Big market, small company.

Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “EdStars” (ID: edstars) < / a>, author EdStars.

From January 10th to January 12th, the first phase of Future Star Innovation Academy will hold its second course in Beijing. In this class, Strategic Investment Director, Strategic Development Center, Good Future Education Group Li Peng From the scale, structure, problems and opportunities An in-depth analysis of the quality education market was made from the perspective, and a market analysis was made according to the structure of subject quality education and extended quality education, online and offline, and pointed out “Big market, small company” The track structure of is conducive to the development of quality education institutions. At the same time, the quality education circuit also has the problem of scattered demand and homogeneous supply. It is not easy to find a breakthrough.

In addition, social traffic, new college entrance examinations, art examinations, and sinking markets have also become favorable factors for the quality education track. It is crucial for entrepreneurs to discover growth models and growth points in them.

The following is the original text (with abridgement):

Let’s first think about what kind of market size quality education is, and according to different algorithms, there are different results.

The optimistic estimate is that the market size is 500 billion yuan; the conservative estimate is that the market size is less than 100 billion yuan. The difference between the two is in the participation rate, the average number of subjects and the customer unit price.

Everyone can understand that quality education is still a 100 billion market. Compared with the K12 market size, K12 is considered to be a market size of about 400 billion. The quality education market is also at the level of 100 billion, which is still a very large market.

Market structure: big market, small company

According to different courses and services, quality education can be divided into two parts, one is subject quality education, and the other is expanded quality education. Why are the K12 subjects of Chinese, mathematics, and English called subject quality education? After changing the name to children’s English, mathematical thinking, and large Chinese, it sounds closer to quality education.

Another dimension of classification is online and offline, online content courses are provided online, and offline is a standardized teaching center.

In addition to 2C quality education institutions, there are also organic 2B quality education institutions. For 2B institutions, the quality education 2C market is also very important. The structure of the C-end market determines the 2B business approach.

Quality education in the broad sense is divided into online and offline, divided into disciplines and quality. However, when we really discuss the quality education market, we still define it in a relatively narrow sense, that is, a market that focuses on offline and expands the business of quality education.
The status quo, problems, and opportunities, the wind of quality education continues to blow

For quality education practitioners, segmentation Who is the biggest competitor of the road, it must be the first place to subdivide the track. The first place determines where the ceiling is.

There is a very interesting point. Let’s take a look at the scale of revenue in the quality education subdivision track. More than one billion people have VIPKID, EF and Xueer Si Peiyou, 500 million are VIP sparring, art treasures, programming cats, Tong Chengtong Mei and Century Mingde, He Xiaoxiang has more than 30 million in a month.

There are only three companies with more than one billion, all of which are subject quality education, which is closely related to K12. There aren’t many extra-ordinary quality education around 500 million.
The status quo, problems, and opportunities, the wind of quality education continues to blow

So you can see a few rules: First, The demand for disciplinary quality education is relatively convergent and scale is easier; second, offline delivery is actually very clear, especially for sports, dance, camps, etc. It is impossible to be online, but must be offline It is very needed, but it has not broken through the bottleneck at present, and it has truly achieved scale. Third, a few expanded quality education categories have been delivered online, but they are not in the perspective of traditional courses. Or teaching perspective.

According to the analysis just now, the overall quality education is a very large market, but the company is relatively small. With the big market and small company structure, everyone can basically reach a consensus.

Demand Analysis: Demand, Supply, and Reality

Why is the market structure of quality education like this? Let’s look at the requirements first.
The status quo, problems and opportunities, the wind of quality education continues to blow

What are the requirements for K12? clear. Why K12’s training service is veryConvergence, because as long as you can increase points, you can go to college. There are two parts to quality education. One part is convergence. For example, if you ask a parent what expectations they have for their children, the three “literate, calculate quickly, and be able to speak” are widely mentioned. This is a further extension of K12 education and Drilling down is the reason why subject quality education can achieve a certain degree of scale.

