This article is from the WeChat public account: Three Fish Investment Theory (ID: Sanyu1166) , author: three fish, the subject map from: IC photo
Tonight, I’m doomed again, I didn’t want to finish it after I wrote 《美股 After dark time, 12 self-help manuals , it has not been two days.
The US stock has blown for a second time!
History has been witnessed again in a few days.
In the daytime, a number of countries have seen melting tides, and gold, a safe haven, has also collapsedBitcoin has collapsed.
Global capital markets have almost fallen.
This time, even Buffett said in an interview that he had not seen this battle for 89 years.
I don’t have much to say about self-rescue. Everyone goes to read the previous article by themselves. Now it seems that this article makes you not to copy the bottom for now, and a series of suggestions such as reserve cash to deal with the shock are quite correct.
Next, I do n’t talk much nonsense, I think The biggest question in the market now is whether there is a financial crisis in the global market or has it entered the Minsky moment?
一 、
What is Minsky moment? The so-called Minsky moment refers to the moment described by American economist Hyman Minsky, that is, the moment when asset prices collapse.
Minsky’s point is simple and clear: mainly the long-term stability of the economy may lead to increased debt and rising leverage, which in turn breeds the risk of an outbreak of the financial crisis and falling into a long deleveraging cycle from the inside.
When the economy is good, investors tend to take more risks. As the economy continues to improve, the level of risk that investors take will be greater until it breaks over the imbalance point. This speculative asset prompts lenders to recover the borrowed money as quickly as possible.
“It is like leading to a moment of asset value collapse”.
Minsky always indicates the turning point between market prosperity and recession. It seems that the market is now approaching such edge nodes.
Today, the stock markets of at least 8 other countries have melted down, including: Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, and so on.
Among them, Brazil has fallen 12% since the opening. This is alreadyThe third time in the past 5 trading days. British, German, French, Italian and other stock markets have continued to fall more than 30% in the past three weeks.
It can be said that confidence in the capital market is completely collapsing.
But after all, to understand the status quo, you have to find the crux.
二 、
There are no two crises in the world that are exactly the same, but the causes of each crisis are similar, that is, the debt Ponziness, which is mentioned in Minsky’s moment, everyone is blindly optimistic, blindly raising debt, and finally To the edge of unsustainability.
Let ’s take a look at what happened in the ten-year bull market in the US stock market before these two fuses.
In the global low interest rate environment, a large number of U.S.-listed companies have issued debt repurchases to push up their stock prices, using financial leverage to the extreme.
Repurchase has become the most important driving force for the rise of US stocks. For example, Apple, which we are all familiar with, sees news that stocks are being repurchased.
According to the Federal Reserve, since 2009, the largest buyer of the U.S. stock market is actually the company itself.
Under this operating structure, the relative level of US corporate debt has reached historical highs, but the quality of debt has been declining.
At the same time, the entire US stock valuation has deviated too much from his intrinsic value, but the market can always forcibly continue to recover from liquidity and the like.
At the same time, we know that since the subprime crisis, long-term easing has made monetary and fiscal policy space smaller than in previous cycles.
And once such a loose situation can no longer be supported, the entire system will face systemic problems, turning into financing difficulties, falling stock prices, more difficult financing, and further falling stock prices.
So that ’s why, no matter what the reason is, everyone must think that US stocks must stand upThe reason, because the entire prosperity chain cannot be broken.
Until this epidemic spread globally.
三 、
In the early morning of March 12, 2020, we received a big news: The World Health Organization (WHO) officially recognized that the new crown Pneumonia enters a “global pandemic” state.
This means that the spread of the global epidemic is no longer a veil, but a reality that must be faced.
On the same day today, Tom Hanks announced that he and his wife had been diagnosed. For the Gump actor who played Forrest Gump, you can imagine his influence and impact.
In fact, this is often the case, you know I know everyone knows, but as long as the scene is passable, the game can continue to play.
But some people say that I’m sorry the hole card is about to be lifted, the whole situation is hard to say.
The situation can be extremely severe at present. If it is just a normal stock disaster, some confidence recovery measures can also be used to recover blood.
However, the epidemic has reached an outbreak abroad.
The United States announced that it will cease all round trips between the United States and Europe (excluding the United Kingdom) from March 13. The time limit is tentatively set at 30 days.
This is probably the most stalled time in the European and American economies.
Imagine that even hard-core management like China will take at least three months to reverse the outbreak. For many countries that have just entered the alert period, the economy will also be under extreme pressure in the future.
At the moment of global economic integration, no one can stand alone, especially after the 18-year asset crisis in the global economy, which has not recovered from it.
So, you asked me if there was any crisis in the end.
I don’t think it’s worth the real systemic risk compared to subprime loans.
Although US stocks have fallen so violently, there are two points to a large extent. Before a US stock valuation bubbleIt does exist, but this time it was severely released through the epidemic.
The sentiment in the market is indeed too heavy, not a problem at the root of the economy.
From this point, although we cannot rely on these two fuses to assert that the crisis has really arrived for us, the alarm bell has no doubt sounded.
四 、
Finally, I’m also optimistic.
Because the stock market is expected to be released ahead of time, basically if the European and American stock markets can stabilize in the future, it will prove that it is only the emotional release of the epidemic and oil prices in the past few days.
Facing this situation, central banks around the world will definitely release a lot of liquidity as a hedge, and the government will also launch a corresponding stimulus plan.
Also, our epidemic is basically under control, so our economy will recover faster than the world.
The stock market is also strong enough. Although the global stock market has plummeted by 10% from the start price, the A50 is still very strong, and has now fallen by only 2%.
I hope A shares will stabilize on the opening Friday.
As for when I can make a bottom.
Ask yourself five questions first.
Listen to Dr. Zhang Wenhong again.
Nothing wrong.
This article is from WeChat public account: Three Fish Investment Theory (ID: Sanyu1166) , author: three fish