This article first appeared on the WeChat public account “Thought Steel Seal (ID: sxgy9999)”.

If there is something that has a profound impact, we must not know it.

1. Black swan really happened this time

The Investor Book List was issued as planned the day before yesterday. As a result, everyone was leaving messages asking about the impact of the epidemic on the market outlook. In fact, I sent two articles in the snowball before, and I clearly predicted that there would be a wave of decline, and it was on the Tuesday and Tuesday that (but in terms of reading volume) See, not many people see it, it will be sent directly to the public account next time) .

As a veteran investor who has experienced 03 years, when there were sporadic speculations on the push station in mid-January, I was actually very vigilant. By the 19th, (Sunday) Cases surged (Actually, I know that the cover can’t be covered) , you know that this time it really happened The black swan is out, so before the opening of the (Monday) on the 20th, I never talked about the broader market, and sent a “black swan” on the snowball. Early warning.

Tuesday, the market disaster is still on the way to speculating in pharmaceutical stocks, and my judgment is clear. This is a major negative event at the SARS level.

In this article, after comparing the market prices in 2003, my conclusion is:

But this article was written in a hurry. The conclusion is only about what to do at the time. It is a bit abrupt. Now that I have time, I will basically discuss the three parts of psychology, style and opportunity. Talk about my opinion.

2, psychological impact

This part is the forecast part of that article. Now it looks basically accurate.

The general background of the 2003 A-share trend is the four-year big bear market from 2001 to 2005. During the four years, the Shanghai index fell from 2245 points to998 points, this period of decline is characterized by a wave of spring “eating quotes” every spring. The parties to the market discard their differences and work together to make a year’s profit. Low innovation.

The same is true in 2003. The stock market ’s new low in the previous year basically started a wave of spring prices, which rose from 1311 points to 1649 points on April 16, the highest increase was 25%. On the 16th.

What happened on April 16th? The World Health Organization announced that the virus had been found, officially named SARS virus, and some vigilant funds retreated in the market frenzy.

The first case of that year actually occurred in November 2002, and it began to break out in Guangdong in February 2003. The first deceased medical staff appeared at the end of March, but because there was no response experience, coupled with some The reason has not been taken seriously.

So the stock market during this time did not respond.

The real start of the decline was on April 21st, the day fell by nearly 2%, and fell below 10 antennas. The reason was that the outbreak was officially announced the previous day on April 20 (equivalent to January 20 this year), and there were three iconic events: the number of confirmed SARS patients and suspected cases in Beijing increased exponentially; they were officially listed as legal infectious diseases; and the vice mayor of Beijing Dismissed.

We should all be impressed by the following things. Suspension and suspension of classes, isolation and isolation, the whole country will fight against SARS. In fact, the epidemic has been brought under control since May, so from the perspective of transmission, SARS is not as severe as this year’s virus.

A wave of declines that started on April 16 lasted 7 trading days and fell by only 10%, not even half of the increase. In fact, it is already a vent of emotion.

After that, the market felt that it was almost the same. In the three most vigorous months of fighting SARS, the broad market has been trading sideways near the half-year line.

The real impact of atypical pneumonia is that after the epidemic is under control, everyone is gradually realizing that the impact of isolation on the entire economic operation is fatal. Poor GDP data in the second quarter aggravated market economic expectations in the second half of the year. It’s awful, the stock market is down.

When the GDP came out in the third quarter, I found that it had returned to more than 9 points, and realized that the situation was not so bad. The broad market launched a round of New Year’s Eve market near the new low-in fact, it was the spring market of 2003. Style continues.

However, I would like to remind everyone that the market trend in 2003 has no reference value, because the A-share market in 2003 was still a retail game market, and the stock’s response to the national economy is far less than it is now.

What ’s most valuable is the psychological response mode that I mentioned above in the case of sudden negatives: before the epidemic was not disclosed, everyone underestimated the impact (this is also the case this year, giving me a three-day escape period) After the epidemic became public, everyone overestimated the impact (most likely this year).

In 2003, I participated in the hype of Hengshun Vinegar Industry. This year, I happened to hold Hengshun Vinegar industry again. The stock’s two trends are almost the same. This is why I think the SARS trend may not be repeated, but the operational psychology is repeatable. The evolution of human heart is really slow.

Therefore, the question of how much the opening of the market after the holiday is most concerned is not important at all, because afterwards, if it falls more, it will rise back, it will fall less, and it will make up again.

The second thing worth studying is the influence on market style and nature. To understand the impact of a public health event on the stock market, we must understand the general context of the entire market in 2003.

3. Influence on market style and nature

What is the impact of SARS on the stock market? Used to be big. In the months of April to June, I remember that the headlines of the securities newspaper at that time were the number of new cases, and then the securities information. Many shareholders also decided to operate based on this data.

Most articles reviewing the 2003 economy are inseparable from the impact of SARS. However, if you search the 2003 stock market review online, you will find that there are very few articles mentioning the impact of SARS. So, even with this serious epidemic, if we expand our horizons, its impact on our entire investment will be a small wave in the long river.

In contrast, the biggest impact on A-shares in 2003 was a sector market: five golden flowers.

2003 has a particularly important meaning for the Chinese stock market. It is known as the “watershed of value investing.” The previous market was basically dominated by stocks, no one cares about performance, no one Look at the fundamentals. In 2003, it was a typical “two-eight blue chip market” similar to 2017. The index rose by 10% and public funds made 20%, but most of the stocks were falling, especially junk stocks and Zhuang stocks. Most shareholders At a loss.