The other one is more divergent. Some people want their children to be healthy, some people want their children to be creative, some people want their children to sing and play the piano. Every parent has different demands, which is related to the process of parental growth and young The education we have experienced is related, so we see that the quality education for expansion is so scattered and the needs are so diverse.
The status quo, problems and opportunities, the wind of quality education continues to blow

Then look at the supply, I will show you three These three paintings belong to a small partner who entered an art institution as a parent, and the agency sold three paintings. Everyone ’s aesthetics are different. It ’s difficult to judge with a fixed standard. Even if you judge from a professional perspective, it ’s hard to tell which institution ’s children painted it, and it ’s hard to say which work is good. This is a supply-side problem. .
The current situation, problems and opportunities, the wind of quality education continues to blow

Another problem is the serious homogeneity of supply-side products .

You can take a look at the products. The four pictures on the left are the products of the programming company. They are all malleable developments. They are all dragging and dropping blocks. There are some differences in animation and mascot design. On the right is the online children’s English product. The comparison of the products made by the four companies. If you don’t look closely at what the foreign teachers look like, it is difficult to determine which institution the product came from. The product is homogenized to some extent because there are no fixed standards.
The status quo, problems and opportunities, the wind of quality education continues to blow

This market does have some realistic problems. From the perspective of demand, because it is not particularly demanding and the demand does not converge, it is true that many parents prefer geography and location. Within three kilometers from my home, it should not be too far. I don’t want to choose too far.

In another dimension, the user’s life cycle will be affected. When my child is not nervous at schoolYou may choose two more. You may only have one left when you are nervous, and you will not study the others. In fact, quality education is robbing time from children and parents. It ’s robbing time in class. All the time outside K12 study is very limited. It is difficult to choose B if you choose A. You can only choose one or two.

Supply-side products are homogenized, because there is no standardized system and standardized evaluation standards, and they eventually become a sales and operation-driven market. Let everyone have a better experience, make parents feel better, and then choose my service, so in the end it became a very linear business. In another dimension, because people and income become very linear, the level of teachers and sales income is not up. In the field of quality education, the relative income of teachers needs to be in a relatively controllable range, resulting in talents that may not be retained. There are some problems with the retention of teachers and the influx of industry talent.

Opportunity analysis: social traffic, new college entrance examination, art examination and sinking market
The current situation, problems and opportunities, the wind of quality education continues to blow

Decentralized demand is a double-edged sword.

In fact, there are some opportunities in short life cycle and geographical priority. As mentioned earlier, offline delivery is very necessary, especially the quality education offline education model will definitely exist for a long time, and it has long-term vitality. There is still a market for offline quality education.

In addition, similar to the logic of retail, I have seen many retail industries. After I chose a relatively good project, this has a very good foundation for success, and it has become a very core indicator. Another angle that is very similar to retail is that in retail, labor costs are relatively rigid. They will not change much with the change in your income scale, but the efficiency will become a particularly important indicator. . For offline quality education companies, it’s a bit similar.

Finally, because geography is important, a store with a geographical advantage of aggregation effect has a great advantage. This is why the complex is a circuit with huge opportunities. For example, there is such a complex in the community or a place close to the community. The language, pronunciation, sound, beauty, etc. are all around, and supporting services such as catering are very good choices for parents. Geographical advantages, better location, and relative rents are more reasonable. The more cost-effective complex still provides very good fertile ground for quality education.
The status quo, problems and opportunities, the wind of quality education continues to blow

Besides, because the demand is not new and there are no standards to judge, parents especially rely on referrals. K12 is also a better choice, a head company or a famous teacher. In quality education, you do n’t know how. Election, the most frequently asked question is quality education, especially how to choose a relatively long-tail quality education.

In the field of quality education, everyone particularly believes in the power of word of mouth and KOL. This is similar to social e-commerce. The logic of social e-commerce is to spread some knowledge and word of mouth through KOL.

The first type is similar to Pinduoduo, a cost-effective type. It is initiated by one person, and then other friends are invited to participate in the group purchase. Similar models in the education industry include paintings, little lighthouses, and bullfrog fight classes. All are low-priced products that attract social traffic to participate in group fights and bargain purchases, which are more suitable for online products. If offline, there is a problem with the location, and based on your location, the difficulty of purchasing is greatly increased, unless the user can try a similar purchase of this course after reaching a certain density.

