The article is from the public account: DT Finance (ID: DTcaijing) , author: DT motionless Jun, title figure: novel coronavirus infection epidemic world map

1960, the year of Gengzi. The nationwide food shortage caused by the ever-expanding drought has allowed the Chinese to start a new year in a famine.

2020 will be another year of Gengzi Rat, and it will be a new crisis. In a panic, the Chinese ushered in another Spring Festival, which is bound to be often mentioned.

During the Spring Festival this year, the search for “pneumonia” and “Wuhan” surpassed “Spring Festival” and “New Year’s Day”, becoming the two key words of Chinese memory about the 2020 Chinese New Year.

(Picture description: Pneumonia, Wuhan, SARS, Chinese New Year, Baidu Search Index for the New Year)

The huge search volume is due to rising epidemic numbers. The latest data show that as of 24:00 on January 25, 1945 cases were confirmed nationwide, a total of 56 deaths, and 21,556 people are still under medical observation.

Rising along with confirmed case data is widespread anxiety and panic, bitterness and anxiety. But we all know that we can really “share the hard times” by referring to known epidemic samples and doing things more calmly.

We have compared the information of the new coronavirus pneumonia and the SARS information 17 years ago. We hope to use this as a reference to help us take a more objective look at what stage of the epidemic is in? As ordinary individuals, what can we do in this epidemic?

Large-scale population movements have further increased the number of confirmed cases.

Next, Beijing received the first imported SARS case on March 6. SARS started with Beijing as a transit point and began to flow from the heart of China to other places.

In contrast, the new type of coronavirus pneumonia, compared with SARS, has promoted the conditions of “population movement” earlier: the Spring Festival transport in 2020 is earlier than in previous years.

In addition, Wuhan, where the epidemic originated, is itself one of the largest transportation hubs in the country, with spreading links extending in all directions.

Both of these are “population” amplifiers, which directly led to the rapid spread of the virus across the country. What followed was growing panic.

It’s a little consoling that the speed of the pathogen identification research is nearly three months faster than that of 2003.

On December 30, the Wuhan Health and Medical Commission issued the “Urgent Notice on the Treatment of Unknown Causes of Pneumonia”, saying that some medical institutions have seen patients with unexplained pneumonia. As of January 7, experts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had isolated the new coronavirus, and had completed the detection of pathogenic nucleic acids on January 10. It was only in mid-April 2003 that a scientific institution completed the sequencing of the entire genome of the coronavirus.

(Picture: A Japanese program evaluates new pneumonia)

Identifying the pathogen can not only be used for clinical screening, designing PCR detection reagents, but also important for subsequent treatment programs and epidemic prevention and control. So in the follow-up news, we can also read from time to time some news that makes people “slightly relieved.”

Compared with clinical screening ability, higher diagnosis rate.

So, even though the new coronavirus pneumonia itself may not be as scary as SARS, it is because of the population flow amplifier we mentioned earlier, as well as earlier diagnosis and faster information transmission.Broadcasting conditions, coupled with the stronger transmission of the virus itself, the outbreak (or the number of people diagnosed) is more rapid than 17 years ago.

Whether it is for the government or individuals, this sudden outbreak has given people shorter preparation time, and panic has come even more quickly.

Hurrying to battle is a great test for any city and people in it.


2

Hubei is difficult now, but it will still be difficult

Because of the experience of SARS, we take it for granted that this should be a battle that can be ended quickly and smoothly.

Wuhan city, or Hubei province, which is in the center of the vortex, has not performed satisfactorily this time. We will not repeat it here. Looking back on accountability does not solve the problem. What’s more important is that there must be sufficient vigilance and presupposition for the next degree of difficulty, and corresponding plans and preparations.

According to the collation of the existing public information, we think that there are two outstanding difficulties. Even if it has been mentioned repeatedly by the media, it cannot be overemphasized.

First, the experience of Beijing during the SARS period can be translated, but the implementation of the city will be different due to different conditions in the city.

Reviewing SARS 17 years ago, the overall prevention and control effect appeared in May. We noticed that from April to May, emergency policies and measures mainly include three aspects:

  • The whole nation mobilized to fight against SARS, and the epidemic was fully disclosed to the public;


  • Regulating public places, transportation, and group activities:


  • Designate designated hospitals to focus on treating SARS-infected patients.

    (Picture caption: content of the editor-in-chief of The Lancet)

    But Su Yiren also said that it is still in the initial stage of the outbreak, and it is impossible to accurately judge the transmission rate and infection rate. The following is a very important observation time.

    This is the message we want to convey. While preventing excessive pessimism, never be blindly optimistic.

    After all, the fortification has just begun.

    As ordinary people, whether in Hubei or elsewhere, we play a very important role in this fight. Here we must continue to emphasize: not letting ourselves be infected is the greatest contribution of our ordinary people; everyone is safe, everyone can be safe.

    Finally, we again present this self-diagnosis guide, which integrates the reports of Wuhan Union Medical College Hospital, National Health Committee, and World Health Organization (WHO), hoping to help everyone, protect themselves and their families, The necessary panic.