A TOP20 real estate executive vice president pointed out that for real estate companies, it is estimated that sales in the first quarter will decrease year-on-year, but from the perspective of the whole year, the negative impact is not expected to be too great.

Editor’s note: This article is from Economic Observer Online , Author: Chen Bo, reproduced with permission.

Yu Li (pseudonym) is anxiously waiting for the company’s holiday notice.

She is a salesperson in a third-tier city of a TOP3 housing company. A new type of coronavirus infection pneumonia came fiercely. The sales office of her project has not been closed at present, but the outreach and all large-scale activities are only suspended, and only the customers who come naturally are received.

Yu Li’s company provided masks for the staff at the crime scene, but Yu Li was still in a bad mood. According to the TOP3 housing enterprise regulations, project staff have a rest period of 4.5 days per month. During the Spring Festival, the public holiday time is 5.5 days, and they can be adjusted daily. “In the past two days, see if the sales office will issue a notice. If I don’t, I will quickly retire.” Yu Li said.

While Yu Li was waiting for the holiday notice, at 19:00 on the evening of January 26, the China Real Estate Industry Association issued a proposal letter, in order to effectively prevent the spread of the pneumonia epidemic, it was proposed that real estate development enterprises should temporarily suspend sales activities at the sales office. Resume after the outbreak.

According to incomplete statistics from the Economic Observation Network, as of press time, more than 25 cities across the country, including 14 prefecture-level cities in Guangxi Province, announced the suspension of mass gathering activities such as new openings or large-scale sales of real estate for sale.

Among them, the sales office of commercial housing in more than 90% of the cities has been temporarily closed and the stores of real estate agencies have been suspended. Some cities have even closed the online signing system and suspended housing transactions. Cities such as Leshan require construction sites to stop construction.

A series of “pauses” under the influence of the epidemic, the real estate market is undergoing subtle changes. “Our real estate is an industrial investment project. During the Spring Festival, there were not many people. During the four or five days of the New Year, the number of daily house visits was 0.” Yu Li told Economic Observation Network.

According to the past marketing practices of housing companies, the peak demand for returning home buyers around the Spring Festival. The “Return to Hometown Survey Report 2019-2020” released by the same city and Anjuke on January 58 showed that cities such as Chengdu, Nanjing, Nanchang, and Fuzhou were all included in the return hometown hotspot cities. These cities are on the “stop” list.

“Some real-estate properties in key second-tier cities or third- and fourth-tier cities pay more attention to returning homes. Once sales income is not obtained during the Spring Festival, it will have a relatively large impact. Heyuan, Chaoshan, Meizhou, Zhanjiang of Guangdong Province In other cities, for example, in the past years, they mainly returned to their hometowns to buy homes. At this point in time, a batch of newly needed or improved real estate is usually launched. “A regional head of a housing company in Fujian said, but real estate or investment in densely populated first-tier cities Sex isThe main market will not have a big impact. The Spring Festival itself is a low season.

A salesperson in the Tianjin area of ​​a Hong Kong-listed real estate company also told the Economic Observer website that his real estate has not been closed for the time being. “It is a custom of Tianjin people not to buy a house in the first month. This city is mainly digested by customers who settle in other places. Every year, foreigners return to their hometowns, and the number of customers decreases.

The sales performance of the market will eventually be mapped into the sales performance of real estate enterprises. Usually in a year’s marketing node arrangement, real estate companies will regard the second quarter as an important sales node in the first half of the year, and March in the first quarter as Xiaoyangchun to sprint sales performance.

A TOP20 executive vice president of housing companies pointed out that for housing companies, sales in the first quarter are expected to decrease year-on-year. plate.

The person in charge of the above-mentioned Fujian-based housing enterprises said that the current impact on housing enterprises is currently unclear, “but Xiaoyangchun in the first quarter is definitely not working. The SARS period was also the low point of the property market.”

SARS lasted more than half a year in 2003. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of that year, in February 2003, the sales area of ​​commercial residential buildings nationwide was 0. In the subsequent March-April, the monthly sales area of ​​commercial residential buildings increased by 28.0% and 22.2% year-on-year, but the epidemic situation was effectively controlled. From May to June, the year-on-year growth rate rose to 42.2% and 33.9%.

From the annual data, in the whole year of 2003, the floor space of newly started real estate development enterprises nationwide was 547 million square meters, an increase of 28% year-on-year; the sales area of ​​commercial housing reached 337 million square meters, an increase of 26% year-on-year; The transaction value of commercial buildings nationwide also reached 795.6 billion yuan, an increase of 31.9% compared to 603.2 billion yuan in 2002.

It can be seen that the entire SARS epidemic has had a downward impact on the quarterly property market, but has limited impact on annual data.

The person in charge of the above-mentioned Fujian-based housing enterprises told the Economic Observation Network that the impact period of the epidemic on the property market depends on the resolution time. Long before the outbreak, most housing companies expected the property market in 2020 to be lower than in 2019. “This epidemic exacerbates the downward expectations of housing companies.”