The second category is distribution. The target group of education, especially young mothers, is highly coincident with the people who buy beauty and buy on behalf of Haikou, so many distribution companies have begun to explore the field of education. For example, the big V store launched a new brand, Xiao Hapi, which specializes in education. Once a product is sent to mothers for distribution, it is actually the concept of acquaintance society and WeChat. Everyone looks at the choice of Xiao Hapi and his mother, parents of steam, they can achieve 20 to 30 million running water, and indeed provide new channels and ideas.

The third category is content sharing. The content sharing type currently has no best practice in education. Everyone sees, for example, Little Red Book and Worth Buying. They plant grass on the platform. After the grass is planted, there may be some e-commerce models to carry goods. This is in education. No one in the industry is doing practice. However, Xiaohongshu has similar education content. In fact, the people in Xiaohongshu, especially the young women, are highly overlapped with those in early childhood education and quality education. It may be better to make products for 3-8 years old.

The last category is more interesting. It is a community group purchase type. They do group buying and distribution for offline educational institutions. In the beginning, I wanted to do fun, for example, a mother who was on the weekend, worrying about where to take the children to play on the weekend, they got some peripheral resources, and found some KOL mothers. These mothers are the treasured mothers of the community. They said that which art class has recently launched some group purchases and discounts, and group purchases will be cheaper. In fact, it is a particularly good group purchase channel. These people find places where these mothers start to sell and play, and later they can also be used as educational products. This type is especially suitable for group purchases and channels for offline quality education institutions.
The status quo, problems and opportunities, the wind of quality education continues to blow  Current situation, problems and opportunities, the wind of quality education continues to blow

I just mentioned a distribution platform like Mother’s choice and big V store, we can take a look at the quality education products on several of the platforms in October this year, basically familiar with them. Think through the points of the distribution platform, in social traffic, quality There are opportunities in education.
Current situation, problems and opportunities, the wind of quality education continues to blow

What is the relationship between the new college entrance examination and quality education? After research, we think there may be some long-term benefits. The frontiers of the new college entrance examination are Shanghai and Zhejiang. The better schools are more willing to recruit students through a comprehensive evaluation and independent admissions model. Only 18 people recruited by Tsinghua Peking University in Zhejiang were naked, and the remaining 95% were recruited through a comprehensive evaluation of independent enrollment.

In the overall evaluation, there are two aspects of quality education. One is an interview. During the interview process, one’s comprehensive literacy will be considered; the other is the comprehensive quality evaluation of high school. These are two different systems, and each university has some differences when it really chooses the points and weights for comprehensive evaluation according to its own situation and characteristics.

In the specific interview part, the weight of the interview is very large, and some schools account for 30% of the interview, even to some extent, it is even greater than the score difference of the college entrance examination. To some extent, it is the interview decision Who can accept. Interviews are difficult to prepare for in a short time, because the questions are relatively more comprehensive and broad, and include in-depth exploration and discussion on a certain topic. Therefore, this is good for quality education. To improve their quality capabilities.

The new college entrance examination also includes a comprehensive quality assessment of high school. There are certain standards for evaluation, such as physical and mental health, artistic literacy, and social practice. This is a very clear quality education, although the comprehensive quality evaluation score of high school may only be about 10%, and the overall relative score is not high. The difference between classmates and classmates should be based on artistic literacy and social practice.
The status quo, problems and opportunities, the wind of quality education continues to blow

Another benefit to quality education is the art test, which is closely related to quality education. The number of art test each year is still large and stable, with more than one million art test candidates. It is also a very, very good signal for art education.

It is difficult to prepare for the quality of arts in a short period of time, and it is difficult to meet the standards or meet the requirements of the school for two or three months. The art test must pass a relatively long time before the preparation, so the demand will definitely go down, and the stage to K12 will be even earlier.

Some art test takers may not be studying at the junior high school or high school stage, but they have learned art skills in elementary school. They stopped for a few years in the middle. When the college entrance examination needs to be picked up, they should re-familiarize and advance. Learning in related fields as a child is very good for quality education. Some fine arts institutions have extended students’ participation in art examinations from the early purely extended quality education, extending the life cycle and making a deep exploration of the overall quality education.

