What entrepreneurs need to think about is not the length of the epidemic, but that once the habits change, consumers will not be able to turn back.

Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “Inspur New Consumption” (ID: lcxinxiaofei) , Author Pan Yuxin.

Under the impact of the black swan epidemic, most of the store’s demand is temporarily disintegrated, and offline retail is in a hurry.

But at the same time, new demands for home scenes are constantly being created. How to meet these new needs has become the last straw for offline and related companies to save themselves. From restaurants selling ingredients and beautiful food to 2C, to Evergrande’s online house sales, and full-time micro-businesses on the same journey, we are witnessing a large-scale consumer transformation and value chain reconstruction.

But which of these changes are short-term phenomena and which will translate into long-term trends? What kind of business has a chance to survive? How should we judge at this stage and find the strategy and tactics that match our own?

On February 17, during the third sharing session of Inspur New Consumer Member’s New Year’s Class, Pan Yuxin, founding partner of Langran Capital, took a two-hour in-depth sharing to disassemble the long-term trends and short-term trends catalyzed by the epidemic. Fengkou, and gave a set of highly operational judgment models on how companies choose now.

Pan Yuxin has been a core executive at Lianhua Supermarket for a long time. He has over fifteen years of retail venture capital experience. He is very familiar with supermarkets, convenience stores, community fresh produce, and drugstores.

The full text is more than 25,000 words. This article only intercepts some exciting content. The following is the text:

Dear retail colleagues, I am very glad to have the opportunity to share with Inspur New Consumers about the impact of the black swan epidemic on consumption, especially the retail industry, and some of my judgments on future trends.

Introduce yourself first. I used to work in the retail industry for 20 years, and now I’m a venture capitalist. We also focus on new retail and medical and health industries. So I think more from the perspective of the entire industry rather than the specific enterprise:

What will happen in the future? How will existing businesses be affected? Which companies can survive and which ones may not survive? Then they will develop and match the corresponding strategies and tactics for them.

First, when the epidemic black swan blows to the retail ecological tree

1. No one can stand alone

Speaking of this outbreak, we must talk about the term black swan. There is a very good saying in the book “Black Swan”:

“Unpredictable things are drastically changing the future, and extreme events must be treated as starting points, not as accidents.”

Every black swan incident will bring major economic, industry, corporate, and personalinfluences. For example, in the US 911 incident in 2001, although the direct casualties were less than 3,000, the indirect loss caused by the 911 incident was as high as 4 trillion US dollars.

It has had a significant impact on the US air transport, insurance, and advertising industries. As the number of tourists plummeted, the entire wine travel business plummeted to a quarter before the 9/11 incident.

An event can cause a series of industry impacts, so don’t think that the black swan has nothing to do with us.

Under the overall economic situation in China, no one person, enterprise or industry can survive alone. This epidemic is really not an impact on specific companies. The epidemic is just a small butterfly. It will have a major impact on China and even the global economy in the next 5 to 10 years.

2. Impact on the retail industry

Under the epidemic, the short-term catalysis and long-term competition of consumer segments

To talk about the impact of the retail industry, we must first know what the retail industry is and what formats it has. This is the format tree of the retail industry I make.

Modern retail industry started from the first department store in Paris, France in 1852. With the advancement of demand, income and technology, it has been continuously changing all the way, forming such a colorful retail format tree.

This tree will continue to grow, but now the black swan blows over, it will have a significant impact on many of the formats in it. Of course, some are bullish and some are bullish.

But during the epidemic phase, all needs have become “yes”. As long as it matches my needs, the corresponding goods and services can be obtained by me.

In order to meet the need for “yes”, four different effects have been produced: scarcity, delay, substitution, and abandonment.

Under the epidemic, the short-term catalysis and long-term competition of consumer segments

Some products are scarce, and related products, brands, and retailers are lacking. Health related items such as masks, necessities such as freshness. It is good to be able to buy it when it is scarce. At this time, it is not meaningful to consider “how fast and save money”.

Second, delayed demand, such as clothing, weddings, wedding banquets, wedding photography, offline social networking