there is no big opportunity, which does not mean that there are no local strong individual stocks. In these sunset industries that have not grown, the most likely market is the individual stock market caused by the increase in industry concentration. You may need To analyze the trend of concentration of the individual stock industry.
I think that if you really want to do cyclical stocks, you must be very, very patient. In the past, it was like the Spring and Autumn Period, mergers and integrations within the industry were easy, but now every industry is in the Warring States Period, everyone’s strength is very strong, and they will not easily claim out. The time for clearing production capacity has been extended, and it may only be Only when one is desperate and the industry’s overall cash flow is unsustainable will there be an opportunity.
Question 4: Will Feng Shui turn to financial stocks?
I have always been optimistic about the banking industry, and my personal bank allocation is also relatively high. In 2020, I think that the banking stocks will be differentiated, and the risks and opportunities are great.
Looking at the past few years, banking stocks have not differentiated as strongly as other industries. The valuation of the leader is lower than the overseas average level, and some banks with higher risks are experiencing falsely high prices due to the issue of pricing mechanisms that cannot be lower than the net assets.
So, the opportunity lies in a few joint-stock banks with relatively high certainty, very few city commercial banks, and even the four major banks, which have been dragged down by other bank shares.
As one of the few cost-effective varieties in the field, I think there will be a certain opportunity next year. The real risks of bank stocks lie in city commercial banks, rural commercial banks and poorly managed stock banks. I will talk about this in the next link.
But the four major banks are still risky. Once the rise, the Shanghai Stock Index will inevitably rise, but if there is no obvious improvement in the economy, it will cause the funds on the market to take advantage of the opportunity to ship, which will be similar to that in 2018.top.
As for the securities and insurance in financial stocks, they are all typical bull market varieties. If there is no big bull market, there will be no overall market. Of course, the leading one is the white horse stock, which is another Set logic.
Black Swan and Grey Rhino
Since it ’s a black swan, I ca n’t guess it. Since it ’s a gray rhino, you wo n’t feel anything when talking about it. External risks.
The first is the question of the south and northwest, and across the strait.
This is a sensitive issue, and we do n’t allow discussion. You can understand it yourself. Their greatest risk is that next year will be the election year on the other side of the coast and on the other side of the earth. It is likely that they will be used by political figures to conduct political manipulation, which will escalate the confrontation between the two great powers.
The second is the biggest factor that has affected A shares in the past two years.
The current stock market reflects the results of the first phase of negotiations, but this matter must not be too pessimistic before, and it cannot be too optimistic now.
The signing of the contract is no problem at present, but whether it can be executed after signing is a big problem. The terms are flexible, coupled with domestic opponents on both sides, and the impact of the second stage of negotiations. They like to tweet in the middle of the night, and the policy here is opaque. To be sure, things like May 2019 There will be more in 2020.
The third is the property market. I think it may be the “gray rhino” that really needs your vigilance in the next three to five years.
Some people think that real estate stocks have fallen to the floor, and the risks are not great. Obviously, you don’t understand one point: if there is a problem in the property market, the biggest impact is not on the housing prices and the real estate industry chain, but in finance, the stock market bears the brunt.
Because of the wealth management products you bought in the bank before, the high-interest part is invested in real estate infrastructure and local debt. Even if the house price does not fall much, it may also cause the risk of debt default to rise and cause the capital chain to break. Listed companies also affect the funds in the market, especially the latter. Everyone has learned this risk in 2018.
It can be said, The property market has reached this stage today. Rising house prices will focus on risks.The fall in housing prices will explode the risk. Only if this year does not rise or fall off the wire, the risk can be gradually resolved after three or five years, so I say that it will be the largest “gray rhino” in the next five years.
The fourth is the local financial debt crisis.
The above talks about the impact of the property market on local debt, in addition to the impact of industrial policies, because there is often an industrial agglomeration effect in the local area, which causes all losses and prosperity, and areas where local debt is too high. Ability is weak.
The financial crisis has the greatest impact on the debt crisis, especially in various city and rural commercial banks. The financial risks are also “contagious”. The lethality cannot be underestimated. Recently, many people from the banking system have served in local governments, to a certain extent reflecting the central government’s concerns about local finance.
The fifth black swan is the US stock market crash.
Although some people are bearish on U.S. stocks every year, and U.S. stocks reach record highs every year, it does not mean that U.S. stocks will continue to rise forever. Once U.S. stocks undergo drastic adjustments, it will definitely lead to a reduction in foreign investment risk appetite and a large outflow of Stocks, it is likely to bring down the favorite white horse stocks of foreign investors, which will cause the market to panic.
Of course, if it is for this reason alone, it may form the best buying point for 2020 white horse stocks.
Although the real bearishness is unpredictable, there is always a sense of risk. It is also very meaningful for individual investors who do not have a risk control mechanism.
From the WeChat public account of “Idea Seal (ID: sxgy9999)”, telling the concept and method of value investment