Art candidates also provide a particularly good channel for the supply of quality education. Many students with special qualities have relatively limited work outlets. Teachers of quality education institutions are also a good way out.
The status quo, problems and opportunities, the wind of quality education continues to blow

The topic of sinking markets is very hot, and Tier 1 cities are Beijing, the second line is Changsha, Suzhou, the third line is Foshan, Dalian, the fourth line is like Linyi Bengbu. In general, the sinking market is very different from what we began to imagine. The more tier-one cities, the more people pay attention to quality. On the contrary, in the sinking cities, parents will think that learning specialties is very important, it is just a need. Different cities have different hot words. Skills, abilities, and skills, are frequently mentioned in high frequency in many third and fourth lines.

In fact, in the third and fourth tiers as a whole, the learning pressure is not so great. Parents in third and fourth tier cities are relatively more enjoyable and have no incentive for their children. In fact, quality education is their core appeal to teaching institutions. On the contrary, like English subject education, no one is as anxious as first-tier city English.

In addition, although the sinking market has a lower income level than the first-tier and second-tier cities, because the house is cheap and does not even need to buy a house, his disposable income may not be less than that in the first-tier cities. In addition, the travel radius is small, and the travel time is greatly shortened, resulting in a lot of free time. Quality education is to grab time with children. Conversely, parents and children have more time, which is beneficial to quality education.

Furthermore, the proportion of second-born children is higher in third-tier and fourth-tier cities than in first-tier cities. Most families have two children or even three children. In disguise, the first child’s service is extended to the second child.

The last point is that the competition in third- and fourth-tier cities is not fierce and the supply is very scarce. If they can solve their problems from scratch, it will already be a very good result. What’s more, the third- and fourth-tier cities’ markets are particularly easy to be educated. How to occupy the mind is very important.
The status quo, problems, and opportunities, the wind of quality education continues to blow

This is a statistical situation in 2019, as of 11 Financing of all subject quality education and online quality education in the month. The institutions marked in red have recently raised more than 200 million yuan, and several institutions in yellow have merged in two rounds within a year.

Everyone knows that 2019 is the capital winter, it is very cold, and some even say that it is the coldest winter since employment. Everyone looks at the financing of quality education. Regardless of the amount of financing, financing rounds, market attention, word of mouth, etc., it is a very good transcript, or you can see that the capital market is very concerned about the quality education of disciplines, and they all have A very good valuation.
Current situation, problems and opportunities, the wind of quality education continues to blow

There are so many reasons for the rapid development of quality education in disciplines Point:

First, it is an incremental market. The quality education of disciplines is a tens of billions of markets. They have taken the K12 early train, but they are not really K12. Its market is relatively new. Market.

Second, there is no unified curriculum for subject-based quality education, and there is no fixed standard like quality education. For example, there is no fixed standard for children’s enlightenment. It depends entirely on how parents evaluate and evaluate. Parents do not have clear requirements for results. Everyone is trying. Therefore, the market is an increase and there is relatively room for demand.

Third, the organization has invested a lot of energy in service, operation and experience.

Fourthly, there are social e-commerce to help speed up. KOL’s delivery model helped the first wave of growth. This is a phenomenon this year, but how long this hot spot can last depends on the production capacity and operation capacity of the content in the long run. Especially the content, because the demand is scattered, because it is not just needed, in fact, a single product category is relatively difficult to penetrate the entire market, so it is best to be able to produce very quickly, it is best to slowly accumulate content, or have professional Rapid mass production of talent. In addition, there is a test of operational capabilities. After truly reaching a certain scale of users, operational management will become very difficult.

To sum up, quality education is a big market and a comparison A good track is a big market without big companies. Challenges and opportunities coexist. At the same time, the real problems are real. At present, we have not seen very good solutions, and we have not seen which companies can make breakthroughs, such as problems with distance and life cycle, such as operations, management, sales channels and talent . However, we must also see many favorable factors, such as the new college entrance examination, art examination, sinking the market, etc., how to find and tap opportunities from it is very important.