The “Five Golden Flowers” market in 2003 is actually the first market in A-share history to hold high “value investment” and high-performance growth in the five major sectors of the automobile, finance, steel, petrochemical and power sectors. Throughout the year, it was repeatedly active. Large-cap stocks overwhelmed small-cap stocks for the first time. Baosteel, China Merchants Bank, SAIC, and Yangtze Power were all long bull stocks that were born that year. Many shareholders (including me) also went for the first time. Pay attention to the fundamentals of the industry space and performance growth of the shares held by the company.

The reason for this change is that China ’s public equity funds held more than 5% of the shares for the first time, and QFII entered A shares for the first time in the second half of the year. These two basic forces of future value investment started to affect the market as new funds. .

Take the newly-entered QFII as an example. Because QFII is characterized by “difficult to get in, harder to go out”, so they are all long-term funds such as overseas pensions. They look long and have been in a downward trend throughout the second half of the year. China quietly underestimated the underestimated varieties of nonferrous metals such as iron and steel. In the first half of 2004, it finally pushed the “Five Golden Flowers Market” into the main upsurge.

The logic behind public funds and QFII to promote the market lies in that 2003 was the second year after China’s accession to the WTO. The “Five Golden Flowers” represented two opportunities. Finance, steel, petrochemical and power are the national economy. Pull the most obvious fourThe upstream resource-heavy resource industry is cyclical, and the auto industry represents a rise in the number of cars held by China ’s middle-class consumption upgrade.

The name “Five Golden Flowers” also missed an important sector of the year-real estate. Vanke’s increase of more than 40% in 2003 was equally good.

So, the core logic of several major sectors of the super bull market in 2005-2007 and the super rebound in 2009 were all rehearsed in 2003-2004. Anti-fall plate.

From today ’s “rear view” perspective, the logic of SARS affecting the market is very obvious. SARS affects the economic trend from one quarter to six months, and “Five Golden Flowers” ​​represents the future Chinese economy The super trend of the golden decade.

The reason why megatrends are often “too big to see” is that small trends are often contrary to megatrends. After the “Five Golden Flowers” market in 2004 ended, A shares entered the darkest moment. All The stocks went down together, “value investment” was seen as a laughing stock, and Buffett became a big liar.

The market under the epidemic situation must have a perspective beyond the epidemic situation. The main line of the market before the market show, there is a big logic in the next few years, interrupted by the epidemic situation, it is the most worthy opportunity during the epidemic .

Of course, it is not yet possible to say what is the biggest impact of the epidemic, because the real impact is unknown to us.

4, the ones that really have a profound impact on the market are unknown to us

Influential industries, this year, as in 2003, film, television, aviation, aviation, hotel business, etc.

But it ’s deep, everyone is going toOne more step. One is that these industries have retaliatory consumption. The biennial tourism plan is delayed and the proportion of travel in the second year will increase significantly.

It is more important to pay attention to policy changes. In May 2003, when SARS was most raging, the country promulgated policies, and industries affected by SARS, such as civil aviation tourism, would enjoy 5 months. Tax incentives.

There was also a policy in 2003, which was also originally designed to deal with the impact of SARS. This is the “Document 18” of real estate, announcing that there is no bubble in the real estate market and requiring various places to “no policy barriers.”

As everyone knows now, This real estate rescue policy has had a profound impact on the Chinese economy, far exceeding SARS itself.

So, how to judge the impact of one thing on the market, I think there are two rules:

First, if it is a part that everyone knows, it means that it has affected the market, but it is not important.


1. The impact of the epidemic situation has been reflected in the decline on January 22 and 23 and the opening on February 3;

2. Everyone’s concerns about the severity of the epidemic will soon be reflected in the opening on February 3 and the trend throughout the day.

So, it doesn’t matter how much the market will fall on February 3, because it is a fleeting “floating loss”-

Second, the things that really matter are things that have n’t happened, are about to happen, or do n’t know what has happened. Including:

1. Everyone knows what will happen, but no one can predict the results:

This refers to a series of policies to be issued by the central government. The epidemic will almost certainly have an impact on the economy in the first half of the year, and the country will certainly have hedging policies. How much water is put, and which industries will get the real estate policy of that year. Will the urinal of real estate be used again? This is the most important factor in determining the trend in 2020.

2. The market is worried about it, but no results appear

If February 3The day-to-day opening fell much more than a certain point generally expected by the market (depending on the development of the epidemic in the past few days), then it indicates that the market has more concerns than the epidemic itself. If it proves not so bad later, there will be retaliatory increases.

3. Major changes that have happened or are about to happen, but you have n’t noticed

Are there any effects that everyone has ignored? This can only theoretically point out the possibility of its existence. I don’t know if it is or what it is. I can only go one step at a time.

Knowing what you do n’t know is the greatest self-protection. Do n’t easily believe anyone ’s judgment of the epidemic. This is God ’s perspective. Knowing what you know (the circle of competence) is the highest investment principle. Do n’t take it easy. The outbreak affected his previous judgment.

In the prediction of the black swan, someone commented that he was always thinking of the black swan, and he couldn’t make a big deal. My reply is:

Think about things, not let everyone scare themselves. In a market where A-share retail games are common, you only need to think one step more than ordinary people. Under special circumstances, your action can be one step faster.

This step may be the “winner”.

Finally, a few key points of this article:

1. Before the epidemic was not made public, everyone underestimated the impact. After the epidemic was made public, everyone overestimated the impact;

2. The epidemic situation is a small trend. Not only will it not affect the megatrend, but it will be the best mobile phone conference for the megatrend. Pay attention to those sectors and stocks that have not been hyped up as “epidemic themes” but are resilient; / strong>

3. If it is a part that everyone knows, it has already produced the marketInfluence, not important;

4. If there is an event that has a profound impact on the market, we must not know it now.