This article is from WeChat public account: Hou Anyang Investment Notes (ID: SSRStouziganhuo), author: investment assets Hou Anyang, director of charity.
From the 20th, we have done data tracking and statistics. I wrote an article before, which contained a review of the SARS epidemic, and large-scale prevention and control is the beginning of things getting better.
However, from the principle point of view, after the large-scale control is started, the confirmed cases will soar for a period of time (the SARS period is nearly two weeks) before they come down. This is sometimes lagging.
The real large-scale control of this new type of pneumonia was the moment when the epidemic was announced on the 20th, and it quickly rose into a global event, which was widely reported.
We have followed this data to this day, and we are starting to see exciting signs. It is more than a week since the large-scale control on the 20th.
First, the source of this data is Lilac Garden, and the data of Lilac Garden comes from the National Health and Medical Commission.
The authenticity of the data is there. The reliability is good. It should be divided into Hubei and non-Hubei regions. The outbreak came from Hubei. Hubei officials have acknowledged that the earliest announcement was not timely. Hubei’s data are problematic.
However, non-Hubei data has much higher reliability. It wasn’t their fault that caused them, and other provinces were also victims. From the current situation, other provinces can publish data instead of maintaining official positions, and concealed data but have to be dealt with. Therefore, data outside Hubei are generally reliable.
Go to the topic and talk about our analysis.
1. Outside Hubei, the number of cases is effectively controlled
The number of confirmed cases yesterday has soared sharply. The day before yesterday was 2,744 cases. By yesterday, it had become 4,515 cases. Although this data has soared a lot,The concealment of squeezing and releasing is very important.
Among these 4,515 cases, Hubei is 2,714, while the total outside Hubei is 1,801.
This is the stock situation. It is the data of every confirmed case.
If we look at the newly added data, the data outside Hubei, the increase in the past few days, basically between 300-500, does not show the nature of exponential growth, the exponential growth is the most terrifying.
And Hubei’s own newly confirmed cases have surged yesterday, with 1291 more cases. This result can be said that some officials need to be responsible. The concealment of previous reports and the lack of manpower and equipment these days have made it impossible to report the true number of diagnoses. Based on the news that medical personnel and medical equipment delivered to Wuhan in more than thirty years of the year, Hubei ’s soaring diagnosis data has a great relationship with the injection of medical resources into Hubei, indicating that the local disease has begun to be diagnosed and treated on a large scale.
2. The number of new suspected cases has decreased
This number is particularly exciting today!
From the process of confirming the condition, there are suspected cases first, and then the diagnosis is confirmed. If a suspected case is brought under control, the number of confirmed cases will start to come under control.
From the data of the whole country, the number of newly confirmed people (the orange line in the figure above) was 2,077 people yesterday, and 3,806 people the day before yesterday. From the announcement on the 20th to the present, the first time it has decreased!
Here is the decrease in “new suspected cases”. In fact, the total amount is still increasing (blue line in the figure above). As long as there are new people, the total amount is still increasing, saving everyone from misunderstanding. . However, the number of new observations is particularly core, which means that the spread of the epidemic is still manageable.
Also, this data also depends on the investment of medical resources, because if the medical resources are insufficient, or if the patients get sick but not treated, they will not be counted.
3. The mortality rate outside Hubei Province is relatively low. Do n’t be too scared to scare yourself to death
Let me post this mortality data first.
From the data point of view, the highest mortality rate in Hubei before was 5.4% (compared to the SARS-related mortality rate at the time when medical resources were developed was 17%).
In these days, Hubei ’s cumulative mortality data has begun to decline, and the latest cumulative mortality data is 3.7%. This has something to do with the large increase in the number of confirmed diagnoses in Hubei. The concealment of data in the previous period led to the increase in mortality data.
The cumulative mortality rate outside Hubei is 3 per thousand.
Why HubeiWill it be an order of magnitude different from those outside Hubei?
We speculate for two reasons. First, there are few cases outside Hubei Province and medical resources are relatively sufficient. Secondly, areas outside Hubei Province have prepared in advance to give priority to the treatment of new coronaviruses.
In the past few days, with the strengthening of prevention and control measures, we can also see a surge in data, that is, the number of close contacts across the country.
The soaring of this data indicates the escalation of national prevention and control measures. People who have been exposed to suspected cases have been isolated, which will greatly help curb the spread of the disease.
The purpose of writing this article is to let more people know the actual situation. In the hearts of people, we see good information come out and share with you in time. This is not forcing positive energy. My principle is to be pragmatic. If you have good things, you must say good things, and if you have bad things, you must say bad things.
I believe more good news will come out in the next few days.